According to “Serbian Economist”, Serbia is gradually becoming one of Ukraine’s most prominent Balkan trading partners. According to data from the Experts Club analytical center, in the first half of 2026, Serbia ranked 33rd among the country’s 50 largest trading partners, with bilateral trade totaling $345.9 million.
Serbian exports to Ukraine totaled $243.2 million, while Ukrainian exports to Serbia amounted to $102.7 million. In June alone, trade between the countries totaled $55.8 million. The balance currently favors Serbia: Ukraine’s bilateral trade deficit reached $140.5 million.
The trend toward Serbia strengthening its position became apparent as early as late 2025 and early this year. In the first quarter of 2026, Serbian exports to Ukraine doubled compared to the same period last year, while Ukrainian shipments to the Serbian market increased by 5%. About 900 Serbian companies are involved in trade between the two countries, of which approximately 670 purchase Ukrainian products.
One of the factors contributing to the development of these ties was the full restoration of Serbia’s diplomatic presence in Kyiv. The embassy, which had suspended operations in 2022, returned to the Ukrainian capital at the end of 2024 and officially resumed operations in new premises in the fall of 2025. The mission is currently headed by Ambassador Andon Sapundži.
The opening of the embassy alone does not determine the volume of trade, but a permanent diplomatic mission facilitates contacts between companies, chambers of commerce, and government agencies. It can also help organize business missions, resolve logistical and consular issues, and prepare new intergovernmental agreements.
The next important step could be the resumption of free trade negotiations and achieving a breakthrough on this issue. For Serbia, Ukraine remains a large market with high demand for food, industrial products, equipment, and reconstruction supplies. For Ukrainian companies, Serbia could become not only a sales market but also a logistics hub for expanding into other countries in the Western Balkans.
Data on all of Ukraine’s major trading partners is available here — https://www.experts.news/posts/analiz-naybilshykh-torhovelnykh-partneriv-ukrayiny-v-pershomu-pivrichchi-2026-roku
According to Experts.news, on July 20, U.S. President Donald Trump signed three executive orders imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain goods from Canada. The new rates are set to take effect on August 19, 2026, and will cover Canadian imports worth approximately $20 billion, or about 5.2% of all goods shipped from Canada to the U.S. in 2025.
Washington justifies this decision by citing discrimination against American automobiles, alcoholic beverages, and dairy products in the Canadian market. However, the U.S. tariffs are not limited to these specific goods. The White House has compiled three broad lists of Canadian products intended to exert economic pressure on various sectors of the country.
Which Products Will Be Affected by the Tariffs
The first group includes virtually all major types of Canadian-produced alcoholic beverages: beer, wine, vermouth, cider, other fermented beverages, ethyl alcohol, whiskey, rum, gin, vodka, liqueurs, and other spirits. The tariff will be levied in addition to standard customs duties.
The alcohol proclamation is a response to the decision by most Canadian provinces to halt the purchase and sale of American alcohol. According to the White House, imports of alcoholic beverages from the U.S. to Canada fell by 81% between March 2025 and February 2026—from $718 million to $137 million.
The second group covers dairy products and ingredients for the food industry. The list includes dry and concentrated milk, cream, whey, lactose, milk proteins, casein, and certain mixtures based on dairy components. These products are used not only in retail but also in the production of confectionery, baby food, sports nutrition, baked goods, and ready-to-eat food mixes.
Washington cites Canada’s tariff quota system for cheese as the reason for this decision. The U.S. argues that the terms of access for American suppliers to the Canadian market are less favorable than those granted to European Union producers under the CETA agreement.
The third and broadest list includes products not directly related to the automotive sector. Among them are cement, seeds and planting material, flowers, honey, certain food ingredients, essential oils, cosmetics, plastic products, packaging, paper products, wood panels, and furniture.
The list also includes clothing, textiles, footwear, leather goods, headwear, wigs, tools, fishing rods, swimming pools, and some sports equipment, including hockey sticks and other hockey gear.
Thus, the U.S. measures could affect both large industrial enterprises and small manufacturers of wine, furniture, clothing, cosmetics, sporting goods, and gardening products.
Which goods will not be subject to the new measures
The White House has excluded Canadian energy products, potash fertilizers, fish, and critical minerals from the new regime. Goods already subject to U.S. Section 232 sector-specific tariffs—including many types of steel, aluminum, copper, wood, cars, trucks, and pharmaceutical products—will not be subject to additional tariffs.
This limits the immediate scope of the decision. The U.S. is not imposing a 50% tariff on all Canadian imports, as a sharp rise in the prices of oil, gas, electricity, fertilizers, and industrial metals would cause serious harm to U.S. companies themselves.
At the same time, the new tariffs even apply to goods that meet the rules of origin under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Previously, such goods could move between the three countries duty-free.
What Will Change for American Consumers
Formally, the tariff is paid by the American company importing the goods. It may require the Canadian supplier to lower the price, partially reduce its own margin, or pass the additional costs on to the buyer.
A 50% tariff does not necessarily mean an automatic 50% increase in the retail price, since the import cost is only part of the final price. However, for goods with a small markup, shipments from Canada may become economically unviable.
The most noticeable price increases may occur in the northern U.S. states, which have close ties to Canadian suppliers. This primarily applies to cement, building materials, furniture, beverages, and certain food products.
Higher tariffs on cement could increase costs for residential and infrastructure construction. Cement is difficult and expensive to transport over long distances, so not all regions will be able to quickly replace Canadian supplies with products from other parts of the world.
In the alcohol sector, some Canadian brands may disappear from U.S. stores and restaurants or move into a higher price category. A similar situation is possible in the hockey equipment market, where Canada is not only a major consumer but also an important manufacturer of specialized products.
What Lies Ahead for Canadian Manufacturers
For Canadian exporters, the U.S. is the primary and closest market. A 50% tariff could lead to a decline in orders, reduced capacity utilization, and pressure on manufacturers’ profits—especially if they are unable to quickly find buyers in other countries.
The most vulnerable will be companies located near the U.S. border and focused primarily on the U.S. market. Small wineries, furniture factories, and manufacturers of clothing and sports equipment will find it more difficult to redirect their products than large international corporations.
Canada will likely try to accelerate the reorientation of its exports toward the European Union, the United Kingdom, Asian countries, and other markets. However, transportation costs, differences in standards, and the need to rebuild distribution networks will limit the speed of this transition.
Who stands to gain from the trade realignment
The market share vacated by Canadian suppliers in the U.S. market could be filled by manufacturers from Mexico, the European Union, Latin America, and Asia.
European, Chilean, Argentine, and Australian companies may gain additional opportunities in the wine market. Manufacturers of clothing, furniture, and consumer goods from Mexico and Asian countries will also be able to increase their shipments to the U.S.
A similar process has already been observed in the Canadian market following restrictions on imports of U.S. alcohol. The White House notes that Canada has increased imports of beverages from the EU, Chile, Japan, Argentina, Ireland, New Zealand, and Australia.
However, such a shift does not always lower prices. Replacing a nearby Canadian supplier with a more distant producer increases transportation costs and complicates logistics.
The Risk of a New Round of the Trade War
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed a willingness to continue negotiations but emphasized that the trade conflict is already increasing costs for families, particularly in the U.S. Ontario Premier Doug Ford called for retaliatory tariffs on a comparable volume of goods should the U.S. measures take effect.
If Ottawa introduces new retaliatory measures, they could target U.S. food products, alcohol, automobiles, industrial equipment, and goods from states that are politically significant to the Trump administration.
The conflict would then begin to affect not only specific product categories but also companies’ investment decisions. Businesses would be more cautious about locating new production facilities on both sides of the border, and inventories of components could increase as a safeguard against further restrictions.
Why This Decision Is Important for Global Trade
The legal basis for the tariffs is particularly significant. Trump invoked Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, which allows for the imposition of up to 50% in additional duties against a country that discriminates against U.S. trade. According to Reuters, this is the first known instance of this provision being invoked in nearly a century.
The precedent set allows Washington to use a similar mechanism against other trading partners if their taxes, quotas, licensing requirements, or government procurement practices are deemed discriminatory toward U.S. companies.
This increases uncertainty for global business. Even the existence of a free trade agreement no longer guarantees that goods will be protected from additional U.S. tariffs.
The immediate impact of the new measures on the global economy will be limited, as they cover about $20 billion in imports.
However, the consequences could be significantly greater if Canada responds in kind and the U.S. begins to invoke Section 338 against other countries.
In that case, companies will more actively shift production closer to their main markets, create alternative supply chains, and reduce their dependence on any single country. This could increase trade resilience but, at the same time, raise the cost of goods and fuel inflation.
The new tariffs are not scheduled to take effect until August 19, so Washington and Ottawa have about a month left to negotiate. The ultimate outcome will depend on whether the parties can reach an agreement on automobiles, U.S. alcohol, and access for U.S. dairy producers to the Canadian market.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Taras Kachka will serve as Ukraine’s representative to the European Union in Brussels and, at the same time, perform the duties of Ukraine’s trade representative.
“We are still awaiting decisions on four more clusters. I believe that Taras will be able to implement this most effectively at Ukraine’s Mission to the EU in Brussels. Given Taras’s proven track record and experience in trade policy, he will combine this work with the European Union with the role of Ukraine’s trade representative within the framework of our bilateral trade agreements with key partners,” Zelenskyy wrote on his Telegram channel on Friday.
Ukraine and Serbia have agreed to resume work on a free trade agreement, which could become one of the most important economic steps in relations between the two countries in recent years.
In Belgrade, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration and Trade Representative of Ukraine Taras Kachka, and Serbian Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade Jagoda Lazarević signed a joint statement on the resumption of negotiations on a free trade agreement.
For Serbia, this document is of particular importance, since Ukraine remains the only European country with which Belgrade still has not signed a free trade agreement.
According to Kachka, work on the agreement is an important stage in the development of Ukrainian-Serbian relations and should contribute to deepening trade, industrial cooperation and the creation of new regional production chains.
The possibility of applying diagonal cumulation of origin will have separate importance. This will allow producers in Ukraine and Serbia to use raw materials and components from countries with which free trade agreements have been concluded and which are participants in the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, without losing the preferential origin of goods. For Serbian industry, this is especially important, since Ukrainian raw materials and semi-finished products have already played a significant role in a number of sectors.
The economic part of the Ukrainian delegation’s visit to Belgrade was accompanied by the Serbian-Ukrainian Business Forum, organized by the chambers of commerce and industry of the two countries. According to the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, representatives of 30 companies took part in the event, and the forum took place against the backdrop of the intensification of political and economic dialogue between Kyiv and Belgrade.
The Ukrainian delegation included President of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Gennadiy Chyzhykov. The forum was opened by Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Taras Kachka, Serbian Minister of Internal and Foreign Trade Jagoda Lazarević, Serbian Ambassador to Ukraine Andon Sapundži, Ukrainian Ambassador to Serbia Oleksandr Lytvynenko, President of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Marko Čadež, and President of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Gennadiy Chyzhykov.
“For us, this forum is a practical working platform. It brings together representatives of the government, diplomatic missions, chambers and companies in one hall. It is precisely this format that helps business move from general interests to specific contacts, contracts and projects,” Chyzhykov said.
He thanked the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and personally Marko Čadež for preparing the meeting, as well as the ambassadors of the two countries for supporting bilateral economic dialogue.
“Your work is important because economic cooperation requires political trust, regular communication and institutional support,” the president of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted, addressing the diplomats.
According to Chyzhykov, the business community highly appreciates the fact that bilateral work is advancing at the government level.
“For business, predictability, clear rules and better access to the market are important. When state institutions and business organizations move in the same direction, companies receive a much stronger signal to invest time, resources and trust in bilateral cooperation. Serbia is a strategic partner for us in the Balkans,” he emphasized.
Chyzhykov also noted that Ukraine is interested in pragmatic cooperation with Serbia based on mutual respect, economic logic, reliable partnership and practical results.
“There is a range of groups of goods that is underestimated in the context of cooperation. This visit of our delegation and the forum became an excellent platform for bringing the Ukrainian and Serbian sides closer to a new stage of our relations. We are keeping the agricultural sector, the food sector and the energy sector in focus,” the president of the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry added.
According to BGNES, in the first quarter of 2026, trade between Serbia and Ukraine amounted to $152.8 million, while Serbia recorded a positive balance of $36.8 million, and export coverage of imports reached 163.4%.
At the end of 2025, trade turnover between the two countries amounted to $442.2 million. Serbian exports to Ukraine reached $202.9 million, while imports from Ukraine amounted to $239.3 million. The main goods of Serbian exports are electricity, mineral and chemical fertilizers, tires and other industrial products, while semi-finished rolled products, iron ore and frozen raspberries are named among the goods imported from Ukraine.
President of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Marko Čadež earlier noted in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine agency that the chambers of the two countries have “excellent bilateral relations,” secured by a memorandum of cooperation signed three years ago within the framework of a business forum in Belgrade. According to him, the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry already have experience in organizing business forums, B2B negotiations, online business missions during the pandemic and joint statements on complex topics.
Čadež also emphasized that he and Chyzhykov are connected by years of joint work in Eurochambres and the World Chambers Federation, mutual understanding, common views on problems and solutions, as well as on the European future of the economies of the two countries.
“I consider him not only a colleague, but also a great friend, with sincere respect for everything that the Ukrainian Chamber and he personally are doing in order, even under impossible conditions, to help Ukrainian entrepreneurs in the country and connect them with international partners,” the president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry said in an interview with the agency.
According to Čadež, the parties will also work on creating a Serbian-Ukrainian Business Council. He expressed confidence that in the future a business forum could also be organized in Ukraine with the support of the foreign ministers of the two countries, Marko Đurić and Andrii Sybiha.
The parties name IT, construction, agriculture and the food industry, energy, logistics and transport as practical areas of cooperation between Ukrainian and Serbian business. Earlier, the Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry reported that the program of the business mission to Serbia included B2B meetings with Serbian companies, the establishment of new business contacts, visits to enterprises and discussion of potential joint projects.
The Serbian side also sees opportunities for cooperation in Ukraine’s reconstruction projects. This concerns construction materials, energy equipment, agricultural machinery, irrigation systems, seed material, technologies for increasing yields, as well as supplies of products for the energy sector.
For Ukraine, Serbia is important not only as a trading partner, but also as a potential logistics and production hub for access to the markets of the Western Balkans, the EU, Asia and Africa. Čadež noted that Serbia, being located in the center of Southeastern Europe, can use its logistical links with the EU, the East and the South for the development of joint production and the export of Ukrainian and Serbian companies to third markets.
Danube logistics has separate importance. Using the route from the Ukrainian ports of Izmail and Reni toward Serbian ports and intermodal terminals, goods from Ukraine can more efficiently reach Corridor X, the markets of Central Europe and the Adriatic region.
Thus, the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to Belgrade, the signing of the statement on the resumption of negotiations on a free trade agreement, and the holding of the Serbian-Ukrainian Business Forum move the bilateral economic agenda from the level of intentions into the practical plane. Against the backdrop of recovering trade, the active role of the chambers of commerce and industry, and the discussion of the Serbian-Ukrainian Business Council, the parties are forming a new infrastructure of cooperation that can strengthen the industrial, logistical and investment link between Ukraine and Serbia.
Interfax-Ukraine is the official media partner for the organisation of the Serbian-Ukrainian Business Forum in Belgrade.
According to Serbian Economist, trade turnover between Serbia and Ukraine in 2025 returned to the level of the last pre-war year, 2021, and amounted to $442.2 million, said Marko Čadež, president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in an interview with the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
According to him, despite the initial shock following the outbreak of the war, mutual trade did not cease. In the first year of the war, it fell by 25%—to $339 million—but then began to gradually recover and can now be considered stable.
Serbian exports to Ukraine in 2025 amounted to $202.9 million, while imports from Ukraine totaled $239.3 million. About 900 Serbian companies continue to do business with Ukraine, 670 of which import Ukrainian goods.
“In the first quarter of this year, the growth trend continued—Serbian exports to Ukraine doubled compared to the same period last year, while Ukrainian exports to Serbia grew by 4.5%,” said Čadež.
The president of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce and Industry noted that the pandemic, followed by the war, demonstrated the high interdependence of the two economies. This is particularly true for supplies of Ukrainian raw materials and intermediate products for Serbian industry. According to Čadež, prior to the war, such supplies accounted for about 70% of Serbian imports from Ukraine.
Among the key Ukrainian goods for Serbia, he cited iron ore, coal, aluminum wire, and cellulose. Supply disruptions after February 2022 created problems for a number of Serbian industries, particularly metallurgy.
Serbian-Ukrainian trade continues to be dominated by raw materials, industrial products, and goods for the processing industry. Ukraine purchases mineral and chemical fertilizers, PVC flooring, paper and cardboard, automobile tires, as well as detergents and cleaning products from Serbia.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed during talks in Beijing to expand cooperation in trade and agriculture, and also discussed the situation in the Middle East, Ukraine, and on the Korean Peninsula, according to CCTV.
The meeting took place on May 14 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during Trump’s state visit to China. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Xinhua News Agency, the leaders of the two countries discussed the bilateral agenda and exchanged views on key international and regional issues, including the situation in the Middle East, the crisis in Ukraine, and the Korean Peninsula.
Xi Jinping stated that China and the U.S. should build “constructive and strategically stable relations,” and also emphasized the importance of a cautious approach to the Taiwan issue, calling it the most critical aspect of Sino-American relations. According to Xi, mishandling this issue could lead to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.
According to the official Chinese account of the talks, Trump expressed his readiness to work with Xi to strengthen communication and cooperation, resolve differences, and develop U.S.-China relations. He also introduced the Chinese leader to representatives of American business who had traveled to China with him.
The talks took place against the backdrop of efforts to maintain the trade truce between the U.S. and China, reached in October 2025. Topics discussed included U.S. companies’ access to the Chinese market, Chinese investment in the U.S., trade, energy, and agricultural supplies.
For Ukraine, the very fact that the Ukrainian issue was discussed at the level of U.S. and Chinese leaders is significant. Beijing retains influence over Moscow and remains one of the key external players whose stance shapes the diplomatic context surrounding the war. However, the published reports do not indicate that the parties reached any specific agreements specifically regarding Ukraine.
The situation in the Middle East was a separate topic of discussion. Against the backdrop of tensions surrounding Iran and risks to energy supplies, the U.S. is interested in China playing a more active role in mitigating risks to global trade and energy routes. Washington is also seeking economic outcomes from the meeting, including trade and investment agreements.
