This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of September 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, PhD in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
During the first nine months of 2025, Ukraine operated in a “managed economy” mode, maintaining its adaptability to wartime restrictions, but the pace of recovery remained moderate and the investment momentum insufficient. The NBU’s baseline forecasts in the summer of 2025 included a target for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.1%, which set the framework for business and financial sector expectations for the second half of the year.
“Based on the results for January–September 2025, Ukraine’s economy is showing its ability to maintain basic activity under military restrictions. The recovery is continuing, but its pace remains moderate and is largely based on consumption and external financing. According to market observations, investment activity is mainly focused on restoration and replacement rather than capacity expansion. The key task for the coming quarters is to increase the share of long-term projects in the energy, logistics, processing, and technology sectors,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Inflation dynamics in September were more subdued than during the peak periods of the year. According to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices rose by 0.3% m/m in September 2025, by 6.3% since the beginning of the year, and annual inflation (September 2025 to September 2024) was 11.9%. Core inflation was higher on a monthly basis: +1.3% m/m, and on an annual basis: 11.0% y/y.
Monetary policy remained tight and aimed at keeping expectations in check: on September 11, 2025, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%. At the same time, the NBU’s inflation report laid out the logic of maintaining the rate at 15.5% until the fourth quarter of 2025 as part of a disinflationary trajectory and exchange rate stability.
“Inflation dynamics in 2025 will be determined not only by monetary factors, but also by supply factors—harvests, logistics, energy constraints, and the import component of costs. In these conditions, keeping the discount rate high serves to contain inflation expectations and reduce pressure on the currency market. At the same time, monetary measures must be complemented by government policies that stimulate competition and supply in the domestic market. Without this, inflation risks will remain sensitive to price and logistics shocks,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Foreign trade remained one of the key sources of macro risks. According to the State Statistics Service, in January–July 2025, exports of goods amounted to $23.31 billion (96.5% of the corresponding period in 2024), while imports amounted to $45.94 billion (116.9%). The negative balance amounted to $22.63 billion, reflecting the structural gap between import demand (energy, equipment, critical goods) and export opportunities.
International reserves remained a compensator for military risks and trade imbalances. According to the NBU, as of October 1, 2025, international reserves amounted to $46.52 billion, having increased in September; the NBU also noted that this amount corresponded to the financing of 5.1 months of future imports.
The debt burden remained high. According to data publicly cited with reference to the Ministry of Finance, as of September 30, 2025, the state and state-guaranteed debt amounted to UAH 8,024.1 billion (equivalent to $194.2 billion); of which external debt amounted to UAH 6,063.2 billion and domestic debt amounted to UAH 1,960.9 billion.
Global economy
In 2025, the global economy continued on a moderate growth trajectory, but at different speeds across regions and with increased sensitivity to trade and financial risks. According to the July update of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, global growth in 2025 was estimated at 3.0% and in 2026 at 3.1%, explained by a combination of financial conditions and trade lead-through effects.
World Bank materials emphasized that the outlook remains fragile due to increased trade barriers and high uncertainty; in the baseline scenario, after a slowdown, growth was expected to pick up to around 2.5% in 2026–2027.
“The global economy in 2025 is growing moderately and unevenly across regions, with financial conditions and trade risks remaining key variables. The US is supporting part of global demand, but dependence on the cost of money and the consumption cycle remains. The European economy is recovering slowly, while China is showing growth driven by industry and exports, with uneven domestic demand. For Ukraine, this means the need to focus on competitive niches and systematic support for exports with higher added value, rather than waiting for favorable external conditions,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the BEA’s third estimate, real US GDP grew by 3.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2025, while a decline was recorded in the first quarter. Among the key growth factors, the BEA cited a reduction in imports (which are deducted from GDP calculations) and an increase in consumer spending, partially offset by weaker investment and export dynamics.
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in the eurozone and 0.2% q/q in the EU in Q2 2025, indicating a very moderate recovery in economic activity.
According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP grew by 5.3% y/y in the first half of 2025 and by 5.2% y/y in the second quarter, meaning that the economy maintained a pace of “above 5%” on an annualized basis.
According to an official government press release (PIB), India’s real GDP in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26 (April-June 2025) grew by 7.8% y/y, confirming one of the highest growth rates among major economies.
TurkStat reported that in the second quarter of 2025, Turkey’s GDP grew by 4.8% y/y, which formally meant an acceleration in annual growth, although the structure of demand and foreign trade conditions remained important for assessing sustainability.
“The main external risks in 2025 are related to trade restrictions, changes in regulatory regimes, energy costs, and logistical constraints. In such conditions, countries with high productivity and a diversified export structure gain an advantage in the competition for capital and markets. It is advisable for Ukraine to develop risk management tools for exporters, expand its sales geography, and increase the predictability of rules for investors. This reduces dependence on short-term fluctuations in external markets and increases the stability of the balance of payments,” emphasized Maksim Urakin.
Conclusions
January–September 2025 is a period of relative macrofinancial manageability for Ukraine: inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September, the NBU kept its policy rate at 15.5%, and international reserves rose to $46.52 billion as of October 1. At the same time, the trade imbalance and high debt burden continue to pose medium-term risks, which can be addressed not by “stabilization” but by structural changes—investment, productivity, processing, and exports with higher added value.
“In the medium term, the key areas are the development of processing, the localization of supply chains where economically feasible, and the expansion of exports of higher value-added products. At the same time, it is important to maintain the predictability of monetary and fiscal decisions and ensure transparent conditions for private capital. In the absence of such steps, macro stability will remain primarily a function of external financing. If these steps are taken, they can become the basis for a longer investment cycle and a more sustainable economic structure,” concluded Maksim Urakin.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club-2/
Ukraine ranked fifth among countries that were sources of accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) in Cyprus in 2024, reports the Experts Club information and analytical center.
The total volume of accumulated inward FDI in 2024 is estimated at €365.07 billion, with Ukraine accounting for €10.64 billion, or 3% of the total.
Russia remains the largest source of investment with €83.46 billion (23%), followed by the United States with €66.57 billion (18%), Luxembourg with €32.10 billion (9%), the United Kingdom with €17.17 billion (5%), Ukraine – €10.64 billion (3%), the Netherlands – €6.90 billion (2%), and Israel – €5.10 billion (1%).
In addition, the data mentions the Cayman Islands (€8.4 billion), other countries in the Middle East (€7.6 billion), the Marshall Islands (€3.5 billion), and the British Virgin Islands (€2.4 billion).
The Central Bank of Cyprus also notes a decrease in the total volume of accumulated FDI: from €489.4 billion in 2022 to €394.0 billion in 2023 and €365.07 billion in 2024; The figure for Russia for this period fell from €135.7 billion to €83.46 billion.
The Central Bank of Cyprus notes that this refers to FDI “positions” (the accumulated volume of equity participation and intra-corporate loans), rather than new investment flows into the real economy.
The Experts Club analytical center has published a video study on silver production in the world by leading countries in 1971-2024, which shows the long-term restructuring of production geography and the strengthening of the role of Latin America and a number of Asian countries.
According to the study (source: BGS), Mexico will remain the largest silver producer in 2024 with 7.43 million kg, having been the undisputed world leader in silver production for 15 consecutive years. It is followed by China with 3.389 million kg and Peru with 3.065 million kg. The next group of producers includes Russia (1.604 million kg), Poland (1.534 million kg), Bolivia (1.495 million kg), Australia (1.218 million kg), the United States (1.097 million kg), Chile (1.049 million kg), and Kazakhstan (878,000 kg).
The top 20 for 2024 also included Argentina (775 thousand kg), India (769 thousand kg), Canada (410 thousand kg), Sweden (372 thousand kg), Indonesia (325 thousand kg), Uzbekistan (258 thousand kg), Morocco (224,000 kg), Papua New Guinea (137,000 kg), Brazil (102,600 kg), and Turkey (96,130 kg).
The study notes that over the decade, the centers of production have changed: some countries have increased output by expanding polymetallic projects, where silver is often a by-product, while leadership has gradually consolidated among large producers with a stable raw material base and developed processing.
Commenting on the results, Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasized that the long series from 1971 to 2024 shows not just a “race” between countries, but investment cycles and a structural shift in demand: “Silver is increasingly perceived as a strategic metal — both for industry and for investors, so understanding who has been increasing production for decades and how helps to assess future risks of shortages and price spikes.”
According to analysts’ estimates, the value of silver in 2025 rose by a record 128.47%, which was the best result among major assets and exceeded the dynamics of gold (+66.59%) as well as the largest crypto assets, which ended 2025 in negative territory (BTC -5.75%, ETH -11.58%).
The video analysis is available on the Experts Club YouTube channel –
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of May 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksym Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators
The first five months of 2025 saw a modest recovery amid high uncertainty. According to preliminary estimates by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in the first quarter of 2025 (seasonally adjusted: –0.3% q/q), reflecting the fragile but still positive dynamics of domestic demand and the adaptation of businesses to wartime conditions.
Inflationary pressure intensified in May: annual inflation accelerated to 15.9% (month-on-month: +1.3%), mainly due to a jump in food prices and the impact of energy factors. The NBU directly pointed to seasonal and supply factors and at the same time expects a slowdown in the summer months.
Against this backdrop, the NBU Board consistently maintained the policy rate at 15.5% per annum in March, April, and June, emphasizing the priority of anchoring inflation expectations and exchange rate stability.
Foreign trade in goods remained in deep deficit in January–April: exports amounted to $15.8 billion, imports to $29.3 billion, and the negative balance to about $13.4 billion. During the same period, exports of services amounted to $12.7 billion, imports to $7.4 billion. Structurally, imports are dominated by fuel, machinery, and transport, while commodity exports are concentrated in raw material groups.
Despite the trade gap, international reserves reached historically high levels at the end of May, amounting to $44.5 billion as of June 1, 2025 (thanks to official receipts and NBU operations).
At the same time, the debt burden is high: total public and guaranteed debt as of May 31, 2025, was $180.97 billion (7.52 trillion UAH).
“The current macro dynamics are more like driving with the handbrake slightly engaged: the economy is capable of moving, but without acceleration. The positive aspect is that we are maintaining growth and gradually curbing inflation. The negative aspect is the sources of this balance: reserves and external inflows are replacing investments and export revenues. If we do not convert record reserves and access to international programs into an investment impulse in manufacturing, energy, and logistics in the summer, we will have to extinguish structural fires in the fall, rather than price fires,” notes Maxim Urakin.
The expert also emphasizes the quality of demand. According to Urakin, consumption is reviving, but it is fragile and uneven — it is being sustained by the IT sector, services, and part of trade. Industry without major infrastructure repairs, cheap long-term money, and access to ports is like an engine running at minimum speed.
“Add the risks of energy during peak periods, and we get an economy that needs not isolated injections but systemic therapy: insurance of military risks for investors, fast ‘windows’ for importing equipment, duty-free corridors for exporters, and large-scale public-private partnership projects. Otherwise, we will preserve the trade deficit and dependence on external financing,” the economist stressed.
Global economy
The global picture at the end of May 2025 remains mixed. In its April WEO, the IMF forecasts global economic growth of around 2.8% in 2025, with a further decline in inflation, but with risks related to geopolitics and trade protectionism remaining.
After overheating in 2024, the US saw negative GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025: according to the BEA’s second estimate, a 0.3% decline in annual terms, explained by a sharp increase in imports and a reduction in government spending; domestic final demand remained stable. In May, core PCE inflation remained close to 2.6% y/y, and the Fed kept the rate range at 4.5–4.75% at its meeting on May 1 (in June, it continued its cycle of moderate easing).
China reported official GDP growth of 5.4% y/y (1.2% q/q) in Q1, supported by industry, transport, and IT services; at the same time, the real estate sector remains a restraining factor.
The European economy is gradually emerging from stagnation. In its spring forecast, the European Commission expects GDP growth of 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the eurozone in 2025; inflation is converging with the ECB’s target. The first quarter provided positive momentum: eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q.
The UK was a pleasant surprise for the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1, and on May 8, the Bank of England lowered its rate to 4.5%, maintaining cautious rhetoric due to inflation risks.
Turkey continues to experience a combination of growth and high inflation: in Q1 2025, GDP grew by 5.7% y/y, while inflation in May stood at 35.4% y/y despite tight monetary policy.
India maintains high momentum: according to official data, in the fourth quarter of the 2024/25 fiscal year (January–March 2025), real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y; for the entire fiscal year, the government estimates growth of approximately 6.5–6.9%.
Brazil added 1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in the first quarter, but inflation remained high in May — around 5.3% y/y, forcing the central bank to maintain tight financial conditions.
“The world in May 2025 is a multi-speed economy. The US is cooling down with negative Q1 statistics, but demand and the labor market are still driving growth. Europe, despite low growth rates, is on a trajectory consistent with its inflation target; the UK is showing resilience; China is holding steady at 5%+, but with weak private demand; India is the clear leader in terms of growth among the major economies; Turkey is experiencing high inflationary turbulence; Brazil is growing, but paying dearly for it,” comments Maxim Urakhin.
According to the expert, for Ukraine this means a new configuration of opportunities: cheaper global money will not appear quickly, but the “window” for investment in the relocation of production, energy, and defense-industrial chains is already open.
“The main thing is to design growth not as a simple restoration of the pre-war structure, but as a leap in productivity: processing instead of raw materials, logistics with high added value, digital services, and engineering that are export-scalable. Then macrofinancial stability will cease to be fragile and will become a platform for development,” added the founder of Experts Club.
Conclusion
In January–May 2025, the Ukrainian economy is in a mode of sustained stabilization: moderate annual growth at the start of the year, inflation peaking in May, record reserves, and high debt burden. The strategic choice is to transform external support and import resources into a source of investment in productivity and exports. The global context is asymmetrical and risky, but it opens up niches where Ukraine can grow faster than the world if it focuses on structural projects and policies that convert stability into development.
A more detailed analysis of Ukraine’s economic indicators is available in the monthly information and analytical products of the Interfax-Ukraine agency, Economic Monitoring.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Industrial production in Ukraine increased by 3.2% in July 2025 compared to July last year. This is the second consecutive month of growth: in June, the indicator rose by 2.9%, while in May and April, a decline was recorded, according to the State Statistics Service.
In January-July 2025, the total volume of industrial production was 3% lower than in the same period of 2024. The decline in the extractive industry was 11.1%, and in the production of coke and petroleum products, 6.3%.
The volume of industrial products sold over seven months reached UAH 2,296.5 billion, of which UAH 406.4 billion was accounted for by exports.
The main industries that showed growth in July compared to last year were:
– pharmaceuticals — +23.6%;
– furniture manufacturing — +22%;
– rubber and plastic products manufacturing — +12.7%;
– electricity, gas, and steam supply — +10.2%;
– woodworking — +8.4%;
– food industry — +3.4%;
– coke production — +2.5%;
– electrical equipment — +1.8%;
– automotive industry — +0.5%;
– oil and gas production — +0.4%.
At the same time, there was a decline in:
– coal mining — by 1.6%;
– metal ore mining — by 7.7%;
– textile manufacturing — by 7.1%;
– computer and electronics manufacturing — by 6%;
– metallurgy — by 0.8%;
– mechanical engineering — by 0.1%.
Interestingly, the mining and quarrying segment recorded growth of 49.1%.
Compared to June 2025, industrial production in July increased by 0.6%.
In 2024, industrial production in Ukraine grew by 4.6%.
According to Maxim Urakhin, co-founder of the Experts Club analytical center, July’s growth shows that Ukraine’s industry is gradually adapting to military conditions and external challenges:
“We are seeing a local recovery in pharmaceuticals, wood processing, and energy. These are the sectors that respond most quickly to domestic demand and the needs of the economy. However, the decline in metallurgy and mining reminds us of structural problems: export-oriented industries continue to suffer from logistics and declining global demand. By the end of the year, industry may show a moderate recovery, but investment in modernization and expansion of export routes is necessary to achieve sustainable growth,” Maxim Urakin noted.
