The eurozone’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 0.1% compared to the previous three months, according to a report by the European Union’s statistical office, which presented revised data. Previously, it was reported that GDP remained unchanged. Experts on average expected the previous estimate to be confirmed, according to Trading Economics.
In annual terms, the eurozone economy grew by 0.9%, the fastest pace since the beginning of 2023. The dynamics of this indicator coincided with the previous estimate and the consensus forecast of analysts.
In the third quarter, eurozone GDP increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months and by 0.9% in annual terms.
In October-December, Germany’s economy declined by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, France’s by 0.1%, Spain’s by 0.8%, and Italy’s GDP remained unchanged.
In annual terms, Germany’s GDP also decreased by 0.2%, France’s by 0.7%, Spain’s by 3.5%, and Italy’s by 0.5%.
In the fourth quarter, the EU economy grew by 0.2% compared to the previous three months and by 1.1% in annual terms.
This is the second estimate of GDP dynamics for the fourth quarter out of three. The third estimate will be published on March 7. According to preliminary data, in 2024, the euro area’s GDP grew by 0.7%, and the EU’s by 0.9%.
Experts Club Analytical Center and Maksim Urakin released earlier video analysis about the economy of Ukraine and the world – https://youtu.be/LT0sE3ymMnQ?si=b_tVU8Zeg_-xZVEo.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/vvp-yevrozony-v-iv-kvartali-zris-na-01/
February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global changes in trade flows continue to affect economic development. Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, noted that Ukraine is showing signs of gradual economic recovery despite the difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
– Agriculture: the recovery in exports and the expansion of sales markets provided an increase of 6.5%.
– IT sector: IT services remained a key source of foreign exchange earnings, showing an increase of 10.4%.
– Construction: thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Amid the ongoing war and global turmoil, Ukraine’s economy is showing both signs of recovery and certain problems that need attention,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, which is higher than in 2024 (12%). This is due to rising food and energy prices. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating between UAH 39-40 per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export earnings.
“The decline in inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but an important task remains to increase the level of household incomes to compensate for the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
In January 2025, Ukraine’s exports increased to $3.1 billion, driven by shipments of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy and equipment. The negative balance of foreign trade remains.
“Export dynamics show that Ukrainian companies are actively looking for new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin said.
In January 2025, the state budget revenues of Ukraine amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more than in January 2024, respectively. The main role in this was played by revenues from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international assistance. Ukraine’s international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. However, it is important to lay the foundation for independent economic growth now,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown are the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in the financial markets and a decline in global demand.
THE UNITED STATES: The economy is showing moderate growth at 2.3%, driven by robust domestic demand and investment in innovative industries.
European Union: The growth rate remains low at 1.1% due to the ongoing energy crisis and problems in the industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, due to the real estate crisis and a decline in exports.
India: Stable growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the fastest growing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are related to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies are better able to cope with these challenges,” – Mr. Urakin said.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to be under pressure, with an average gas price of €67 per MWh, due to persistent supply shortages.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export capacity of developing countries.
Central banks in major economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps to reduce inflation.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks associated with inflation, foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid remain. The global economy is slowing down, which creates additional challenges for emerging market countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential and strengthening its domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome the current difficulties and create the basis for long-term growth,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Ukraine’s economy demonstrates steady but uneven growth amid ongoing challenges caused by the war, inflationary risks, and global instability.
GDP growth
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January-October 2024. The growth rate slowed slightly compared to the first months of the year due to the impact of external economic factors and a decline in exports.
“The Ukrainian economy demonstrates strength and adaptability even in the face of large-scale challenges. However, for sustainable development, it is necessary to continue reforms aimed at improving the investment climate and supporting exports,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Inflation
Inflation continues to be one of the key issues. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, annual inflation was 9.1% in October, accelerating from 8.5% in September. The main factors behind the price increase were higher energy prices, hryvnia depreciation and high logistics costs.
“Inflation puts pressure on the consumer spending power of the population. It is important that the government pays more attention to tools to curb price growth, including support for national production and the development of the domestic market,” Urakin emphasized.
Foreign trade
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods increased by 6.4% over ten months compared to the same period last year and amounted to $22.1 billion. Exports decreased by 4.8%, especially for agricultural products and metallurgy, while imports increased by 3.2%, mainly due to purchases of fuel and industrial equipment.
“Ukraine needs to develop export channels more actively, diversify its sales markets and support its producers. This will help to balance the trade deficit and strengthen its position in international markets,” Urakin added.
State budget and reserves
State budget revenues in January-October amounted to UAH 1.91 trillion, which is 12% higher than in the same period of 2023. However, a significant portion of the revenues was provided by international financial assistance. In October, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 6.7% to $37.2 billion, due to the repayment of external liabilities and a decrease in foreign exchange earnings.
Global economic situation
The global economy continues to face uncertainty caused by high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and the weakening of key economies.
According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP will grow by 3.0% in 2024, which is in line with forecasts but below the average of recent decades.
USA – the economy grew by 2.5%, supported by high domestic consumption and investment.
Eurozone – growth was 0.8%, due to the recession in Germany and a slowdown in industrial production.
China – GDP grew by 4.6%, but the economy is facing problems in the real estate sector and a decline in exports.
India – remains one of the leaders of growth, showing a 6.9% economic recovery.
“The global economy is balancing between recovery and new challenges. In the coming months, geopolitical instability, energy price fluctuations and financial constraints due to high interest rates will remain the main risks,” – Mr. Urakin noted.
Global trends:
1. Financial markets remain volatile as central banks in leading countries are in no hurry to cut rates.
2. The energy crisis in Europe continues to put pressure on the economy.
3. Rising commodity prices, including oil and gas, are affecting inflationary processes around the world.
Ukraine’s economy has shown moderate growth in the first ten months of 2024, but faces challenges in the form of inflation, trade imbalance, and pressure on the state budget. The global economy remains exposed to risks associated with the high cost of borrowed funds and the slowdown in key countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue reforms aimed at supporting business and attracting investment. This is the only way to ensure long-term economic stability and create a solid foundation for future growth,” – summarized Maksim Urakin.
Private healthcare facilities are ready to work under the Medical Guarantee Program (MGP) and propose to revise approaches to the formation of certain packages for the MGP, which will reduce the cost of medical services and optimize budget expenditures.
This was stated by members of the Association of Private Medical Institutions (APMI) at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
Mykola Skavronsky, deputy director general of the Cinevo medical laboratory, noted that the laboratory has not stopped working since the beginning of the war, despite the fact that in 2022 Cinevo lost more than 30 branches in different regions.
“It’s quite a shame to see that recovery programs exist only for state or municipal medicine. This completely ignores the fact that private medicine also suffered from the war. But, unlike the state and municipal ones, all private providers are recovering and continue to work with their own or credit funds, not with budget funds and without assistance,” he said.
Commenting on the first experience of Cinevo’s cooperation with the NHSU in 2024, Skavronsky noted that the laboratory’s entry into the PMG “became a kind of spotlight that highlighted the situation with the laboratory industry in Ukraine as a whole.”
“I can say that the state does not know and does not understand the real need of doctors and patients for laboratory diagnostics. Now it is believed that laboratory diagnostics are needed as much as they are ordered, not as much as they are needed. Cinevo’s cooperation with the NHSU has revealed the fact that there is simply a huge unrealized demand for laboratory diagnostics in Ukraine, in March last year alone, we performed almost 730 thousand tests for 72 thousand people, and we saw that of these people who came to us for PMG, two-thirds were new people,” he said.
Skavronsky noted that at basic prices, Cinevo performed tests for about UAH 528 million, at prices, the cost of tests was about UAH 200 million, while the NHSU paid UAH 44 million for them.
“We asked the NHSU to create a laboratory package that would be transparent and clear, where it would be clear what tests and, most importantly, which doctors can prescribe them and in what quantity. Because it turned out that there were no restrictions at all, doctors prescribed tests that should not have been prescribed. It is not the laboratory that should decide what to do and what not to do, there should be a system that simply does not allow prescribing something wrong,” he said.
According to Skavronsky, one of the most popular tests funded by the budget in 2024 was vitamin D tests, of which the laboratory performed about 100 thousand.
“I don’t think Ukraine is such a rich country to cover vitamin D tests in such volumes at the expense of taxpayers. But doctors prescribe them. Why doctors prescribe them is a bigger question for doctors and pharmaceutical companies,” he emphasized.
Skavronsky also emphasized that the implementation of the proposals developed by the laboratory allowed “not only not to increase the tariff, but even to reduce it.”
“As a private laboratory, we would be ready to work with tariffs that are 15% lower, but subject to clear criteria. In recent years, we have heard that money follows the patient, but over the past year, especially in the first quarter, we have seen that money does not follow the patient,” he said.
For his part, Vadym Zukin, Chief Operating Officer of the Leleka Multidisciplinary Medical Center, reminded that Leleka is the only medical center in Ukraine that has international JCI accreditation, and the clinic received its latest confirmation at the end of 2024.
“Literally two months before the full-scale invasion began, the Minister of Health and his deputy came to us and we discussed how these standards could be implemented for other market players. But now it seems that the state is sailing its own ship, and we are trying to catch up with the Ministry of Health and convince it of something,” he explained the situation.
Zukin emphasized that “the state should realize that it is more profitable for it to become a purchaser of medical services rather than a provider and not to invest in fixed assets, since private companies already have these funds.”
He also suggested that the NHSU should enter into longer-term contracts for participation in the PMG.
“Currently, certain PMG packages will have three-year contracts, which is better than one year, but it means nothing, because in Europe and the US they think in terms of seven years, 10 years, 15 years,” he said.
Zukin believes that “now the reform has started to move a little bit in the opposite direction from the notion that money follows patients, and I would like to bring it back in the right direction.”
For her part, Oleksandra Mashkevych, medical director of the Dobrobut medical network, noted that the network is a major taxpayer, employing 3,000 people, including 1,300 doctors. At the same time, 131 employees have been mobilized from Dobrobut and the clinic continues to pay their salaries.
“We are recognized by the Ministry of Health as critical infrastructure. In 2024, we invested almost UAH 0.5 billion in our development, most of which was spent on our energy efficiency. I would like to note that investments in energy efficiency in state and municipal institutions are not made at their own expense, but at the expense of the state or donors or sponsors. We do it on our own,” she said.
At the same time, Mashkevych emphasized that Dobrobut’s cooperation with the NHSU is “quite interesting.” In particular, the clinic has been contracted for a package of assisted reproductive technologies, under which 300 patients have completed treatment cycles and almost 45% of women have already confirmed pregnancy status.
“The tariff for this service was too low for us, we worked in the red, realizing that we were lending a hand to the state, in fact, we gave the state the opportunity to use our facilities to provide free medical services. We had long rounds of negotiations with the NHSU, the Ministry of Health, and the Ministry of Finance, and they heard us and increased the tariff. This tariff does not cover all our expenses, but we continue to work with it,” she said.
Commenting on the plans to work with the NHSU, Mashkevich noted that Dobrobut plans to expand its participation in the UHI-2025 and is waiting for the NHSU’s decision on contracting for new packages.
At the same time, Mashkevych called it a positive decision to allow private institutions to use the state unified portal of medical vacancies launched by the Ministry of Health.
The press conference was organized by the Interfax-Ukraine agency and the Association of Private Medical Institutions.
Afanasieva, Bereznitsky, CLINIC, MASHKEVYCH, MEDICINE, Ministry of Health, Skavronsky, URAKIN, Yeshchenko, Гавриченко, Зукін
The Ministry of Health continues to impede the entry of private clinics into the medical guarantees program and creates discriminatory conditions for their participation in the single medical space.
This opinion was expressed by members of the Association of Private Medical Institutions (APMI) at a press conference organized jointly with Interfax-Ukraine on Thursday.
“We have tried many times to reach a dialogue with the relevant ministry, but, unfortunately, we have been ignored in all formats – official, unofficial, absolutely in all. Therefore, we were forced to send an open letter. It is unfortunate that the Ministry of Health demonstrates its intention to continue ignoring us and our problems. This is evidenced, in particular, by the regulatory documents approved after our appeal,” said Olena Yeshchenko, director of Smart Medical Septeg, chairman of the APMZ.
She explained that the regulations put private clinics in a non-competitive position with state or municipal healthcare facilities. “They create artificial obstacles aimed at removing large private providers, healthcare providers from the system, which ultimately leads to unnecessary spending of public funds and their misuse,” she said.
According to Ms. Yeshchenko, these are the requirements of the Primary Healthcare Program 2025, which relate, in particular, to the requirements for laboratory tests, as well as the introduction of reduction coefficients for private clinics when paying for medical services provided under the Primary Healthcare Program, as well as requirements that make it impossible to include private institutions in a capable network, etc.
She emphasized that the issue of booking medical staff is becoming especially relevant for private clinics. “We are talking about a number of very serious discriminatory issues, for example, when it comes to booking medical staff. Even after our appeal, the government approved a 100% quota for booking medical staff for state and municipal institutions, but this is not provided for private institutions, although many private clinics continue to operate and provide medical care to the military and the wounded at their own expense,” she said.
“Thus, in our opinion, a rather corrupt component is being implemented, which contributes to the outflow of medical workers from private medicine to state and municipal institutions,” emphasized Yeshchenko.
According to her, there is currently a problem of communication on this issue between the Ministry of Economy and the Ministry of Health. “In fact, the two ministries are trying to play football with each other,” she said.
For her part, Oleksandra Mashkevych, medical director of Dobrobut Medical Network, noted that Dobrobut, which is included in the list of critical infrastructure facilities, is also deprived of the possibility of booking.
“Dobrobut Medical Network is a critical infrastructure facility. As far as I know, there are only 11 healthcare facilities classified as critical infrastructure facilities. And I have a question: why we are not included in the resolution on booking 100% of doctors. We will honestly say that our healthcare workers are likely to move to state-owned and municipal facilities, because there is an opportunity to book there,” she said.
As reported, at the end of December last year, the APMH in an open letter to government agencies stated that the Ministry of Health violates the rights of citizens and prevents private institutions from entering the single medical space and the PMG.
Bereznitsky, CLINIC, Havrychenko, MEDICINE, Ministry of Health, Skavronsky, URAKIN, Yeshchenko, Афанасьєва, Зукін, МАШКЕВИЧ
Ukraine’s total public debt in 2024 rose to a new all-time high: by $22.74 billion, or 14.3%, to $166.06 billion in dollar terms, and by UAH 1 trillion 461.3 billion, or 26.5%, to UAH 6 trillion 980.9 billion in hryvnia terms, according to the website of the Ministry of Finance.
According to the data, the direct public debt increased by 16.5% in dollars to $159.20 billion, or UAH 6 trillion 692.4 billion, and accounted for 95.9% of the total public and publicly guaranteed debt.
In 2024, Ukraine’s total external public debt increased by 18.1%, or by $18.38 billion, to $114.88 billion, while the total internal public debt increased by 16.7%, or by UAH 276.0 billion, to UAH 1 trillion 863.1 billion.
As a result, the share of total external public debt increased from 70.0% to 72.3% over the year.
According to the Ministry of Finance, the share of liabilities in euros at the end of 2024 increased to 33.01%, in US dollars to 26.81%, in SDRs to 11.39%, in Canadian dollars to 2.83%, in British pounds to 0.11%, while in hryvnia it decreased to 25.33% and in yen to 0.51%.
The agency also clarified that 65.01% of the state debt has a fixed interest rate, while 11.39% is tied to the IMF rate, 12.66% to SOFR, 3.80% to EURIBOR, 0.51% to TORF and 0.10% to SONIA.
The rate for another 2.08% of government debt is tied to the consumer price index, and 4.17% to the NBU discount rate. These are government bonds from the NBU’s portfolio. The newest of these were the securities linked to the key policy rate, which the NBU bought as part of the issue financing of the 2022 budget.
Finally, 0.27% of the state debt has a rate linked to the Ukrainian index of rates on retail deposits, which is used in portfolio guarantee programs.
The Ministry of Finance previously noted that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a sharp increase in the ratio of public debt to GDP – from 43.3% at the end of 2021 to 79.4% at the end of 2023.
As reported, Ukraine’s public and publicly guaranteed debt increased by $13.4 billion in 2022 and by $33.9 billion in 2023.
The IMF, as part of the sixth review of the EFF Extended Fund Facility program with Ukraine last December, improved its forecast for public debt growth due to higher GDP growth and lower deficits: to 92.2% of GDP by the end of 2024 and to 104.3% by the end of 2025, while in October it estimated it at 95.6% of GDP and 106.6% of GDP, respectively.
Earlier, the Experts Club think tank and Maxim Urakin released a video analysis on the state of debt in the world, see more details on the YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gq7twYrWuqE
