Direct non-financial investments by Chinese companies in countries participating in the “Belt and Road” initiative reached $39.67 billion in 2025, a 17.6% increase from the previous year, according to Ma Shengkun, China’s ambassador to Ukraine.
“Through direct investment, project contracting, and development financing, China has contributed to improving local infrastructure, modernizing industry, and raising the standard of living,” the diplomat wrote in a column on the Interfax-Ukraine website.
According to the data he cited, Chinese investment in Africa grew by 41% in 2025.
Chinese companies have established overseas trade and economic cooperation zones in 46 countries, with total investment in these zones approaching $80 billion.
As an example of industrial cooperation, Ma Shenkun cited a project by the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL in Indonesia. It involves establishing a complete production cycle for traction batteries—from the extraction and processing of nickel and the production of battery materials to the manufacturing and assembly of finished batteries.
According to data cited by the ambassador, the total volume of China’s direct non-financial foreign investment in 2025 reached $145.66 billion.
Ma Shengkun also cited World Bank estimates, according to which the full implementation of transportation projects under the “Belt and Road” initiative has the potential to reduce transit times along the relevant corridors by up to 12% and increase trade among countries located along them by 2.8–9.7%.
As previously reported, China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner. According to calculations by the Experts Club information and analytical center, trade between the two countries in the first half of 2026 totaled $14.68 billion. At the same time, Ukraine imported $13.9 billion worth of Chinese goods and exported $778.4 million worth of goods to China, resulting in a trade deficit of $13.12 billion.
China accounted for 21.9% of Ukraine’s trade with its 50 largest partners and 29.4% of imports from this group of countries. Trade with China accounted for approximately 47.3% of Ukraine’s total trade deficit with its top 50 partners.
According to the State Customs Service, from January through August 2026, imports of goods from China to Ukraine had already exceeded $19.6 billion, maintaining China’s position as the top supplier to the Ukrainian market.
China’s role in Ukraine’s foreign trade is analyzed in more detail in a study by Experts Club and Active Group, published on September 18, 2026.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukraine’s economy showed the first signs of emerging from a recession in the first half of 2026, however, the high foreign trade deficit, inflationary pressures, and the dependence of public finances on international aid remain key macroeconomic risks, according to the latest issue of “Economic Monitoring.”
As noted by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, after real GDP fell by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter, the economy returned to growth in April–June.
In the second quarter, Ukraine’s real GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the same period last year and by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. At the same time, the National Bank’s forecast projected growth of the Ukrainian economy at only 1.3% for the full year of 2026.
“Positive factors in the first half of the year included the resumption of at least minimal GDP growth, the return of international reserves to above $50 billion, stability in the foreign exchange market, more consistent international financing, and the adaptability of Ukrainian businesses. The main risks remain the war, the state of the energy sector, high production costs, a labor shortage, weak commodity exports, and a growing trade imbalance. Ukraine has a significant supply of external liquidity, but it cannot replace domestic economic growth,” Urakin noted.
Consumer inflation slowed to 7.2% in June, while core inflation accelerated to 8.1%. The NBU’s discount rate remained at 15%.
At the same time, after four months of decline, Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 12.1% in June—to $51.27 billion. The NBU’s foreign exchange interventions remained substantial.
Foreign trade remains one of the main structural risks to the Ukrainian economy. From January through June 2026, merchandise imports totaled approximately $49.3 billion, while exports amounted to about $21 billion. Thus, the merchandise trade deficit reached approximately $28.3 billion.
Public finances also remain under significant strain. Revenues to the General Fund of the state budget for the first half of the year totaled nearly 1.9 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to approximately 2.23 trillion UAH.
Approximately 1.4 trillion UAH, or about 63% of all General Fund expenditures, was allocated to the security and defense sector. The volume of international grants totaled 569.6 billion hryvnia.
According to Urakin, one of the main objectives of economic policy should be to transform significant imports of equipment, international funding, and defense spending into a foundation for creating new domestic production capacity.
“The next phase of economic policy should consist not only of maintaining financial stability, but also of transforming imported equipment, international funds, and defense spending into new production assets. The foundation for long-term development should be energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, production localization, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products,” says the founder of Experts Club.
At the same time, the first half of the year revealed significant differences between the world’s largest economies and emerging markets.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.7% in the first six months of 2026, while India posted a growth rate of about 7.8% in April–June.
Turkey continued to combine economic growth with extremely high inflation. In the second quarter, its GDP increased by 2.3% year-over-year and by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, while annual inflation in June remained near 32%.
Brazil showed more moderate growth: its GDP in the second quarter increased by 2% year-over-year and by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. In the first half of the year, the country’s economy grew by 1.9%, and annual inflation in June slowed to 4.64%.
“Key emerging economies ended the first half of the year with very different growth patterns. China grew by 4.7%, but its second quarter was weaker than the first, and domestic consumption lags significantly behind industrial output and exports. India continues to grow by nearly 8%, driven by the size of its domestic market and investment. Turkey remains an example of how inflation exceeding 30% limits the quality of economic growth, while Brazil is showing more moderate growth with gradual control of inflation. For Ukraine, the main conclusion remains the same: long-term growth requires its own industrial, technological, and export base,” Urakin emphasized.
In his assessment, the first half of the year confirmed the viability of Ukraine’s macrofinancial stabilization model, but at the same time revealed its limitations.
“The return of GDP to modest growth and the replenishment of reserves are positive signs; however, the $28.3 billion merchandise trade deficit, high underlying inflationary pressures, and the budget’s dependence on external financing reveal the limits of this model. Only by developing its own production and export base will Ukraine be able to transition from an economy of wartime stabilization to a model of sustainable postwar growth,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
“Economic Monitoring” is a monthly analytical and statistical publication led by Maksym Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics. The publication analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the world’s leading economies, as well as trends in GDP, inflation, public finances, international reserves, foreign trade, and key risks to economic development.
Serbia’s presidential election may take place on December 13, 2026—this date is currently considered the most likely, according to the Serbian business news site Parametar, citing the Center for Local Self-Government (CLS).
According to the center, the presidential election would in that case be scheduled after the conclusion of the parliamentary election, and the campaign would last no more than 30 days.
However, the CLS emphasizes that a final decision has not yet been made and other options remain on the table.
Early presidential elections became necessary after Aleksandar Vučić resigned on September 27, ending his second presidential term early.
Ana Brnabić, Speaker of the National Assembly, has assumed the duties of acting president. Under Serbian law, the speaker of parliament may serve as acting head of state for no more than three months.
Following the early termination of the presidential term, an election must be held no later than three months thereafter. There must be no fewer than 30 and no more than 60 days between the official announcement of the election and Election Day.
Thus, the deadline for holding the presidential election is December 27, 2026; therefore, the date of December 13 cited by CLS falls within the timeframe prescribed by law.
Serbia’s political landscape now presents an unusual configuration. First, the country will hold early parliamentary elections, after which a new parliamentary composition is expected to take shape; then, Serbs will have to elect a new president.
Vucic himself stated after his resignation that he intends to participate in the parliamentary election campaign as an ordinary citizen.
Therefore, the December presidential election could become the second key vote for Serbia in less than two months and finally determine the new power structure following the conclusion of Vučić’s nine-year presidency.
The candidates for president have not yet been definitively determined.
On September 22, Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator LLC (OGTSU) announced a tender for voluntary health insurance for its employees.
According to the Prozorro electronic government procurement system, the expected cost of the service procurement is 163.8 million UAH.
According to the system, the deadline for submitting bids is October 8.
UkraineInvest, Ukraine’s agency for attracting and supporting investment, and Azerbaijan’s Agency for the Promotion of Exports and Investments (AZPROMO) have signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at expanding investment cooperation between the two countries, according to the Ukrainian Embassy in Azerbaijan.
The document was signed in Baku during the 2nd Azerbaijan International Investment Forum by AZPROMO Executive Director Yusif Abdullayev and UkraineInvest Executive Director Marina Khlistun, according to the Ukrainian Embassy in Azerbaijan.
The parties intend to foster direct contacts between businesses in both countries and create conditions for the implementation of joint investment projects.
Ukraine, in particular, is interested in attracting Azerbaijani capital to the country’s reconstruction projects. Potential areas of cooperation include infrastructure, energy, transportation and logistics, the agricultural sector, industry, and technology.
Yuriy Gusev, Ukraine’s ambassador to Azerbaijan, praised the efforts of the leadership and teams at AZPROMO and UkraineInvest in translating the two countries’ strategic partnership into concrete joint investment projects.
AZPROMO also confirmed the signing of the memorandum. According to the Azerbaijani agency, the document between AZPROMO and UkraineInvest was part of a package of 11 agreements signed during the international investment forum.
In total, the agreements concluded during the forum cover construction and development, the digital economy, renewable energy, industry, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, finance, water management, sports, and investment promotion.
The II Azerbaijan International Investment Forum took place in Baku on September 25–26, 2026, under the patronage of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. The event was organized by the Ministry of Economy of Azerbaijan and AZPROMO in strategic partnership with The European House – Ambrosetti.
UkraineInvest is the state agency responsible for attracting and supporting investment. The organization assists foreign and Ukrainian investors, provides consulting, analytical, and informational support, and participates in promoting Ukraine’s investment projects in international markets.
