According to Experts.new, the global aviation industry faced a new fuel crisis in 2026: a sharp rise in jet fuel prices, supply disruptions caused by the conflict surrounding Iran, and logistical risks in the Middle East are forcing airlines to revise their schedules, cut unprofitable flights, and prepare for fare increases.
The trigger for a new wave of discussion was a report by the German magazine *Spiegel* claiming that Lufthansa was allegedly preparing to ground up to 40 aircraft due to a fuel shortage. However, the magazine later retracted the report, and Lufthansa told Reuters that the information was incorrect and likely based on an outdated internal memo. According to Reuters, *Spiegel* acknowledged that it had used outdated information.
At the same time, the underlying issue of pressure on the aviation market from fuel prices remains relevant. Back in the spring, Lufthansa was indeed considering contingency plans, including a 2.5–5% reduction in capacity and the possible temporary grounding of 20–40 less fuel-efficient aircraft. This was not an immediate decision but rather a set of measures to be implemented should the situation regarding kerosene prices and availability worsen.
The biggest blow to the industry has been the cost of fuel. In June, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) nearly halved its profit forecast for the global aviation industry for 2026—to $23 billion. According to IATA’s estimates, airlines’ fuel costs could rise to $350 billion this year, and fuel’s share of operating expenses could reach 31.4%, up from 25.4% a year earlier.
This is critical for the aviation industry: fuel is traditionally one of the largest expense items, and a sharp spike in prices quickly turns some routes into money-losers. Short European flights, regional routes, older aircraft with high fuel consumption, and carriers with limited hedging capabilities are particularly vulnerable.
In early June, the European Commission stated that, at that time, there were no signs of an aviation fuel shortage in Europe. At the same time, officials in Brussels acknowledged that regional airports could be the most vulnerable, and that the main risk to passengers is not a physical shortage of jet fuel but rising ticket prices.
Major airlines are already responding to the situation. European carriers are warning that as old fuel hedges expire, rising jet fuel costs will have a greater impact on fares. Some companies are cutting flights, revising schedules, canceling less profitable routes, and accelerating the retirement of older aircraft.
Lufthansa announced in the spring that it would be cutting back part of its short-haul program, and other European carriers have also warned of the risk of fare increases. In the U.S., according to the Department of Transportation, major airlines’ fuel costs rose sharply in March: they increased by $1.8 billion, or 56%, over the course of the month.
Globally, the situation is being complicated by several factors at once. The conflict surrounding Iran has heightened risks to supplies transiting the Middle East; the closure or restriction of air corridors has increased route lengths and fuel consumption; and disruptions in maritime logistics along strategic routes have raised the cost of oil and petroleum product shipments.
An additional factor for Europe has been the controversy surrounding future EU regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas imports. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, and a number of other countries are advocating for a postponement of some of the requirements, warning that the new rules, set to take effect in 2027, could complicate imports not only of gas but also of petroleum products, particularly aviation kerosene.
Thus, while there is no confirmed systemic kerosene shortage on the European market yet, three persistent trends are evident: aviation fuel has become significantly more expensive, airlines are cutting unprofitable routes, and they are preparing to pass on some of the costs to passengers.
For passengers, this means that tickets on certain routes may become more expensive, especially on long-haul flights and routes with low load factors. For airlines, it means that fleet efficiency is once again becoming a key factor in competitiveness. Old aircraft, which were viable when fuel prices were low, are quickly becoming economically unviable amid high jet fuel prices.
In 2026, the aviation market is, in essence, undergoing a new post-pandemic stress test: demand for flights remains strong, but route profitability is deteriorating. Therefore, the main trend in the coming months will not be a halt to aviation, but a more expensive and selective flight network, where carriers will retain only those routes that can withstand the pressures of fuel costs, demand, and operating expenses.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that he is prepared to impose 100% tariffs on any country that imposes a digital services tax on American companies.
“Many European countries are discussing the immediate implementation of a digital services tax on American companies. Some of these countries are close to putting their words into action,” the U.S. leader wrote on the social media platform Truth Social.
“Please let this statement serve to make it clear that any country that imposes such a tax will immediately face 100% tariffs on any goods exported to the U.S.,” he emphasized.
Reigning unified world boxing champion Alexander Usyk will vacate all his heavyweight titles. He announced this on his Instagram page.
Usyk stated that he is giving up all his championship belts—“to make them available to other boxers.” The Ukrainian boxer noted that the decision to relinquish his titles is a conscious one and opens up new opportunities for him.
“I want to vacate all the belts I hold today so that the guys waiting in line for them can fight. Friends, I’m giving up the belts, but I’m not leaving the sport, because I have one last dance,” he said in a video message.
The mining and metallurgical group Metinvest is seeking a new investor to finance a EUR3 billion ($3.4 billion) steel plant in Italy, as the Ukrainian group seeks to reduce its liabilities, according to Bloomberg.
According to the agency, the group is seeking an additional partner for the project at the site of a former steel mill in Piombino on the Tuscan coast. The company wants to strengthen its financing “in light of war-related risks, given Metinvest’s significant operational presence in Ukraine.”
However, as noted, some potential lenders have become more cautious due to heightened geopolitical risks, including the recent conflict in the Middle East.
“As for the debt capital structure, we have good visibility on it, and we are continuing our dialogue with financial institutions to finalize this matter as well,” a Metinvest representative told the agency.
It is worth noting that the Italian government has designated this initiative as a “national strategic project,” and Metinvest Adria—a joint venture (JV) established last year with the Danieli Group to build this state-of-the-art facility—refers to the project as “the revival of steel in Italy.” It is expected to produce 2.7 million metric tons of low-carbon steel per year and create 1,100 jobs in the region.
According to the initial plan, financing was to consist of debt, government grants, and contributions from the JV partners to the share capital. Metinvest agreed to contribute more than EUR500 million, or 75% of the total equity, but is now seeking to reduce this amount to less than EUR300 million.
Bloomberg adds that Metinvest reported receiving “significant support from all stakeholders,” particularly from the Italian government, which has already approved grants and loan guarantees and allocated funds for the construction of a new berth at the Port of Piombino.
“Metinvest’s financial position deteriorated after the company had to use its cash reserves in April to redeem $428 million in bonds. Some of the company’s assets in Ukraine were lost or damaged as a result of the Russian invasion. Operations were also negatively impacted by high energy costs and a labor shortage,” the report states.
In addition, the report notes that S&P Global Ratings upgraded Metinvest’s credit rating this month following the bond repayment, but maintained a “negative” outlook on the business, emphasizing the need to build up cash reserves. According to S&P, Metinvest’s free cash flow stood at $150 million as of early May.
Metinvest is exploring the possibility of raising long-term financing and recently held meetings with investors to discuss the pricing and structure of a potential bond issuance. Like most Ukrainian companies, Metinvest has not tapped the bond market since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Despite this, the group has managed to meet its financial obligations and reduce its debt burden, according to a Bloomberg report.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group consisting of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Its facilities are located in Ukraine—in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions—as well as in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The holding company’s main shareholders are the SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%). Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest Group.
Foreign investors are ready to view Ukrainian real estate as an investment asset if the developer offers not just promises and presentations, but a finished product, a clear business model, transparent financial logic, and an exit strategy, said Oleksandr Ovcharenko, co-owner of Standard One, during his speech at Forbes Development 2026.
“A foreign investor should see not just attractive promises or pictures, but a finished product and a proven business model. The investor must understand all the risks involved, the payback period, the rate of return, and, most importantly, the exit strategy for this investment,” Ovcharenko noted.
According to him, foreign investors’ requirements for development projects have not fundamentally changed either before the full-scale war or during it. Transparency, a clear investment structure, a proven business model, and a track record of successful projects remain key for them.
Standard One notes that the company has already implemented this approach in its first project, S1 VDNG. Of the 660 apartments in the project, 235 were purchased by non-residents, including investors from Israel, the U.S., EU countries, and South Korea.
According to Ovcharenko, foreign buyers’ interest stems from the clarity of the build-to-rent model, which has long been in use in the EU, U.S., and UK markets. This format allows investors to assess how the asset operates, its projected returns, and potential exit strategies.
“We have offered the market a real product, a real model—the build-to-rent income property format—which has been operating in developed countries of the European Union, the U.S., and the UK for several decades. The Polish market for rental residential real estate has grown tenfold in recent years. Therefore, this model is proven,” he emphasized.
The company states that the yield on Standard One’s development projects ranges from 10% per annum in dollars, excluding capitalization. According to Ovcharenko’s assessment, this is significantly higher than the approximate 4.5% per annum that real estate markets in Israel or the U.S., for example, can offer.
“It is precisely this difference in returns that makes Ukrainian real estate attractive to foreign investors, who are accustomed to lower rates at home and are seeking more effective opportunities to invest their capital,” noted the co-owner of Standard One.
At the same time, foreign investors who have had negative experiences with the Ukrainian market in previous years are returning to investing cautiously. For them, the developer’s transparency, financial reporting, the project’s legal structure, and proven results are important.
Ovcharenko also noted that today’s investor has become more pragmatic: they seek to diversify risks, invest in liquid projects with smaller investment thresholds, and are increasingly considering collective investment vehicles.
The group cites S1 REIT as the answer to this demand—an investment company within S1 Group that allows investors to invest in income-generating real estate starting at 1,000 UAH and earn returns comparable to those of an individual apartment owner.
Standard One is a Ukrainian real estate development company that specializes in the “build-to-rent” model for income-generating residential properties. The company implements projects under the S1 brand and develops investment instruments to enable private investors to participate in the rental real estate segment.
PJSC “Ukrnafta,” a member of the “Naftogaz” Group, signed a grant agreement at URC 2026 in Gdańsk (Poland) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for 44.6 million euros to build 62 MW of distributed generation, according to Serhiy Koretskyi, chairman of the board of NAK “Naftogaz of Ukraine.”
“These funds will help accelerate the implementation of distributed generation projects to support the power grid amid Russian attacks on the energy sector. The €44.6 million grant will supplement the previously secured €80 million loan from the EBRD and allow us to carry out the planned work more quickly,” Koretsky wrote on Facebook on Friday.
He specified that the total capacity of the new generation facilities is 62 MW.
“This, in turn, will strengthen the power grid amid a shortage of generating capacity caused by Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. “I thank the EBRD leadership for their support and trust,” the Naftogaz CEO explained.
He also reported that at URC 2026, Naftogaz and the EBRD signed a memorandum on expanding cooperation in the areas of energy security, infrastructure restoration, and modernization.
According to him, during a meeting between Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso, specific terms of cooperation were discussed in detail, including securing financial mechanisms for the purchase of imported gas for the upcoming heating season.
As previously reported, Naftogaz signed an agreement with the U.S. EXIM Bank during URC 2026 in Gdańsk, which provides for the possibility of securing up to $300 million to purchase American equipment for the purpose of restoring the oil and gas infrastructure destroyed by Russia.
As Koretsky explained, the next step is practical work with U.S. companies to implement a financial mechanism that will allow for direct lending to U.S. suppliers and contractors for the purchase of equipment by companies within the Naftogaz Group.
At URC 2026, the Naftogaz of Ukraine Group also reached an agreement with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) on cooperation to attract private investment to Ukraine.
In addition, agreements were signed with the Polish company ORLEN regarding the development of LNG supplies to Ukraine and the exchange of expertise in the areas of sustainable development, decarbonization, and ESG.
JSC “Ukrnafta”—Ukraine’s largest oil producer—operates the country’s largest national network of gas stations, UKRNAFTA. In 2024, the company came under the management of Glusco. In 2025, it finalized a deal with Shell Overseas Investments BV to acquire the Shell network in Ukraine. In total, it operates nearly 700 gas stations.
The company is implementing a comprehensive program to restore operations and modernize the format of the gas stations in its network. Since February 2023, it has been issuing its own fuel vouchers and “NAFTACard” cards, which are sold to legal entities and individuals through Ukrnafta-Postach LLC.
The largest shareholder of “Ukrnafta” is NJSC “Naftogaz of Ukraine,” with a 50% + 1 share stake.
In November 2022, the Council of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine adopted a decision to transfer to the state the portion of the company’s corporate rights that belonged to private owners; the company is now managed by the Ministry of Defense.
