According to Experts.news, global production of humanoid robots has moved from isolated prototypes to the first mass-produced batches; however, the industry remains highly concentrated: Chinese companies accounted for about 85% of shipments in 2025.
According to estimates by the Chinese research center CCID, in 2025, Chinese manufacturers shipped approximately 14,400 humanoid robots, accounting for 84.7% of the global market. Thus, the global total was approximately 17,000 units. Other studies estimate global shipments at approximately 18,000 units.
According to IDC, the number of humanoid robots shipped worldwide in 2025 increased more than sixfold—by approximately 508%. However, statistics from various research organizations differ significantly, as some count only bipedal robots, while others also include wheeled humanoid platforms and general-purpose robots with artificial intelligence.
China remains the only country where humanoid robots are already being produced by the thousands by several manufacturers simultaneously. There are over 140 companies in the country working on humanoid robots, and the number of models available exceeds 330. AGIBOT, Unitree, and UBTECH have become the largest manufacturers.
TrendForce expects Chinese production of humanoid robots to grow by another 94% in 2026. Unitree and AGIBOT are expected to maintain their leading positions thanks to their well-developed supply chains, access to low-cost actuators, batteries, and sensors, and their capacity for mass assembly.
China’s advantage lies not only in artificial intelligence but also in its ability to rapidly reduce the cost of hardware. Some of Unitree’s entry-level models are already priced below $6,000, while most American and European systems are geared toward more expensive industrial pilot projects.
The U.S. lags significantly behind China in terms of the actual number of robots produced, but it has the largest announced manufacturing projects outside of China.
Figure has launched BotQ, a facility whose first production line is designed to produce up to 12,000 humanoid robots per year. In April 2026, the company announced its transition from prototypes to the production phase and that it had reached an assembly rate of one robot per hour.
Agility Robotics operates the RoboFab plant in Oregon with a potential capacity of over 10,000 Digit robots per year. Actual output is currently significantly lower than the stated maximum capacity.
The U.S.-Norwegian company 1X has begun full-scale production of its NEO home robot at a factory in California. Tesla is setting up its first production lines for Optimus but has not yet disclosed confirmed data regarding mass production.
South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group plans to build a facility in the U.S. with a capacity of up to 30,000 robots per year by 2028. The facility is expected to produce, among other things, the Atlas humanoid robots developed by Boston Dynamics. The first Atlas robots are scheduled to arrive at Hyundai’s U.S. facilities in 2028.
One of the most advanced European projects is Germany’s NEURA Robotics, which has developed the 4NE1 humanoid robot.
The company calls it the first European humanoid robot ready for industrial production. NEURA is collaborating with Bosch and Schaeffler, planning to scale up production of robots for industry, logistics, and service tasks.
In 2026, NEURA announced that it had raised up to $1.4 billion to expand mass production and develop a network of centers where robots will be trained to perform real-world tasks.
In Serbia, AGIBOT and Minth Group are preparing to launch a facility in Šabac. The initial production volume is stated at 1,000–2,000 humanoid robots per year. The facility is expected to open in August 2026, although the timeline has already been revised several times. Therefore, Serbia should for now be classified among countries with announced but not yet confirmed mass production.
If the project is implemented, Serbia could become one of the first countries in Europe where Chinese humanoid robots will be mass-produced and adapted for regional markets.
Japan has many years of experience in developing humanoid robots, but so far has focused primarily on research, components, medicine, and elder care. Kawasaki continues to develop the Kaleido platform but has not announced mass production on a scale comparable to that of Chinese companies. TrendForce believes that Japan’s competitive advantage could lie in actuators, sensors, control systems, and solutions for elderly care.
In South Korea, Samsung has acquired control of Rainbow Robotics and intends to integrate its robotics developments with its own artificial intelligence and software technologies. Hyundai is simultaneously developing Atlas through its subsidiary Boston Dynamics, though the group plans to build a large factory in the U.S.
There is no comprehensive international registry of humanoid robot production. Companies disclose the potential capacity of their factories much more frequently than actual production volumes, and the term “humanoid robot” is applied to various types of devices.
The only reliably confirmed fact is China’s leadership, with a share of approximately 85% of global shipments in 2025. The remaining roughly 15% is accounted for primarily by the U.S. and small batches, prototypes, and pilot series from Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
In 2026–2028, the distribution may change following the launch of plants by Figure, Agility Robotics, Tesla, Hyundai, NEURA, and the Serbian AGIBOT project. However, for now, China retains a significant advantage in terms of actual production volume, component costs, and supply chain readiness.
According to experts.news, a new heat wave is sweeping across the Balkans and a significant portion of the Danube basin. From July 31 to August 6, temperatures in several countries in the region will reach 35–40 degrees, which will exacerbate the drought and worsen conditions on the Danube, where water levels have already dropped to long-term lows and, in some places, record lows.
The highest temperatures are forecast for Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Hungary. In Belgrade, Novi Sad, Zagreb, Podgorica, Tirana, Skopje, and Budapest, temperatures are expected to reach 37–40 degrees. In Sarajevo, temperatures will reach 35–37 degrees.
In Bulgaria and Romania, the heat will initially be less intense, but by August 4–5, temperatures in Bucharest are expected to reach 36–37 degrees. In Moldova, temperatures will rise from 30 degrees on July 30 to 37 degrees on August 4–5. In the Odesa region and the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta, temperatures are expected to range from 27–32 degrees, but nighttime temperatures in early August may reach 24 degrees.
The situation in the upper part of the basin also remains challenging. In Vienna, temperatures are forecast to reach up to 39 degrees on July 31, and up to 38–39 degrees on August 3–4. In Budapest, temperatures from July 31 through August 5 will mostly range from 38–40 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms in Austria may cause a temporary rise in water levels, but the prolonged heat wave will prevent the accumulated precipitation deficit from being quickly offset.
On the Danube, Sava, and Tisa rivers in Serbia, water levels are below the low navigational marks. In Croatia and Serbia, shallowing has already led to the formation of large sandbars, small vessels running aground, and old sunken ships resurfacing, posing an additional danger to navigation.
Due to insufficient depth, barges and tankers are utilizing only 30–40% of their carrying capacity in certain sections. In July, Serbia received only about 25% of its planned volume of imported fuel via the Danube. Production at Serbia’s largest hydroelectric power plant, “Džerdap-1,” has fallen to about one-third of its usual level.
In Romania, the inflow of water into the Danube has dropped to approximately 1,650 cubic meters per second, compared to an average July figure of about 4,750 cubic meters. Low water levels have led to the shutdown of both power units at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant, which uses water from the Danube for cooling. In Hungary, restrictions have affected the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
In the Bulgarian-Romanian section, navigation has been restricted near the islands of Belene, Vardim, and Batyn. Vessels are forced to wait for passage clearance and reduce their cargo loads. At the end of July, a passenger motor ship also ran aground on the Danube, despite the restrictions on draft that were in effect.
Analysis of the Impacts on the Ten Danube Countries
In Germany and Austria, low outflow from the upper reaches means a reduction in the volume of water flowing downstream. Short-term downpours may cause localized rises in water levels, but sustained rainfall throughout the upper and middle basins is necessary for a stable recovery.
For Slovakia and Hungary, the main risks are related to restrictions on barge loading, a decline in river tourism, disruptions in the supply of fuel and raw materials, and strain on energy infrastructure. In Budapest, the Danube’s water level fell below previous lows, and tourist cruises on certain routes were suspended.
Croatia and Serbia are already feeling the direct impact of low water levels on the transport of fuel, industrial raw materials, and agricultural cargo, as well as on port operations. Sandbars and sunken vessels that have risen closer to the surface pose an additional hazard.
For Bulgaria and Romania, low water levels mean reduced vessel draft, queues at narrow sections, suspended ferry crossings, rising grain transportation costs, and risks to the energy sector. Romania is a key link in the route between Ukrainian Danube ports and Constanța, so delays are spreading throughout the entire Lower Danube corridor.
Moldova has a short outlet to the Danube via the port of Giurgiulești. It is located on the river’s maritime section and has greater depth than many inland ports, making it less directly vulnerable to the shallowing of the middle Danube. However, Moldovan cargo depends on the stable operation of the lower reaches of the river, the Romanian canals, and access to the Black Sea. Delays and rising freight rates on this route could increase the cost of the country’s imports and exports.
For Ukraine, the lower Danube is particularly important due to the operations of the ports of Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaysk. Critically low water levels are already limiting the normal loading of barges and delaying the fulfillment of contracts. As of July 20, the cost of transportation from Reni and Izmail to Constanta has risen to approximately $28 per metric ton, and some vessels are losing 30–60% of their cargo capacity.
The continued heat through August 6 will intensify evaporation and maintain pressure on the Danube’s water regime. Even with local rains, any improvement will most likely be temporary, as the water shortage is affecting the entire basin—from Germany and Austria to Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
For shippers, the most likely consequences will be a further reduction in barge loading capacity, the use of more vessels to transport the same volume, rising freight rates, delays in the delivery of fuel, grain, and industrial raw materials, as well as the partial rerouting of cargo to rail and road transport.
A significant improvement in the situation is possible only after a prolonged period of rainfall in the Alps, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and other parts of the basin.
GERMANY, HEAT, low water levels in the Danube, TRANSPORTATION, UKRAINE
The Central, Ingulets, and Northern Mining and Processing Plants (MPPs) of the Metinvest Mining and Metallurgical Group, which were reorganized into the United Mining and Processing Plant (UMPP), produced 16.7 million metric tons of ore, 7.8 million metric tons of concentrate, and 2.8 million metric tons of pellets during the January–June period of this year.
According to the company, the United Mining and Processing Plant exceeded its operational efficiency targets in the first half of the year.
It is noted that the first six months of 2026 served as a true test of resilience for the United Mining and Processing Plant. The enterprises operated under conditions of power supply restrictions, a shortage of railcars, technological challenges, and hostile attacks on production infrastructure. Despite this, thanks to the coordinated efforts of all departments, the company managed to ensure stable production, promptly repair damaged equipment, and exceed its operational efficiency targets.
“This result was driven by three key factors: the implementation of investment decisions—with the development of gas-fired power generation and measures to reduce the stripping ratio yielding the greatest impact—and the adoption of effective production practices. In particular, conducting blasting operations in-house at two open-pit mines and the systematic efforts of teams to reduce production costs,” the statement notes.
As previously reported, the United Iron Ore Mining and Processing Plant has iron ore reserves totaling 2.3 billion metric tons. According to Eduard Bespoyasko, chief geologist and head of the group’s mining department, even at 100% of the plants’ design capacity, reserves will last for at least half a century.
Metinvest is a vertically integrated group of mining and metallurgical enterprises. Its facilities are located in Ukraine—in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions—as well as in the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The holding company’s main shareholders are the SCM Group (71.24%) and Smart Holding (23.76%). Metinvest Holding LLC is the management company of the Metinvest Group.
CONCENTRATE, METINVEST, mining and processing plants, ORE, PELLETS
PJSC “Agroholding Avangard” (Kyiv), one of Ukraine’s leading producers and sellers of chicken eggs, reported revenue of 390.15 million UAH in the first half of 2026—four times less than in the same period last year—the company announced in its disclosure to the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (NSSMC) on Wednesday.
At the same time, according to the report, the company managed to post a net profit of 51.59 million UAH, compared to a net loss of 74.04 million UAH in the first half of last year.
“Over the past two years, competition in the chicken egg market has increased significantly due to the entry of new players who use high-tech equipment and ensure proper biosafety standards in production, enabling them to supply both the domestic market and the EU market,” the document states.
“Avangard” notes that it has no capital construction plans due to a lack of funding; improvements to fixed assets are planned only if funds become available.
As of June 30, the company’s assets increased by 0.8% compared to the beginning of the year—to 14.73 billion UAH, while equity and retained earnings rose by 1%, to 5.26 billion UAH and 4.75 billion UAH, respectively.
Avangard’s current assets increased by nearly 38% to 453.4 million UAH; specifically, cash in bank accounts rose to 15.6 million UAH from 2.4 million UAH. The company’s current liabilities—with no long-term liabilities—increased by 0.7% to 9.47 billion UAH.
The report also notes that the company does not take out bank loans, and cash flows from operating activities are sufficient to meet its obligations on time.
Avangard cited the following as significant issues affecting its operations: violations of price parity for agricultural products; low purchasing power among the population and low selling prices, as well as high production costs due to high prices for inventory, raw materials, supplies, labor, and services.
“There has been a sharp decline in the rate of poultry equipment upgrades. Problems in the financial, banking, tax, and political spheres make it impossible to plan the company’s activities with a long-term, forward-looking perspective,” the company states, but at the same time believes that “poultry farming and the production of chicken eggs are promising areas of activity due to the significant demand for poultry products.”
According to the report, the payroll for the reporting period amounted to 72.48 million UAH, which is 49.94 million UAH less than during the same period last year, due to employee layoffs.
PJSC “Agroholding Avangard” is part of Avangardco IPL—the poultry division of the “Ukrlandfarming” agro-industrial group, founded by businessman Oleg Bakhmatyuk, but currently, the main shareholder, with a 98.328% stake, is listed as “TNA Corporate Solutions LLC,” owned by American Nicholas Piazz. Avangardco IPL specializes in the production of chicken eggs and egg products and is one of the largest producers of these goods in Ukraine.
In March 2022, the “Avangard” agricultural holding reported losses of 1.5 billion hryvnia since the start of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine. The Russian aggression led to the shutdown of a number of the group’s key poultry farms, and at the Chornobaivska Poultry Farm (in the town of Bilozerka, Kherson Oblast), the chickens were left without food and died.
PJSC “Agroholding Avangard” holds 100% ownership in LLC “Rohatyn Poultry Farm,” “Okhocheenska Poultry Farm,” “Teleshivka Poultry Farm,” and “Bohodukhiv Poultry Farm,” as well as 94.14% of LLC “Transmagistral Trading House,” 49.09% of LLC “Imperovo Foods,” and 54.13% of LLC “Avangard Trading House,” and operates 11 separate branches: eight engaged in poultry breeding and three in poultry meat production.
“Ukrlandfarming” is one of the largest agricultural holdings in Eurasia. It is engaged in grain cultivation, cattle breeding, and the distribution of agricultural equipment, fertilizers, and seeds. “Avangard,” a subsidiary of the holding, is Ukraine’s largest producer of eggs and egg products.
Avangard, eggs, revenue, profit, agricultural holding
Ukrainian banks expect further growth in their business and household loan portfolios over the next 12 months, as well as an increase in demand for all types of corporate and retail loans in the third quarter, according to the results of a survey by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).
At the same time, these expectations have become more subdued: the balance of responses regarding growth in the business loan portfolio fell to 38.2% from 72.2% in the first quarter of 2026, and for retail loans—to 38.9% from 65.1%.
Banks forecast a slight improvement in the quality of the corporate loan portfolio over the next 12 months: the balance of responses stood at 7.3% compared to 7.1% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for the fourth consecutive quarter, respondents expect the quality of loans to households to deteriorate, although the corresponding balance has become less negative—“minus” 16.3% versus “minus” 17%.
Financial institutions also expect growth in deposits from businesses and households. The balance of responses regarding the expected change in the volume of corporate sector deposits rose to 53.7% from 50.7%, reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion, while the balance for household deposits rose to 53.8% from 53.3%.
In the second quarter, business demand for loans increased: the overall balance of responses rose to 35.5% from 34.4% in January–March, also reaching its highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.
Demand for long-term loans saw the sharpest increase—rising to 35.4% from 24.6%. Demand for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) rose to 24.7% from 23.8%, while demand for loans to large enterprises also increased, though at a slower pace than a quarter ago: the balance of responses fell to 26.9% from 34%.
Banks cited the need for capital investments and working capital as the main drivers of the growth in corporate demand. In the third quarter, they expect demand to increase for all types of business loans, particularly long-term ones.
Household demand also rose in the second quarter for both mortgage and consumer loans. According to banks’ estimates, demand for consumer loans has been growing since the second quarter of 2023, and for mortgages—since the beginning of 2025.
In July–September, respondents expect a further increase in household demand for loans, particularly for mortgages. Several large banks cited lower borrowing costs and improved prospects for the real estate market as the main drivers of rising mortgage demand.
Lending standards for the corporate sector remained virtually unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 1.7%, compared with “minus” 2.9% a quarter earlier. Standards for SMEs eased, though to a lesser extent than in January–March: “minus” 3.3% versus “minus” 25.2%.
In the third quarter, banks generally do not plan to change their corporate lending standards but expect them to ease for SME loans.
The approval rate for business loan applications remained largely unchanged in the second quarter: the balance of responses stood at 0% compared to 12.6% a quarter earlier. At the same time, for SMEs, it stood at 13% versus 24.4%, as some banks reported the possibility of providing them with larger loans.
For households, banks eased standards in the second quarter for both mortgages and consumer loans. For mortgages, the net balance of responses fell to “minus” 14.9% from zero, while for consumer loans it stood at “minus” 21.5% compared with “minus” 23.1% a quarter earlier.
Competition among banks remained the main factor behind the easing of consumer lending standards. For mortgages, additional factors included expectations regarding overall economic activity and the outlook for the real estate market.
Banks also expect a further easing of standards for both mortgage and consumer loans in the third quarter.
The approval rate for household loan applications rose in April–June. Banks reported lower interest rates, higher loan amounts, and longer terms for consumer loans, as well as lower mortgage costs and somewhat stricter collateral requirements for mortgages.
Banks assessed the debt burden on businesses in the second quarter as moderate, although assessments regarding SMEs tended toward the low end of the scale. The debt burden on households remained low.
In the second quarter, banks recorded an increase in credit, foreign exchange, and liquidity risks. The balance of responses regarding credit risk rose to 30.3% from 24.9% a quarter ago; for foreign exchange risk, it stood at 14.5% versus 21.3%; for liquidity risk, 8.4% versus 18.8%; while interest rate and operational risks remained largely unchanged.
At the same time, respondents expect currency and credit risks, in particular, to intensify in the third quarter.
The survey was conducted from June 16 to July 8, 2026, among credit managers at 25 banks, which accounted for 96% of the banking system’s total assets.
BANK, BUSINESS, LOAN, NBU, POPULATION
According to Interfax-Ukraine, this article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of April 2026. The analysis is based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, the State Customs Service, the International Monetary Fund, Eurostat, BEA, BLS, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE, and other official institutions. Monthly and quarterly statistical data published after the end of the reporting period were used for April indicators.
Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, presented an overview of the key trends that shaped the state of the Ukrainian and global economies in April and early May 2026.
Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Indicators
As of the end of April, the Ukrainian economy remained macro-financially stable, although inflationary, currency, and foreign trade risks had intensified. Compared to March, consumer inflation accelerated, international reserves declined for the third consecutive month, and the trade deficit continued to widen. At the same time, the government ensured funding for defense, social benefits, and critical budgetary needs, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained control over the foreign exchange market.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 0.6% compared to the first quarter of 2025. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the decline was 0.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Nominal GDP amounted to 2,047.2 billion UAH. This negative trend was attributed to electricity shortages, infrastructure damage, delays in external financing, weak investment activity, and adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the year. At the same time, private consumption remained relatively stable, while the manufacturing sector, trade, and certain service sectors showed growth.
In its April forecast, the National Bank revised downward its estimate for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3%. The main reasons were further damage to energy and logistics infrastructure, a larger electricity shortage, high energy prices, and weaker first-quarter results. The NBU expected economic growth to be supported by consumer demand and investments in reconstruction and the defense-industrial complex, but did not forecast a rapid transition to a sustainable recovery.
“The first-quarter results confirmed that the Ukrainian economy remains extremely sensitive to energy, military, and fiscal shocks. Positive domestic demand and business resilience can no longer fully offset the losses from infrastructure destruction, electricity shortages, and weak exports. The 1.3% growth forecast implies actual stagnation on a per-capita basis. “Therefore, the main priority should be not only to maintain financial stability but also to restore production capacity,” Urakin noted.
The inflation situation worsened in April. Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-over-year, up from 7.9% in March. Prices rose by 1.4% over the month and by 4.9% since the beginning of the year. Core inflation rose to 7.6% year-over-year, inflation for services reached 13.3%, and the increase in fuel prices hit 36.1% year-over-year.
The main source of inflationary pressure was the rise in energy and fuel prices, which increased business costs for logistics, electricity, and production. Additional factors included wage increases, the pass-through of the hryvnia’s earlier depreciation to consumer prices, and rising costs of certain food products and transportation services. Bread, grains, sunflower oil, fish, restaurant services, and household services saw the fastest price increases.
The NBU’s April forecast projected that inflation would accelerate to 9.4% by the end of 2026. A return to a steady decline was expected in 2027, when inflation was projected to slow to 6.5%, and to reach the 5% target in 2028.
On April 30, the National Bank’s Board kept the policy rate at 15% per annum. The regulator explained the decision by the need to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets, keep inflation expectations under control, and ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market. The NBU’s forecast called for keeping the rate at 15% at least until the second quarter of 2027. In the event of further intensification of price pressures, the regulator did not rule out the use of additional measures, including a rate hike.
“The acceleration of inflation to 8.6% and the sharp rise in fuel prices left the National Bank no room to continue its policy easing cycle. Under current conditions, the 15% rate is not so much a tool for curbing lending as it is a mechanism for safeguarding confidence in the hryvnia. The risk of a premature rate cut now significantly outweighs the potential short-term effect on economic activity,” Urakin emphasized.
The foreign exchange sector remained under control but required significant support from the regulator. As of May 1, 2026, Ukraine’s international reserves stood at $48.215 billion, having declined by 7.3% in April. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline in reserves.
In April, the NBU sold $3.577 billion on the foreign exchange market, while inflows into the government’s foreign currency accounts totaled only $377.9 million. $716.6 million was allocated to service and repay foreign-currency government debt, and Ukraine paid another $255.3 million to the IMF. The losses were partially offset by a positive revaluation of financial instruments amounting to $378 million. Despite the decline, the reserves were sufficient to finance 4.9 months of future imports.
“The decline in reserves from nearly $52 billion to $48.2 billion in a single month is significant, but not yet critical. Far more important is the underlying cause: the private foreign exchange market remains structurally in deficit, and international inflows do not always coincide with the timing of intervention needs and debt payments. Therefore, the stability of the hryvnia will continue to depend on the regularity of external financing and Ukraine’s ability to narrow the trade gap,” Urakin believes.
According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January–April 2026 amounted to $46.1 billion. Imports reached $32.2 billion, while exports totaled $13.9 billion. Thus, the trade deficit for the four-month period was approximately $18.3 billion, with imports exceeding exports by a factor of 2.3.
Ukraine imported the most goods from China—$8.7 billion—followed by Poland—$3.1 billion—and Turkey—$2.2 billion. The main destinations for Ukrainian exports were Poland—$1.5 billion—Turkey—$1.2 billion—and Italy—$857 million.
In the import structure, machinery, equipment, and transportation accounted for $13.3 billion; fuel and energy products—$5.3 billion; and chemical industry products—$4.6 billion. Exports were primarily driven by food products at $8.5 billion, metals and metal products at $1.3 billion, and machinery, equipment, and transportation at $1.2 billion.
“The increase in the trade deficit to $18.3 billion in just four months is one of the main macroeconomic challenges. A significant portion of imports is objectively necessary—these include energy resources, equipment, transportation, and defense products. However, the export base remains too narrow and reliant on raw materials. Without the development of processing, machine building, the defense industry, and service exports, Ukraine will continue to offset the trade deficit with international aid and reserves,” Urakin emphasized.
The budgetary situation remained tense but under control. From January through April, the general fund of the state budget received 1.04 trillion UAH. Total cash expenditures from the general fund amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH, which is 13.8% more than during the same period in 2025. In April alone, General Fund revenues totaled 302.6 billion hryvnias, while expenditures amounted to 433.1 billion hryvnias.
Expenditures on security and defense over the four-month period reached 854.1 billion hryvnias, or 63.3% of all General Fund expenditures. In April, 283.1 billion hryvnias were allocated for these purposes. UAH 555.5 billion was spent on public sector wages and related benefits, UAH 235 billion on social security, UAH 205.4 billion on subsidies and transfers to enterprises, UAH 151.4 billion on goods and services, and UAH 103.2 billion on servicing the national debt.
International grants for January–April totaled 228.2 billion hryvnias, with 55.1 billion hryvnias received in April alone. In total, 1.43 trillion hryvnias flowed into the general and special funds of the state budget over the four-month period, while state budget cash expenditures amounted to 1.7 trillion hryvnias.
“The budget remains functional, but its structure is entirely dictated by the war. When nearly two-thirds of the general fund’s expenditures are directed toward defense and security, the capacity to finance long-term development remains limited. Under these conditions, it is particularly important that international aid cover the budget’s civilian needs, while domestic resources are directed as effectively as possible toward defense, energy, and industrial recovery,” Urakin noted.
The Global Economy
As of the end of April 2026, the global economy remained resilient, but the geopolitical and inflationary environment had deteriorated significantly. The war in the Middle East caused energy prices to rise, heightened inflationary expectations, and forced major central banks to postpone further monetary easing.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming the conflict would be limited in duration and scope. The IMF warned that a longer war, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, new trade disputes, and high public debt could significantly worsen the outlook.
The U.S. economy maintained positive momentum. According to the BEA’s revised estimate, real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 grew by 2.1% on an annualized basis compared with the previous quarter. Growth was driven by investment, exports, and government and consumer spending.
At the same time, inflation in the U.S. continued to accelerate. In April, the CPI rose by 3.8% year-over-year, following a 3.3% increase in March. Core inflation stood at 2.8%, while energy inflation reached 17.9%. In just one month, energy prices rose by 3.8%, and gasoline prices by 5.4%.
On April 29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5–3.75%. The Fed cited elevated inflation, rising global energy prices, and high uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East.
The eurozone showed significantly weaker economic momentum. According to a preliminary Eurostat estimate released on April 30, eurozone GDP in the first quarter grew by only 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8% year-over-year. This indicated that the region’s economy was effectively stagnating.
Annual inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 3.0% in April, up from 2.6% in March. In the European Union, it rose to 3.2%. Services, energy, and food made the largest contributions to the rise in prices.
On April 30, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.0%, its main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and its marginal lending rate at 2.40%. The ECB emphasized that risks of rising inflation and a slowdown in economic growth had intensified due to the energy shock.
In the United Kingdom, by contrast, inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in April, down from 3.3% in March. Core CPI fell to 2.5%, and services inflation to 3.2%. At the same time, motor fuel prices rose significantly due to the external energy shock.
On April 30, the Bank of England kept its base rate at 3.75%. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported this decision, while one voted to raise the rate to 4%.
“April showed that the global cycle of rapid interest rate cuts has effectively been put on hold. The U.S. faced accelerating inflation to 3.8%, the eurozone to 3%, and central banks were once again forced to focus on energy risks. For Ukraine, this means more expensive global capital, more challenging conditions for exports, and additional pressure due to fuel prices,” Urakin noted.
China’s economy grew by 5.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. Nominal GDP reached 33.419 trillion yuan. Industrial production increased by 6.1%, the services sector by 5.2%, and foreign trade in goods by 15%. At the same time, real estate investment fell by 11.2%, indicating that structural problems persist. In April, China’s CPI rose by 1.2% year-over-year and by 0.3% month-over-month. Average inflation for January–April stood at 0.9%. Meanwhile, retail sales in April grew by only 0.2% year-over-year, indicating weakness in domestic consumer demand.
India maintained the highest growth rates among major economies. Following the transition to a new statistical base, the official estimate for real GDP growth in fiscal year 2025/26 was raised to 7.6%, and nominal GDP growth to 8.6%. The main drivers remained the services sector, domestic consumption, construction, and government investment.
Turkey again faced a sharp spike in inflation in April. Consumer prices rose by 4.18% month-over-month and by 32.37% year-over-year. Year-to-date inflation stood at 14.64%. The figure exceeded March’s level of 30.87%, indicating the instability of the disinflation process. At the same time, Turkey’s GDP grew by approximately 3.6% in 2025, confirming the economy’s ability to sustain business activity even amid high price pressures.
Brazil showed more balanced dynamics, although inflation also accelerated. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 12.7 trillion reais at current prices. In April 2026, the IPCA index rose by 0.67% month-over-month, and annual inflation reached 4.39%, up from 4.14% in March. The largest contributions came from food, medical goods, and services.
“China, India, Turkey, and Brazil demonstrate four distinct development models. China maintains high growth rates thanks to industry and exports, but still faces challenges with domestic demand and real estate. India relies on demographics, services, and investment. Turkey sustains growth at the cost of very high inflation. Brazil is moving more slowly but is trying to strike a balance between economic activity and price stability. “For Ukraine, the main conclusion is that long-term growth is impossible without its own manufacturing, technological, and export base,” Urakin believes.
Conclusions
As of the end of April 2026, Ukraine maintained macrofinancial stability, but key indicators pointed to increasing risks. Real GDP contracted by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter; inflation accelerated to 8.6% in April, with core inflation rising to 7.6%, while the policy rate remained at 15%.
International reserves fell to $48.2 billion, a decrease of 7.3% over the month. The trade deficit for January–April reached $18.3 billion. Revenues to the general fund of the state budget totaled 1.04 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH. UAH 854.1 billion, or 63.3% of all general fund expenditures, was allocated to security and defense.
Positive factors included substantial reserves, a controlled exchange rate policy, international financing, steady consumer demand, business adaptability, and the development of defense production. The main risks were the continuation of the war, the destruction of energy infrastructure, rising fuel prices, labor shortages, weak exports, and the budget’s dependence on foreign aid.
The global economy also entered a more challenging period. The IMF projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 but warned that downside risks predominated. Inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 3.8%, and in the eurozone to 3.0%, while the central banks of the U.S., the eurozone, and the United Kingdom kept interest rates unchanged. China grew by 5% in the first quarter, India maintained a growth rate of over 7%, while Turkey once again faced inflation exceeding 32%.
“April 2026 showed that Ukraine’s stabilization model remains viable, but its financial buffer is shrinking. The simultaneous acceleration of inflation, depletion of reserves, and widening of the trade deficit signal that external aid cannot be the sole foundation of economic stability. Ukraine needs to transition from financing its immediate survival to creating a new production model. This model should be based on energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products. “Only such a transition can transform macrofinancial stability from a temporary safety net into the foundation for long-term development,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
