The net inflow of foreign direct investment into Montenegro in the first quarter of 2026 amounted to EUR75.6 million, which is almost 40% less than the figure for the same period last year, when it reached EUR122.2 million, according to data from the Central Bank of Montenegro.
At the same time, the Telegram channel “Serbian Economist” reports that the total volume of foreign direct investment received by the country decreased only slightly — by 2.5%, to EUR206.5 million. The main pressure on the final indicator was exerted by the growth in capital outflow: foreign investors withdrew EUR130.9 million from Montenegro, compared with EUR89.5 million a year earlier.
Thus, the Central Bank’s data show not so much a sharp decline in interest in Montenegro on the part of foreign investors as an intensification of the reverse movement of capital. Money continues to flow into the country, but at the same time there is an increase in the divestment of companies, the repayment of loans previously provided to local firms, and the withdrawal of funds through the sale of real estate.
The largest volume of capital outflow in the first quarter accounted for investors from Turkey — EUR24.8 million. Of this amount, EUR21.1 million was related to the withdrawal of funds from companies in Montenegro, while another about EUR3 million was related to the sale of real estate.
Investors from Serbia were in second place, having withdrawn EUR17.5 million. EUR8.3 million accounted for the sale of real estate in Montenegro, EUR3.7 million for the purchase of real estate abroad, and another EUR3.2 million for the withdrawal of funds from companies. They were followed by investors from the UAE with EUR17 million.
The growth in capital outflow is especially important for Montenegro, since the country’s economy traditionally depends heavily on foreign investment, primarily in real estate, tourism, construction and related services. In recent years, investors from Turkey, Serbia, Russia, EU countries and the Middle East have played a noticeable role in the market.
The decline in net inflow may become a signal for the authorities of the need to assess the quality of investments more carefully. For the economy, it is important not only how much money is received, but also how much of it remains in the country, creates jobs, supports productivity and forms a long-term tax base.
The average salary of full-time employees in Ukraine rose by 0.5% in April compared to March 2026, reaching 30,515 UAH, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS).
According to the statistics agency, the highest average salary last month was recorded in Kyiv—48,003 UAH—and Kyiv Oblast—30,584 UAH—while the lowest was in Kirovohrad Oblast—21,199 UAH—and Chernivtsi Oblast—21,687 UAH.
In April 2026, the highest wages were observed in the information and telecommunications sector—77,861 thousand UAH, financial and insurance activities—69,446 thousand UAH, professional, scientific, and technical activities—40,358 thousand UAH, public administration and defense – 35,553 thousand UAH, in the wholesale and retail trade sector – 35,442 thousand UAH, in industry – 33,341 thousand UAH, in transportation, postal, and courier services – 29,262 thousand UAH, in real estate operations – 27,707 thousand UAH, and in construction – 24,094 thousand UAH.
At the same time, the lowest average wages were observed in the arts, sports, entertainment, and recreation sector—19,855 thousand UAH, among educators—20,037 thousand UAH, and among healthcare and social assistance workers—20,868 thousand UAH
According to data from the State Statistics Service, wage arrears as of May 1, 2026, amounted to 3.7 billion UAH (in March – 3.6 million UAH)
The State Statistics Service notes that the data does not include territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation or areas where hostilities are (were) taking place.
As reported, consumer price inflation in Ukraine slowed to 1.4% in April 2026 from 1.7% in March, 1% in February, and 0.7% in January of this year. According to the State Statistics Service, on an annualized basis, inflation rose to 8.6% as of the end of April 2026 from 7.9% as of the end of March, 7.6% as of the end of February, and 7.4% as of the end of January.
At the end of April, the NBU revised its inflation forecast for 2026 downward from 7.5% to 9.4%, and for 2027 from 6% to 6.5%.
According to The Serbian Economist, Kosovo will not introduce compulsory military service and instead intends to develop a total defense model, Acting Prime Minister Albin Kurti stated.
According to him, this approach better suits current security conditions than traditional compulsory service. Kurti cited the example of Finland, where defense is viewed not only as the army’s responsibility but as a system of participation by the entire society, including government institutions, business, civil protection, infrastructure, and reserve mechanisms.
The idea of compulsory service in Kosovo has been discussed for several years. Kurti had previously advocated for its introduction, but now the government is effectively changing its approach: instead of conscription for young people, the focus is on a broader concept. This model involves preparing society and the state for crises, rather than merely increasing the size of the army.
The comprehensive defense plan was approved by the Kosovo government back in September 2024. It is intended to integrate military readiness, civil defense, critical infrastructure resilience, information security, mobilization capabilities, and interagency coordination. Kurti did not specify a timeline for launching the new model.
The decision comes amid Kosovo’s ongoing increase in defense spending. Under Kurti, Pristina has increased funding for security forces, purchased Turkish Bayraktar drones, and received U.S. approval to acquire Javelin anti-tank systems. Authorities have also announced plans to establish their own ammunition production facility and a drone development laboratory. Reuters previously reported that Kosovo plans to allocate approximately EUR1 billion to defense over four years and increase spending by 60%.
However, this model has its limitations. The Finnish example cited by Kurtis was built up over decades and combines universal defense with mandatory service for men and a well-developed reserve system. Therefore, simply copying this model is not enough for Kosovo: the country will have to create its own system of training, financing, civil defense, and interagency coordination.
For the region, this decision will be viewed through the prism of relations with Serbia. Belgrade does not recognize Kosovo’s independence, declared in 2008, and considers Kosovo part of its territory. Pristina, in turn, views the strengthening of security forces as a response to threats from Serbia and instability in northern Kosovo, where a significant Serbian community resides.
The situation is further stabilized by the presence of KFOR forces under NATO command. There are more than 4,000 peacekeepers in Kosovo; they play a particularly important role in the north, where tensions and clashes regularly arise between local Serbs, the Kosovo authorities, and security forces.
Kosovo has been recognized by more than 100 countries, including the United States and most EU member states, however, its independence is not recognized by Serbia, Russia, China, Ukraine, and several EU member states, including Spain, Greece, Romania, Slovakia, and Cyprus. Because of this, Kosovo is not a member of the UN or NATO, although it is striving for Euro-Atlantic integration.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2908
Ukrainian companies, which after the start of the full-scale war have been more actively entering new foreign markets, are increasingly facing the need to check foreign partners even before the start of negotiations or the signing of a contract. One of the tools for such checks is the international business data of Dun & Bradstreet, access to which in Ukraine is provided by D&B and Interfax-Ukraine.
Counterparty verification is especially important for exporters, importers, logistics companies, manufacturers, distributors and suppliers working with companies from the EU, the United States, the Middle East, Turkey and Asia. For business, this is not only about a formal check of registration data, but also about assessing financial stability, ownership structure, business activity, possible non-payment risks and reputational factors.
“For Ukrainian business, entering foreign markets today often takes place faster than the formation of its own international history. That is why checking a partner through global business data is becoming not a bureaucratic procedure, but an element of company protection. In conditions of war and complicated logistics, a mistake in choosing a counterparty may cost not only money, but also time, a market and customer trust,” said Maksym Urakin, Development and Marketing Director of Interfax-Ukraine, head of the D&B-Interfax-Ukraine business unit, Candidate of Economic Sciences.
According to him, Ukrainian companies often check a foreign partner only after a problem arises with payment, supply or fulfillment of contract terms. Instead, international practice provides for a preliminary assessment of a counterparty even before the start of active cooperation.
Assistance from D&B and Interfax-Ukraine may be useful for companies that want to understand whom they are working with abroad, whether the partner is actually carrying out the declared activity, how stable it is and what risks may arise in long-term cooperation.
For Ukrainian exporters, this is also a way to improve the quality of their own risk management. If a company sells products with deferred payment, works through distributors or enters a new region, a preliminary check of the partner makes it possible to reduce the likelihood of financial losses.
Dun & Bradstreet is an American company in the field of business data, analytics, commercial information and risk management, founded in 1841. The company provides international tools for business identification, counterparty verification, assessment of credit and commercial risks, compliance and work with global supply chains. D&B maintains a global business data database and works with companies, financial institutions, government agencies and international organizations.
Interfax-Ukraine is an independent Ukrainian news agency that has been operating in the Ukrainian market of political and economic information since 1992 and has a reputation as an authoritative and competent provider of timely and objective information. The agency’s editorial office and headquarters are located in Kyiv.
Issue No. 2 – May 2026
Analysis of the Current Situation in Ukraine’s Foreign Exchange Market
Throughout May, the hryvnia exchange rate slowly followed a path of depreciation; however, the hryvnia lost value so gradually that a relatively stable equilibrium effectively formed in the market. Demand did not increase significantly, and in the interbank market, the NBU continues to act as the key market maker, supplying currency through interventions.
Despite the absence of panic and frenzied demand for foreign currency, the hryvnia is reaching new levels—the exchange rate has crossed the 44.2 UAH/USD threshold. There are signs that a reversal should not be expected in the near future. To meet the state budget’s needs, the government must convert financial aid and loan tranches received from partners and donors—denominated in euros and dollars—into hryvnia, which automatically contributes to the hryvnia’s weakening. The strengthening of the dollar on the global market has also worked against the hryvnia: investors are seeking opportunities to invest specifically in dollar-denominated assets, particularly U.S. Treasury bonds, which bolsters confidence in the U.S. currency, whose exchange rate is strengthening despite negative foreign policy developments related to the absence of a peace agreement between Washington and Tehran. The hryvnia’s future exchange rate trajectory depends on domestic demand for foreign currency, the state of the NBU’s international reserves, the Ministry of Finance’s need for new volumes of domestic government bond issues, fluctuations in the dollar’s exchange rate against the euro on the global market, and global oil price dynamics.
Global Context
The Federal Reserve, which decided at its April meeting not to change the key interest rate, now faces a dilemma regarding how to curb the surge in inflation. According to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, reducing inflation in the U.S. remains the top priority, as inflation continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. However, he emphasized that the U.S. central bank will continue to take a “balanced approach” to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In effect, this implies a possible decision by the Fed to raise rates as early as the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
The war in Iran remains the main factor affecting the U.S. economy. The parties have yet to reach any substantive negotiations. In late May, the U.S. launched new strikes in Iran. In response, Iran attacked a U.S. airbase in Kuwait. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the country could strike Oman due to its attempts to establish control over the Strait of Hormuz alongside Iran. Trump demands complete freedom of navigation through the strait and threatens a large-scale attack on Oman.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are reflected in fluctuations in oil prices. At the end of May, the price of Brent crude rose by more than 2% to approximately $95 per barrel, while the price of WTI crude also rose by more than 2% to $91 per barrel. The price increase occurred after the U.S. carried out new attacks on Iran, targeting a military facility in Bandar Abbas, a strategically important port city.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been steadily strengthening against the euro in May. While the dollar traded at 1.1779 USD/EUR at the beginning of the month, it stood at 1.1636 USD/EUR by the end of May. As of the end of May, the DXY index shows a 0.72% increase in the U.S. dollar’s exchange rate over the past month. The dollar is being supported by interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds, which remain quite high, as well as investors’ hopes for a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East.
Domestic Ukrainian Context
In May, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market saw a moderate decline in demand for foreign currency. Average weekly currency sales on the interbank market in April amounted to $817 million, while the average weekly figure for the first three weeks of May was $745 million. During April, the NBU sold $4.08 billion through interventions, and $2.23 billion over the first three weeks of May. The hryvnia exchange rate has been gradually moving toward devaluation since early May; however, while it stabilized at 43.96 UAH per dollar in the first half of May, it began to fall more rapidly in the last ten days of the month, and as of May 29, the NBU’s official exchange rate stood at 44.26 UAH/USD. The cash market in Ukraine was also affected by weakening demand in May; official data on sales and purchase volumes and the cash market balance are expected to be released in early June, but preliminarily there should be no surprises—it likely indicates a trend toward increased currency sales rather than purchases.
Throughout May, the hryvnia was supported by positive sentiment regarding future inflows of funds from partners, as well as by the decline in oil prices on the international market. The European Commission recently announced that in June, the EU plans to transfer €9.1 billion in financial aid to Ukraine.
Thus, €5.9 billion will be allocated for Ukraine’s defense needs, and €3.2 billion for budget support. This is the first tranche under the European Union’s loan program totaling €90 billion. Another inflow of funds is planned for June—€2.8 billion under the Ukraine Facility mechanism. However, there are still doubts regarding the IMF loan program and the June disbursement from the fund.
On May 27, an International Monetary Fund mission began its work in Kyiv. It is tasked with assessing Ukraine’s compliance with the requirements for the release of the next tranche. Earlier reports indicated that the key issue in agreeing on the program’s milestones is tax policy, particularly the taxation of electronic platforms. Tax Bill No. 12360 was submitted to parliament and even reached a vote. However, on May 26, the Verkhovna Rada did not support key amendments to the bill, which provided for the abolition of tax exemptions on international parcels up to 150 euros. Failure to meet the program’s key tax milestone calls into question Ukraine’s ability to quickly receive tranches from the IMF.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
Controlled devaluation in the domestic currency market in May proceeded smoothly and without surprises. The official exchange rate at the beginning of the month stood at 43.96 UAH/USD, and on May 29—44.26 UAH/USD. On the interbank market, the rate stood at 43.9–43.95 UAH per dollar in early May, and by the end of the month, the interbank rate had shifted to 44.28–44.31 UAH/USD. The National Bank remains the primary seller of currency, which it sells through foreign exchange interventions; no panic demand was observed in May.
The cash market was also calm in May; citizens are calmly buying and selling dollars and euros at exchange offices and banks, and there is no currency shortage. As of early May, the buying rate for cash dollars was 43.55–43.8 UAH/USD, and the selling rate was 44.10–44.25 UAH/USD. By the end of the month, the buying rate was 43.95–44.15 UAH/USD, and the selling rate was 44.35–44.6 UAH/USD. Spreads at the end of May rose to 0.5–0.7 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors:
· Slow exchange rate fluctuations and subdued demand for foreign currency in May. The hryvnia is depreciating, but there is no panic buying; the NBU is meeting importers’ requests.
· Cash market – no currency shortage. Exchange offices and banks have sufficient amounts of dollars, and the public is showing subdued demand for foreign currency.
· International factors: The latest escalation in the Middle East is affecting investment plans; however, recent trends point to growing confidence in the dollar and dollar-denominated assets, and the dollar is steadily strengthening on the international market.
· Market behavioral expectations: while the international market is focused on the new Fed chair and the June FOMC meeting, where key interest rates will be discussed, in Ukraine, the greatest hopes rest on the absence of significant infrastructure damage in the near future, which would reduce the need for foreign currency to import equipment. The exchange rate is also influenced by the situation regarding the receipt of financial aid and the state of international reserves.
Forecast
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
Throughout May, the euro moved within a weakening trend against the dollar, and this trend was fully reflected in the Ukrainian currency market. While May began at 51.46 UAH/EUR, by the end of May the rate reached 51.43 UAH/EUR.
The cash market did not change significantly despite the hryvnia’s gradual strengthening against the euro. While the buying rate stood at 50.95–51.4 UAH/EUR in early May, and the selling rate was within the range of 51.75–52.10 UAH/EUR, by the end of May the buying rate was 50.85–51.3 UAH/EUR, and the selling rate was 51.75–51.90 UAH/EUR. As for spreads, they range from 0.4–0.6 UAH/EUR for most participants, with only a few seeing spreads rise to 0.9–1 UAH/EUR.
Key influencing factors:
· On the international market, the trend of a strong euro has given way to a strengthening dollar. In May, the dollar strengthened its position thanks to investor optimism and attractive yields on U.S. government bonds, though the war in Iran still influences the exchange rate trajectories of major currencies.
· Inflation in the EU is rising, but the ECB is taking a wait-and-see approach and not changing rates. It is expected that the ECB may raise interest rates in June, even if the war in the Middle East ends. Experts are convinced that the EU central bank will increase borrowing costs by 0.25 percentage points due to rising energy prices, which are significantly driving up inflation in Europe.
· Demand for the euro in Ukraine has stabilized. The cash market is influenced by currency supply from the public; there is no shortage of cash euros.
Forecast:
· Short term (2–4 weeks): on the Ukrainian market, the euro may remain within the range of 51.45–51.85 UAH/€.
· Medium term (2–4 months): if the ECB raises interest rates, the euro exchange rate on the international market is likely to strengthen; in Ukraine, fluctuations within the range of 51.80–52.50 UAH/€ are possible.
· Long term (6+ months): the euro exchange rate may remain within the range of 52.20–53.80 UAH/€. The main influencing factors are the war in the Middle East, oil market prices, the inflation rate in the Eurozone, and the ECB’s decisions on key interest rates.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
The dollar is steadily strengthening on the international market. Confidence in the U.S. currency is growing despite the ongoing escalation in the Middle East. The dollar’s strengthening implies a possible acceleration of the hryvnia’s depreciation trend.
War in Iran is one of the factors influencing the exchange rate, but it is no longer the key one. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached the home stretch, but investors are once again actively buying U.S. Treasury bonds. This signals continued investment in dollar-denominated assets, and in Ukraine, it signals the purchase of dollars as a reliable currency for building savings.
The Fed is preparing to change key interest rates. Possible rate changes as early as June could briefly disrupt the strong dollar trend in the global market; however, if a portfolio includes several liquid currencies, this helps minimize risks.
The U.S. dollar’s dominant position in the global market leaves no doubt: investing in the dollar is a reliable source of profit. Despite accelerating inflation, the U.S. economy is growing, and the dollar remains a liquid currency, so investors should keep at least 50% of their assets in dollars.
Safe investments – a guarantee of capital preservation. In all financial scenarios, investors should identify stable sources of profit and ensure the reliability of their asset allocations.
Geopolitical tensions as a factor influencing investment plans. A successful resumption of negotiations between Washington and Tehran would signal further positive prospects for the dollar’s exchange rate trajectory.
Oil prices – an important indicator of changes in the currency market. Rising oil prices could increase the EU’s dependence on high energy costs, which would weaken the euro’s position while strengthening the dollar’s.
Focus on liquid currencies. Despite geopolitical risks and inflationary spikes in both the EU and the US, the dollar and the euro remain the core currencies for investors and should be included in both short-term and long-term currency strategies.
Diversification is the key to safe investments. Investors should build currency portfolios across various currencies, and while the dollar and euro remain the core assets, it is advisable to periodically allocate funds to other reliable European currencies—such as the British pound and the Swiss franc.
The hryvnia is for short-term trading. The national currency is on a devaluation trajectory; therefore, long-term savings are best held in foreign currencies, while the hryvnia should be kept only in the amount needed for quick investments in the national currency.
What’s important in the news. You need to keep track of everything related to the war in Iran, as well as the trajectory of oil prices. In June, news from the U.S. regarding the Fed’s key rate, as well as the ECB’s decision on the base rate, will be essential to monitor. In Ukraine, the main indicators of the situation in the foreign exchange market will be developments on the front lines, information regarding the state of the energy sector, news from the IMF, and updates on the receipt of new loan tranches and international financial aid.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.
Users of this material should independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product-based FinTech marketplace platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.
Global stainless steel production in January–March of this year increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last year—rising to 15.774 million tons from 15.387 million tons. Production increased in the U.S., Asia, and China specifically, while it declined in Europe.
These figures are cited in a press release from The World Stainless Association (formerly the International Stainless Steel Forum, ISSF).
According to the information, stainless steel production in Europe decreased by 4.6% in the first quarter of 2026, to 1.468 million tons. In the U.S., production increased by 2.3%, to 566,000 tons.
In Asia, stainless steel production rose by 3.3% to 13.435 million tons, while in China it increased by 4.3% to 9.842 million tons.
In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Ukraine, and the UK), production increased by 6.7% to 305,000 tons.
As reported, global stainless steel production in 2025 increased by 2.1% compared to the previous year—to 64.157 million tons from 62.821 million tons. At the same time, stainless steel production in Europe in 2025 decreased by 1.9% to 5.659 million tons. In the U.S., production increased by 7.6% to 2.099 million tons. In Asia (excluding China and South Korea), stainless steel production last year rose by 2.7% to 55.313 million tons, while in China it increased by 3.6% to 40.868 million tons. In other regions (Brazil, Russia, South Africa, the UK, and Ukraine), production fell by 11.3% to 1.086 million tons.
Global stainless steel production in 2024 increased by 7% compared to 2023—to 62.621 million tons from 58.539 million tons, with production rising in all major regions. In 2023, production of this type of steel increased by 4.6% compared to 2022—to 58.444 million tons; in 2022, it decreased by 5.2% compared to 2021—to 55.255 million tons.
Earlier, the information and analytical center Experts Club released a video dedicated to global steel production and leading producing countries – https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VgUU9MEMosE
