The export potential of Ukraine’s agricultural sector in the upcoming 2026/2027 season will grow significantly thanks to the sale of accumulated record-high stocks.
This was announced by Maksym Kharchenko, an analyst at UkrAgroConsult, during the Black Sea Grain.Kyiv conference on Wednesday.
According to the agency’s forecast, the total harvest of major grain crops in Ukraine next season is expected to reach 59.4 million tons, while oilseeds are projected at 23 million tons. Meanwhile, the total volume of carryover grain stocks will increase by 293% and reach nearly 13 million tons. The most significant growth is expected for wheat—up to 4.7 million tons (370% more than previous figures), barley—up to 1.36 million tons, and peas—up to 222,000 tons.
Due to active warehouse unloading, wheat exports in the new season could rise to 20 million tons, and corn exports to 28.5 million tons. At the same time, production growth is forecast in the oilseed segment: the sunflower harvest could reach 13.7 million tons compared to 10.8 million tons last year, rapeseed—3.6 million tons, and soybeans—5.7 million tons. At the same time, carryover stocks of sunflower seeds are expected to decrease by 61%, while soybean stocks will increase by 50%—to 101,000 tons.
The forecast for the production and export of processed products also shows positive trends. Specifically, sunflower oil production is expected to reach 6 million tons, with exports at 5.6 million tons. Sunflower meal production is projected at 5.8 million tons, with an export potential of 4.65 million tons.
Analysts expect soybean oil production in the 2026/2027 season to reach 1 million tons, of which 950,000 tons are planned for export. Soybean meal output will total 4.4 million tons, with an export potential of 3.55 million tons.
In the rapeseed processing segment, oil production is projected at 1.55 million tons, with nearly the entire volume (1.5 million tons) to be exported, while rapeseed meal production and exports will amount to 1.95 million tons and 1.8 million tons, respectively.
According to experts, an analysis of production in the Black Sea region indicates a stabilization of the overall harvest. In particular, wheat production in Russia for the 2026/2027 season is projected at 85.8 million tons, compared to 92.8 million tons this year, though exports will remain consistently high—around 47 million tons. As for the countries of the Danube region, the total harvest is expected to reach 64.96 million tons. An increase in grain production is forecast in Hungary—to 8.88 million tons in total for wheat and corn—as well as in Poland—by 1.7%. In contrast, Bulgaria is expected to see a 13.4% decline, to 6.2 million tons of wheat, while in Romania, wheat and corn production will stand at 9.1 million tons and 10.8 million tons, respectively.
“We see two main factors as we enter this season: rising prices for diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizers. Small producers have been hit the hardest, as they are forced to purchase inputs right before the start of the planting season. This problem will have an even greater impact on the 2027 harvest. There is a realistic scenario of lower yields not only in Ukraine but also globally, which will put significant pressure on prices,” Kharchenko concluded.
In January-February 2026, Ukraine exported 9.95 million tons of agricultural products worth $4 billion, which is 9.3% higher than the figure for the same period last year in monetary terms, according to Taras Vysotsky, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture.
“Despite the conditions of war, the agricultural sector is maintaining stable export volumes and increasing revenue. We see a positive trend—the share of processed products is growing, in particular, rapeseed oil exports have increased significantly. Diversifying export markets remains an important task,” the press service of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture quoted Vysotsky as saying.
The Ministry of Economy clarified that the EU remains Ukraine’s key partner (50% of revenue), while the share of the Middle East and North Africa accounted for 20%. Turkey’s role in the export structure grew to 13%, and shipments to that country more than doubled in monetary terms—reaching $507 million. The main export items remain corn, sunflower oil, wheat, soybeans, and meat.
Rapeseed oil exports showed the most rapid growth, reaching $102 million compared to $3 million last year (8th place in the agricultural goods ranking). Corn exports rose by 20%—to 5.6 million tons, mainly due to shipments to Turkey. At the same time, wheat exports fell by 43% to 1.2 million tons, due to a record harvest in the EU (134.4 million tons in 2025) and a drop in demand for Ukrainian grain in that region.
Ukraine could increase its annual agricultural exports from $24.2 billion to over $100 billion by shifting from exporting raw materials to increasing the production of deeply processed products, which would require $85 billion in investments, said Leonid Kozachenko, president of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation (UAC).
“We have the best opportunities among other countries, as almost 30% of the world’s black soil is concentrated in Ukraine. However, it is surprising that a country like the Netherlands, with 4.5 times less land, produces food and derivative products worth about $108 billion. They use less than 20% of their own raw materials, import 80%, but rank 2nd or 3rd in the world, while we, with our raw materials, are only in the third ten,“ he said at the conference ”Profitable Agribusiness 2026.”
According to the expert, the total capitalization losses of the agricultural sector from the Russian Federation’s military aggression are currently estimated at more than $120 billion, while direct losses amount to $11.5 billion. In particular, almost 4.7-5 million hectares of land remain mined or contaminated with heavy metals. Livestock losses amount to 5 million chickens, 350,000 pigs, and 150,000 cows. In addition, more than 7,000 units of agricultural equipment and hundreds of logistics facilities have been lost.
Kozachenko expressed confidence that if the genetic potential of plants and animals is realized by at least 90%, Ukraine will be able to reach production levels of 150 million tons of grain and oilseeds, 25 million tons of milk, and up to 10 million tons of meat.
To realize this potential, according to the UAC president, Ukraine needs to attract $85 billion in investments over the next 10 years. These funds should be directed towards the development of the food, pharmaceutical and perfume industries ($37 billion), livestock farming ($18 billion), crop production ($8 billion), irrigation restoration ($7 billion) and bioenergy development ($5.5 billion). Another $10 billion should be allocated to logistics, horticulture, and greenhouse farming.
To stimulate the development of the agricultural sector, the UAC proposes introducing land and network connection incentives for deep processing plants, introducing a 25% subsidy for equipment, and creating a specialized mortgage banking institution. It is also proposed to involve international companies in the certification of products according to European standards directly in Ukraine.
“We have found financial resources of over $50 billion that were ready to be given to us to create the first mortgage bank in Ukraine. We have everything we need to launch this mechanism, so let’s work together to convince officials to start using it. We really need to cross the $100 billion gross output threshold, and this should be our strategic priority for the next decade,” Kozachenko emphasized.
The UAC president also announced joint proposals from a number of agricultural associations to accelerate the privatization of state-owned enterprises that can be involved in processing chains and to stimulate the development of industrial parks with special fiscal conditions. In particular, agricultural associations propose introducing subsidies of 10% for enterprises that use domestically produced deep-processed raw materials in their production and providing state guarantees to foreign creditors for the purchase of technological equipment.
An important aspect remains the digitization of the industry, in particular the creation of digital platforms for entering global markets, following the example of the Ukrainian resource Allbiz, which specializes in e-commerce and structuring offers in the B2B sector, as well as the introduction of European licensing practices through accredited offices of international certification companies, the UAC president concluded.
Ukraine maintains a significant positive trade balance with a number of key partners, which partially offsets the deficit in relations with China and EU countries.
The largest surplus in the first half of 2025 was recorded in trade with Egypt — $605.0 million. Spain ranks second with a balance of $515.3 million, followed by the Republic of Moldova — $448.4 million. Positive dynamics are also observed in relations with the Netherlands ($357.6 million), Algeria ($276.6 million), and Lebanon ($243.8 million).
Ukraine also has a high trade surplus with Iraq ($189.0 million), Libya ($133.6 million), Saudi Arabia ($128.4 million), and Kazakhstan ($113.6 million).
“The positive trade balance indicates that Ukraine is capable of competing effectively in international markets, especially in the agricultural sector and metallurgy. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that these markets are vulnerable to changes in the global economic situation, price fluctuations, and political factors,” emphasized Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club and economist.
According to him, maintaining a positive balance in relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa is a key element of Ukraine’s foreign trade strategy.
“Egypt, Spain, and the countries of the Arab world are stable importers of Ukrainian agricultural products. This is a strategic direction that needs to be developed further, as it creates a safety cushion for the economy against the backdrop of significant import costs,” Urakyn emphasized.
Analysts note that consolidating positions in the African and Middle Eastern markets could become a long-term factor in strengthening Ukraine’s foreign economic balance.
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The value of Ukrainian agricultural exports in May 2025 rose to $432.7 per ton, which is 37.4% more than a year earlier, when this figure was $315 per ton, said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval.
“This is clear evidence that Ukraine is increasingly exporting products with higher added value,” he wrote on Telegram.
The minister noted that in May 2025, farmers exported $2.29 billion worth of products, shipping 4.69 million tons.
According to Koval, the top five countries importing Ukrainian agricultural products in May (by value) were Turkey ($404.9 million), the Netherlands ($147.4 million), Poland ($138.3 million), Italy ($127.7 million), and Egypt ($109.8 million).
He recalled that the development of deep agricultural processing is a priority for the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. And it is already yielding concrete results. In May 2025, exports of butter amounted to $20.5 million (2.9 thousand tons), which is $7,077 per ton of product, and exports of juices (fruit and vegetable) amounted to $19.8 million (almost 9 thousand tons) at a cost of $2,213 per ton.
“The figures show that Ukrainian products are competitive and in demand on world markets. We are continuing to work on establishing Ukraine as a supplier of high-quality products with high added value,” the Minister of Agrarian Policy concluded.
Agricultural exports account for more than 50% of Ukraine’s total exports, up 4.5% compared to March 2024, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said during a government meeting on Friday.
As he wrote on Telegram, “agricultural exports remain the basis for our trade and account for more than 50% of everything Ukraine sells abroad.”
Shmyhal also informed that last year, exports of Ukrainian goods increased by 13%, and in March of this year, the positive dynamics of export growth continued – plus 4.5% compared to March last year.
“In the face of global trade turbulence, the Ukrainian government will strengthen support for national producers and Ukrainian exporters. We have provided all the necessary tools for this,” the Prime Minister emphasized.
At the same time, he reminded that the “Made in Ukraine” program, in particular, provides UAH 500 million for compensation for the purchase of Ukrainian agricultural machinery. The state compensates farmers for up to 25% of the cost of this equipment if it is made in Ukraine.
“In total, this year we will allocate more than UAH 6 billion from the budget to support the agricultural sector alone,” Shmyhal emphasized.
As reported, Ukraine exported 9.98 million tons of goods worth $3.6 billion in March 2025.
