In a new episode of the Experts Club YouTube channel, Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the UN, the IMF, and the World Bank.
Macroeconomic Indicators of Ukraine
Maksim Urakin cited data from Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Social Studies, who estimates that about 50% of citizens will return after the war.
“Demographics is an important factor for economic recovery, but the threat of depopulation and labor shortages cannot be ignored. In the medium term, the decline in the demographic growth potential in Ukraine can only be offset by migration,” Urakin emphasized.
The expert noted that the main risks to the economy remain the duration of the war and the instability of international aid.
“In the third quarter of 2023, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 8.2%. The negative balance of foreign trade increased 3.2 times, which is an alarming signal. The public debt has slightly decreased compared to August figures, but in 2024 it may exceed the country’s GDP for the first time, which poses significant risks to economic stability,” the economist said.
Prospects for the Global Economy
The founder of Experts Club also analyzed the global economy, noting a slowdown in growth in 2024 to 2.2%.
“One of the key reasons for the slowdown in global economic growth is the decline in GDP in developed countries. We are witnessing the lowest GDP growth in developed countries since the 1980s, with the exception of the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The unprecedented cycle of interest rate hikes by major central banks in recent years has also played a significant role in slowing growth. These rate hikes are driven by the need to control inflation, but at the same time, they limit economic activity,” the expert explains.
According to the expert, the current macroeconomic situation in Ukraine and the world requires further analysis. For Ukraine, the main challenges in the coming years will be the need to restore Ukraine after the war and manage the public debt.
For more information on the situation in the Ukrainian and global economy, please see the video on the YouTube channel “Club of Experts” at the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byJnfmie7bM
You can subscribe to the channel here: https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
ECONOMY, economy review, EXPERTS CLUB, MACROECONOMICS, URAKIN, world economy
INVESTMAN UKRAINE is a place of strength and partnerships for all interested in the business space of Ukraine, as the main place of Investmen, where everyone contributes to the development of the investment sphere, leading industries and the economic front of our country as a whole.
When – 30.11.2023 (Thu)
Where? – Parkoviy ECC (Kyiv)
What time? – start of registration 10:00,
start of the event program at 11:00
networking and informal part from 17:00.
It will be held in the format of the First Investment Exhibition, which will include:
– Expo-zones of investment companies and projects by areas;
– Topical panel discussions and QA sessions in separate mini-halls;
– Lots of networking and socializing;
– Drawings from partners;
– Charitable initiatives
– Setting a Ukrainian Record.
Sponsor of the event in the direction of technological projects – “Brave Inventors“.
Partner of the event on land investments – “ZemInvest“.
Let’s create together a productive synergy of business activity and trend actualization, negotiations and networking, providing or attracting investments, successful contracts and partnerships, expert opinions and exchange of experience in an unforgettable atmosphere of community of the most courageous investors of Ukraine.
THE NUMBER OF VISITORS IS LIMITED BY SECURITY CONDITIONS
Don’t hesitate and choose your best participation format – https://www.investman.com.ua/doluchitisya/.
Media partners: Interfax-Ukraine, open4business, Experts club, Fixygen
On November 19, 2023, the VIII International Forum of Winemakers and Sommeliers was held in Kyiv, at the InterContinental Kyiv Hotel (2A Velyka Zhytomyrska St.), within the framework of which the following events took place:
– The jubilee XX All-Ukrainian Sommelier Competition “Master Sommelier – 2022-2023”,
– VII All-Ukrainian Cavist Competition “Best Cavist of Ukraine – 2022-2023”,
– Round table of winemakers and sommeliers as part of the Winemakers’ Dinner,
– Open tastings and presentations of wines, spirits, cheeses and other products for all guests of the events.
Organizers of professional events:
– Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers,
– Association of Cavists of Ukraine,
– The first in Ukraine Master Class Sommelier School.
General Partner – TM “Vinos dela Luz”
Partners: TM Big Wines, SV plus, Poli1898, Delamain, AELRED, Eyguebelle, ACHA, Purity, Zinka, Voda.ua, Cigar House Fortuna, Academy of Labor, Social Relations and Tourism, InterContinental Kyiv Hotel.
Ambassadors of several countries, MPs, the Chairman of the Trade Unions of Ukraine, heads of alcoholic beverage importers, restaurant managers, sommeliers, winemakers, heads of wine companies and wine boutiques, representatives of business structures, media and TV, wine connoisseurs and lovers attended the events.
The Forum opened with a minute of silence in honor of the deceased wine industry professionals who had previously participated in the Forum as participants and jury members.
Then, the anthem of Ukraine was performed live by a young singer Severina.
The professional jury was headed by Dr. Ricardo F. Nunez, owner of the international wine holding VINOS DELA LUZ. For the fourth year in a row, Dr. Nunez has been heading the jury and the Forum of Winemakers and Sommeliers of Ukraine.
Members of the professional jury:
– Natalia Blagopoluchna – President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers, head of the First Sommelier School in Ukraine “Master Class”
– Oleksandr Sharay – sommelier, commercial director of SV+ company
– Yegor Bilov – sommelier of the InterContinental Kyiv Hotel, winner of the All-Ukrainian Sommelier Competition 2018
– Oleg Kravchenko – co-owner of Winbar, “Best Sommelier of Ukraine – 2011”
– Olga Girman – sommelier, winner of the All-Ukrainian Sommelier Competition 2021
– Dmytro Gurinchyk – national manager of the Cigar House “Fortuna”
– Irina Kovaleva, Director of the Tairov National Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking.
In the Final of the Contest, the participants competed in different rounds:: “Presentation and decanting of wine”, “Enogastronomy” (real serving of dishes from the chef of the restaurant Ruslan Morozyuk), “Cheese and wine”, “Blind tasting”, “Mixology”, “Cigar Tour”, etc.
In some of the tours, the participants communicated exclusively in English.
After the end of the competitions and the final work of the professional jury, the places were determined as follows:
“XX Anniversary Sommelier Competition 2022-2023”:
1st place – Svyatoslav Klymchuk (Kyiv, Bigoli restaurant)
2nd place – Igor Postoyankin (Kyiv, Catch restaurant)
3rd place – Natalia Sokolovska (Kyiv, DDS company)
“VII All-Ukrainian Cavist Competition 2022-2023”:
1st place – Vasyl Chuchman (Ivano-Frankivsk, Winetime wine boutique)
2nd place – Yevhen Boyko (Kyiv, Winetime wine boutique)
3rd place – Yevhen Brodyuk (Kyiv, Winetime wine boutique)
All finalists received Diplomas and gifts from the Partners, and the Winners received personalized cups.
The Chairman of the Jury Dr. Ricardo F. Nunez congratulated the Organizers and Finalists, thanked the Armed Forces of Ukraine and wished to hold the next Winemakers and Sommeliers Forum in peaceful Ukraine.
The General Information Partner is Interfax Ukraine News Agency.
Media Partners – Club of Experts, OPEN for BUSINESS, Kyiv Diplomatic magazine
EXPERTS CLUB, FORUM, KIEV, ricardo f.nunez, SOMMELIERS, URAKIN, WINEMAKERS, БЛАГОПОЛУЧНА
The article summarizes and analyzes the main macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. In connection with the entry into force of the Law of Ukraine “On Protection of the Interests of Business Entities during Martial Law or a State of War”, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine suspends the publication of statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months after its termination. The exception is the publication of information on the consumer price index, separate information on statistical indicators for 2021 and for the period January-February 2022. The article analyzes open data from the State Statistics Service, the National Bank, and think tanks.
Demographic indicators of Ukraine
According to Ella Libanova, Director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies. Ella Libanova, depopulation is an inevitable scenario for Ukraine. A labor shortage is absolutely inevitable.
According to the estimates she presented at the Regional Economic Forum, as of the beginning of this year, the population in the government-controlled areas was 31.6 million people, and now it has slightly increased.
Libanova pointed out that the population forecast for the beginning of 2033 within the borders of 1991 Ukraine ranges from 26-35 million people.
According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this is compensated for by migration.According to her, the potential for demographic growth has been exhausted, and this can be compensated for by migration.
Economic recovery
Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP), after declining by 10.5% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, started growing in the second and third quarters.
“At the same time, the World Bank forecasts Ukraine’s GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024, which is 1.5 percentage points (p.p.) and 0.5 p.p. higher than the June estimates, respectively,” said Maksim Urakin.
The key risk for our economy remains a longer duration and intensity of the war, as well as a decrease in the volume or loss of rhythm of international assistance, the resumption of a significant electricity shortage due to further destruction of the energy infrastructure and other risks.
Analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade
Maksim Urakin also drew attention to the factor of the growing negative foreign trade balance, which has been observed since the beginning of the war.
“The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2023 increased by 3.2 times compared to the same period in 2022 – to $19.402 billion from $6.026 billion. This means that the cost of purchasing the goods Ukraine needs is almost $19 billion higher than the income from exporting Ukrainian goods to other countries. “, emphasized Urakin, PhD in Economics.
Ukraine’s financial situation in 2023
According to the expert, the main factors that characterize the state of the Ukrainian economy are public debt, international reserves and inflation.
“According to the calculations made during the preparation of the draft state budget, the projected amount of public debt calculated in national currency will amount to UAH 8,183,862.1 million and will be 104.6% of GDP. The state-guaranteed debt will amount to UAH 476,671.9 million and will be 6.1% of GDP,” said Maksim Urakin.
According to the expert, the main source of funding for Ukraine’s budget is still related to foreign aid.
“Half of the budget is financed through taxes and fees, while the other half is financed through international grants and loans,” he emphasized.
“Ukraine’s international reserves as of October 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $39 billion 708.2 million,” the analyst added.
As for inflation, it continues to decline.
“Consumer prices in Ukraine increased by 0.5% in September 2023 after a decline of 1.4% in August and 0.6% in July, according to the State Statistics Service. At the same time, inflation was recorded at 1.9% in September 2022, so in annual terms in September 2023 it decreased to 7.1% from 8.6% in August and 11.3% in July,” Urakin said.
Thus, the economic situation in Ukraine, according to the founder of the Club of Experts, continues to require close monitoring and adaptation of strategies in response to changing conditions.
On November 18-19, the national squash competition “Ukrainian Squash Cup 2023” took place on the courts of the capital’s Sport Life fitness club in Teremky.
Representatives from Kharkiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Odesa, Kherson, and Lviv came to Kyiv. In total, more than 130 athletes took part in the competition, which is an absolute record for the number of players among national squash tournaments held under the auspices of the Ukrainian Squash Federation. The tournament was attended by 16 women, 74 men and 42 juniors.
Anastasia Kostiukova and Ruslan Sorochinsky became the champions in the adult categories, defeating Anastasia Krykun and Nikita Panov in the final matches.
List of winners of the Ukrainian Squash Cup 2023 tournament:
Children under 9 years old:
1st place Tomenchuk David
2nd place Kostiukov Artem
3rd place Zakharchenko Danylo
Girls under 11 years old:
1st place Orlenko Alexandra
2nd place Krasnokutska Daria
3rd place Lysenko Polina
Boys under 11 years old:
1st place Hutsaylyuk Andriy
2nd place Schneider Artem
3rd place Matyukhov Yegor
Girls under 13 years old:
1st place Syvoplias Victoria
2nd place Daria Gerya
3rd place Kukushkina Maria
Boys under 13 years old
1st place Doroshenko Gleb
2nd place Tomenchuk Mykyta
3rd place Tymoshchuk Ivan
Boys under 15 years old:
1 place Shcherbakov Yegor
2nd place Roman Shkarupylo
3rd place Klymenko Mykyta
WOMEN:
1st place Kostyukova Anastasia
2nd place Krykun Anastasia
3rd place Vlasenko Daria
MEN:
1st place Sorochinsky Ruslan
2nd place Panov Nikita
3rd place Petrovych Ruslan
The honorary guests of the Ukrainian Squash Cup were acting Minister of Youth and Sports of Ukraine Matviy Bidnyi, world judo champion, chairman of the NOC of Ukraine’s athletes commission Georgiy Zantaraya, two-time Olympic champion in canoeing Yuriy Cheban, two-time NBA champion with the Los Angeles Lakers Stanislav Medvedenko.
The main organizer of the tournament is the NGO Squash Federation of Ukraine, the main fitness partner of the event is the Sport Life fitness club network, and the main media partner of the tournament is Interfax-Ukraine, Experts club analytical center, prize partners – REIMA, TECNIFIBRE and EYE, medical partner of the tournament – ADONIS clinic network, tournament water – KRAINA, tournament hotel – FAVOR, awarding partner – SHEF restaurant. Thermopab and Lukashuk Dental Clinic were also partners of the tournament.
ADONIS, EXPERTS CLUB, kostiukova, sorochinsky, squash cup, SQUASH FEDERATION
Azerbaijan has been waiting for more than two months for a response from Armenia to official Baku’s comments on the proposal for a peace treaty, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said.
“We are waiting for Armenia to respond to our comments on the proposal. We have exchanged proposals on the draft peace treaty several times, but now we have been waiting for more than two months, since September 11, for the Armenian government to respond to us. We want to know their opinion on these comments. But we have not received a response,” Aliyev said in a press statement on Monday.
The Azerbaijani head of state emphasized that the reason is that Armenia “receives bad advice,” in particular from France.
“France plays a very destructive role in the South Caucasus. In fact, Armenia has become a puppet of the French government, and this can pose a serious threat to regional stability,” Aliyev said.
He reiterated that Azerbaijan “does not need any war”. “We fought on our territory, restored justice and international law. But the Armenian government and political establishment are thinking about revenge. And the wrong messages of the French government actually create illusions in the Armenian government, and perhaps in the Armenian public opinion,” that they can launch military aggression against Azerbaijan, the president said.
He emphasized that Azerbaijan is ready for peace. “We are ready for peace, but a just peace based on the recognition of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of both countries. Peace based on common sense and historical justice,” Aliyev said. Earlier, the Experts Club analyzed the political and economic situation in the Caucasus. You can learn more about the prospects for the development of Transcaucasia after the end of the Karabakh conflict in the video on the Experts club channel here: https://youtu.be/reyUMjFBFhU
