In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
Reuters reported, citing an analytical note from JPMorgan Chase, that the bank expects gold prices to rise to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, despite a sharp correction in the precious metals market.
According to the bank’s assessment, the key drivers will remain steady demand from central banks and investors, as well as the trend toward diversifying reserves in favor of real assets and reducing dependence on the US dollar. In particular,
JPMorgan Chase expects central bank gold purchases to total around 800 tons in 2026.
At the same time, gold fell 9.8% on January 30, the sharpest decline since 1983, and the decline intensified after the CME Group raised margin requirements in the spot market. On February 2, prices reportedly fell to $4,677.17 per ounce after hitting a record high of $5,594.82 last week.
Separately, Deutsche Bank AG confirmed its gold price forecast of $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, also linking growth potential to continued demand from the official sector and investors.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented an analysis of the world’s leading gold-producing countries in its video on YouTube channel — https://youtube.com/shorts/DWbzJ1e2tJc?si=BywddHO-JFWFqUFA
According to the results of 2025, Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest mobile operator, increased its revenue and EBITDA by 24-26%, exceeding the forecast announced in November 2025, according to a press release from telecommunications holding company VEON, the main shareholder of Kyivstar Group with an 89.6% stake.
According to preliminary unaudited estimates, capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to be in the range of 29-31% of revenue.
VEON expects the results to exceed the 2025 forecast published on November 10, 2025, along with the financial results for the third quarter of 2025, the release said.
As reported, Kyivstar served 22.5 million mobile subscribers in the third quarter of 2025, down 3.6% from the previous year, while the number of 4G customers grew by 2.4% to 15 million.
In the third quarter of 2025, the company’s EBITDA was UAH 7.1 billion, which is 21.5% more than in the third quarter of 2024, and in dollars, the growth was 20.4% to $171 million.
In the first half of 2025, Kyivstar increased its EBITDA by 32% to $06 million, while its revenue grew by 28% to $539 million.
In August 2025, Kyivstar Group Ltd. (Nasdaq: KYIV) announced the completion of its listing on the Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (Nasdaq) and the start of trading in the shares of the largest mobile operator Kyivstar under the ticker KYIV.
In its January review, the International Grains Council (IGC, headquartered in London) raised its forecast for global grain harvest in 2025/26 (July-June) by 31 million tons to a record 2 billion 461 million tons.
This is primarily due to improved forecasts for corn harvests, mainly in the US and China, and barley harvests in Canada and Australia.
In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 2 billion 238 million tons.
“Thanks to an increase in yield (by 5%) and an increase in acreage (by 1%), the grain harvest in the 2025/26 season will break all existing records. In addition to record corn and wheat harvests, barley and sorghum harvests are also expected to reach multi-year highs,” the review says.
The estimate for grain consumption has been raised by 16 million tons to 2.416 billion tons. Carryover stocks at the end of the season are forecast at 634 million tons, which is almost 16 million tons higher than the previous estimate.
Global trade this season is estimated at 446 million tons, which is 4 million tons higher than the previous forecast and 5% higher on an annualized basis.
The wheat harvest forecast has risen to 842 million tons, which is 12 million tons higher than the previous estimate. In the 2024/25 season, the harvest amounted to 801 million tons. “It is expected that in the 2026/27 season, the area sown with wheat will decrease slightly, and assuming average yields in the next season, the harvest is preliminarily forecast to decline by about 2%,” the review says. “As demand has reached a new peak, a slight reduction in global stocks is expected, but aggregate stocks in major exporting countries will remain at comfortable levels.”
The corn harvest forecast for the 2025/26 season has been raised to 1.313 billion tons from the previous 1.298 billion tons. Last season, 1.238 billion tons were harvested.
The estimate for global rice production has remained virtually unchanged at 543 million tons. Taking into account a slight decline in consumption, stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season will increase by 2 million tons. Expectations for global trade volume in calendar year 2026 have declined slightly, but at 60 million tons (a 2% increase), it will still be a record high, the review notes.
Earlier, the Experts Club analytical center presented a video analysis of global grain production by leading agricultural countries in the period 1991-2024. The video is available here: https://youtube.com/shorts/2XwiBWf9GrM?si=F9-QsXbWRl2jqV8M
The rise in global oil prices, coupled with the depreciation of the hryvnia against the euro and the dollar, could lead to higher fuel prices in the retail market as early as January, said Sergey Kuyun, director of the consulting company A-95.
“The exchange rate has added one hryvnia, and global prices have added one and a half. The market is holding steady for now, but I think that if nothing changes, there will be some correction, or more precisely, a price increase as early as January,” he said during a briefing at the Media Center of Ukraine in Kyiv on Thursday.
According to the expert, the price of gasoline on the wholesale market has already risen by 2 hryvnia per liter, and the price of diesel fuel, in particular its Arctic brand, which has seen a sharp increase in demand with the onset of frost, is showing similar growth dynamics.
As reported, the increase in excise taxes on fuel from January 1, 2026, did not lead to an increase in prices at gas stations at the beginning of the year, as the decrease in the purchase cost of fuel in December due to the decline in world oil prices offset the tax increase.
In Ukraine, the third stage of the planned increase in excise taxes on motor fuel took place on January 1, 2026, in particular, on gasoline – by UAH 1.75/liter, on diesel fuel – by UAH 2.25/liter, and on autogas – by UAH 1.5/liter.
Prior to this, on September 1, 2024, and January 1, 2025, there was a two-stage increase in excise taxes on fuel, as a result of which the tax on autogas increased by 6.4 UAH/liter, on gasoline by 3 UAH/liter, and on diesel fuel by 4 UAH/liter.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 14.5 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes or 3.4%) given the increase in domestic consumption from 7.6 million tonnes to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%), the forecast for corn remained unchanged.
The global forecast for wheat for 2025/26 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. (…) Global consumption increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tonnes, mainly due to increased use in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco, according to the USDA’s December report.
The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat harvest to 23 million tonnes, with exports at 14 million tonnes (-0.5 million tonnes) and ending stocks at 1.93 million tonnes. At the same time, it is noted that domestic consumption will increase to 8.1 million tonnes (+0.5 million tonnes or 6.6%).
USDA analysts left unchanged their forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY — 29 million tonnes, exports — 23 million tonnes, ending stocks — 0.85 million tonnes.
The USDA has increased its forecast for global wheat production in 2025/26 MY to 842.17 million tonnes (+4.36 million tonnes), global exports to 219.76 million tonnes (+1.05 million tonnes), and ending stocks — 278.25 million tonnes (+3.38 million tonnes).
The USDA has raised its forecast for global corn production in 2025/26 MY to 1,296.01 million tonnes (+13 million tonnes), exports to 205.1 million tonnes (+0.01 million tonnes), and ending stocks to 290.91 million tonnes (+11.76 million tonnes).
