Consulting agency UkrAgroConsult forecasts a 5.7% decline in sunflower harvest in the 2025 season to 13.3 million tons from 14.1 million tons in the previous forecast due to drought in southern and eastern Ukraine, the agency’s press service reported.
“Crop losses are mainly observed in the southern and eastern regions, where drought has significantly affected crops. In contrast, the situation is more favorable in the northern and western regions, where rains have been regular. Sunflower yields are expected to increase during harvesting in the northwestern belt, as was the case with wheat and barley,” the agency said.
Analysts added that market estimates of the sunflower harvest range from 12.8 to 13.5 million tons. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult sticks to the upper end of the estimate due to the expansion of acreage in the west and north after the start of the war. However, seed quality is a concern due to diseases caused by rains during harvesting in these regions.
UkrAgroConsult has more optimistic forecasts for corn.
“The main growing regions have sufficient moisture levels, and crops in the south account for a small share. This year’s pollination and grain filling period coincided with more favorable temperatures compared to last year, and periodic rains contributed to crop development,” experts said.
Market estimates of the corn harvest range from 28 million tons to 35 million tons, but at the end of July, UkrAgroConsult raised its forecast by 2 million tons to 32.5 million tons, or 6.6%, which is one of the highest figures on the market.
UkrAgroConsult’s wheat harvest forecast remains stable at 22 million tons. As of August 7, almost 15 million tons had been harvested from 74% of the planted area. The remaining 26% is in regions with the highest yields, which gives grounds for optimism, the agency concluded.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has lowered its forecast for the 2025 vegetable harvest by 11.5% to 7.6 million tons, fruit and berry harvest by 11.1% to 1.8 million tons, and potato harvest by 3.4% to 19.4 million tons.
“Weather conditions in the spring of 2025 were unfavorable for harvests. Spring frosts covered a significant part of the country, causing particular damage to winter crops, fruit and berries, and vegetables,” the National Bank said in its updated Inflation Report published this week.
At the same time, compared to last year’s harvest, the National Bank estimates that this year’s vegetable harvest will be 11.5% higher, or 0.8 million tons, and potato harvest will be 10.7% higher, or 1.9 million tons.
However, the situation with fruits and berries is worse, and their harvest will be 12.4%, or 0.2 million tons, less than last year.
The National Bank also lowered its forecasts for vegetable crops in 2026 by 9.1% compared to the previous April Inflation Report, to 8.0 million tons, and for fruit and berries by 4.0%, to 1.9 million tons.
At the same time, the NBU slightly improved its expectations for next year’s potato harvest by 0.7% to 20.0 million tons.
Experts predict coffee prices to rise by up to 40% in 2025. The main reasons cited are drought in Brazil and abnormal rains in Vietnam, the largest coffee-producing countries, according to the FAO and the International Coffee Organization.
In 2024, the price of Arabica rose by 69%, reaching record levels and exceeding $4.30 per pound on the ICE exchange in early 2025. Drought in Brazil led to a 10-11% drop in harvest, causing a shortage, while in Vietnam, the harvest fell by 10-20% due to droughts and heavy rains. The International Coffee Organization warns that market stabilization should not be expected until 2026-2028.
Retail coffee prices are expected to rise by 10-20%, leading to higher prices in cafes and retail packaging. This will increase inflationary pressure, as rising coffee prices complement rising food prices. Experts note that producers will have to invest in drought-resistant varieties and new irrigation systems. There is also an increase in costs in the supply chain, including higher prices for fertilizers, logistics, and credit resources.
According to the FAO, global coffee production in 2023 amounted to about 11 million tons, of which Brazil accounted for 31%, Vietnam for 18%, and Indonesia for about 7%. Global coffee consumption is growing by about 2% annually and is estimated at 177 million bags per year.
According to open data, the leaders in per capita coffee consumption are Finland (about 12-13 kg per year), Norway (about 10 kg), Iceland (9.8 kg), Denmark (8.7 kg), the Netherlands (8.4 kg), Sweden (8.2 kg), Switzerland (7.9 kg), Belgium (6.8 kg), Luxembourg (6.5 kg), and Canada (6.5 kg).
Rising coffee prices in 2025 could pose a serious challenge for both producers and consumers, and will increase interest in sustainable production and expansion of supply in order to stabilize the market in the face of a changing climate.
The Greek residential real estate market 2025 continues to show steady growth despite global economic challenges. Demand for housing remains high among both local residents and foreign investors, which contributes to higher prices and the development of new projects.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released the April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which provides updated forecasts for wheat and corn production, consumption, trade, and stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.
Corn: world market
– Production: the forecast is increased by 0.9 million tons to 1 215.1 million tons. Increased production in the EU (+1.3 mln tonnes to 59.3 mln tonnes) due to higher harvests in Poland, Croatia, France and Germany, partially offset by lower production in Romania and Bulgaria.
– Trade: Exports are revised upward by 2.3 million tons to 188.7 million tons, mainly due to higher exports from the United States (+2.5 million tons to 64.8 million tons).
– Stocks: World ending stocks are lowered by 1.3 million tons to 287.7 million tons, reflecting a decrease in US stocks and an increase in stocks in South Korea and Pakistan.
According to the decree of President Donald Trump, the United States imposes additional duties on goods from a number of countries. The size of the tariffs varies depending on trade relations with Washington. The biggest restrictions are imposed on Cambodia, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka.
Countries with the highest duties
Cambodia – 49%
Vietnam – 46%; and
Sri Lanka – 44%
Thailand – 36%
China – 34% of the total
Bangladesh – 34%
Taiwan – 32%
Indonesia – 32%
Switzerland – 31%
South Africa – 30%
Pakistan – 29% – 29
Japan – 24% – 24
Malaysia – 24%
South Korea – 25%
European Union – 20%
Israel – 17%
Philippines – 17%
United Kingdom – 10%
Brazil – 10%
Singapore – 10%
Chile – 10% (basic rate)
Ukraine – 10% (basic tariff without additional restrictions)
The duties will come into force on April 9, 2025. In addition, the 10% basic tariff will be applied to all goods, which increases the overall rate for countries with already established duties. For example, Chinese goods will be subject to 44% (34% + 10%), and goods from the EU – 30% (20% + 10%).
Canada and Mexico are not yet subject to reciprocal tariffs.
Reasons for the introduction of duties
President Trump called these measures “mirror sanctions”, emphasizing that they are intended to compensate for unfair trade practices of other countries. According to him, the United States cannot afford to be an “economic target” and must protect its producers.
According to Bloomberg, the measures will affect the $33 trillion global market. Countries from China to Brazil are under attack, and the volume of their exports to the United States may decrease by 4% to 90%. Average tariffs may increase by 15%, which will trigger inflation in the US and increase the risk of recession.
In addition, the Trump administration continues to tighten trade measures previously introduced since 2017. In particular:
An additional 20% tax on all imports from China has been introduced.
A global 25% tariff on steel and aluminum is in effect.
A 25% duty on imports of automobiles and spare parts (effective April 3, 2025).
Expected consequences
Experts predict that under the maximum scenario, average tariffs in the US will increase to 2%, which could lead to a 4% reduction in GDP and a 2.5% increase in prices in the next two to three years.
China, the EU, and India will suffer the greatest losses, although their economies are likely to withstand the blow. Southeast Asian countries, Canada, and Mexico will experience a significant negative impact on their trade with the United States.
