Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
Last month, BETS PE held 118 trading sessions for the purchase and sale of natural gas in the medium and long-term market, as well as 4 trading sessions each day in the short-term market.
BETS formed 301 starting positions in January, February, March 2026, in the GTS and UGS. In total, about 66 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold in the medium and long-term market. In the short-term market, 7.05 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold.
In January, the quoted prices in the mid- and long-term market ranged from UAH 19,312 to UAH 22,640 excluding VAT. There was an upward trend in prices during the second half of the month. The initiators of the auctions formed starting positions mainly for sale.
Last month, deals were concluded in the “Transborder” section on the terms of delivery at a point on the border. The total volume under these agreements amounted to 100.44 thousand mbtu at prices in the range of 34.58 – 35.6 euros.
Natural gas was also sold using differentials from the TTF: 17 million cubic meters at a premium of EUR 7.69-9.62.
On the short-term market, exchange rates fluctuated daily in the range of UAH 19,300-22,296.99 excluding VAT with an upward trend. In addition to the intraday market, deals were concluded on the UEEX day-ahead market with a total volume of 1,351 thousand cubic meters.
“January confirmed the continued high activity on the natural gas market, despite price volatility. Although trading volumes decreased compared to the previous month, participants remain involved in transactions in the medium and short-term segments of the domestic market, unlike in December, when there was more activity in the trade of imported natural gas. The Ukrainian Energy Exchange continues to ensure the stable operation of the trading infrastructure, creating effective conditions for interaction between trading participants,” said UEEX CEO O. Kovalenko.
In 2025, due to changes in trade rules with the European Union, Ukraine was unable to supply EUR2 billion worth of agricultural products to foreign markets, 95% of which were not supplied to the European market, said Oleksandra Avramenko, chair of the European Integration Committee of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), at the conference “Agribusiness in Ukraine.”
The expert recalled that 2025 was a generous year for Ukraine’s cooperation with the European Union. For the first time in history, Ukraine had three trade frameworks with the EU. The first was autonomous trade measures (ATMs), i.e., unilateral references introduced by the European Union to support Ukraine. They were in effect until June 2025. The second was a transition period after the end of the ATMs, which lasted five months. The third came into effect on October 29, 2025.
“Destabilization and lack of predictability (in trade with the EU – IF-U) led to the fact that as of December 1, 2025, Ukraine had not exported EUR 2 billion worth of agricultural products, 95% of which were not exported to the European Union. In other words, products that were not exported to the EU were not exported anywhere. This is quite critical in our circumstances,” Avramenko noted.
She stressed that having a new trade regime is much better than not having one.
The expert expressed hope that during 2025, Ukrainian exporters will gain some experience in supplying products to the European market under the new rules and will have a better understanding of the new trade mechanism in 2026.
Avramenko also recalled the Cyber Measures mechanism introduced by the EU as part of the updated trade agreement, which allows any country that feels pressure from Ukrainian agricultural products to apply to the European Commission, which will conduct an investigation and, if necessary, impose restrictions on imports from Ukraine.
The expert also stressed the importance of Ukraine implementing the European Union standards set out in 20 regulations by the end of 2028.
According to Serbian Economist, Serbia and Ukraine are intensifying cooperation in agriculture, trade, and technology exchange.
The Serbian side confirmed its interest in expanding imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, especially corn, wheat, oilseeds, and semi-finished products for the food industry. At the same time, they discussed increasing supplies of Serbian goods to the Ukrainian market, including meat, dairy products, feed, and planting material.
According to the Serbian Ministry of Agriculture, Kyiv and Belgrade are considering the possibility of creating joint logistics corridors that would allow them to bypass existing transit restrictions and speed up the movement of goods between the countries. Special attention was paid to the topic of plant protection, veterinary standards, and simplifying certification procedures for producers in both countries.
The parties also noted the potential for cooperation in the development of digital agriculture and agrotechnologies. Ukraine offered Serbian companies an exchange of practices on the use of drones, remote monitoring systems, and AI analytics to optimize agricultural production. The Serbian delegation, in turn, expressed its willingness to share its experience in organic farming and agricultural raw material processing.
During the meeting, the prospects for Serbian companies’ participation in programs to restore Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure, including the modernization of grain storage, processing facilities, and logistics, were also discussed.
The negotiations are taking place against the backdrop of growing trade turnover: in recent years, the volume of bilateral trade in agricultural products has shown steady growth, and Serbia is becoming one of Ukraine’s key Balkan partners in the region.
The next meeting of the relevant ministries is expected to take place in early 2026, where the parties plan to present a roadmap for deepening cooperation in the agricultural sector.
On Thursday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan had a negative impact on Sino-Japanese economic relations.
“Prime Minister Takaichi’s erroneous remarks on Taiwan, made in public, have fundamentally undermined the foundation of China-Japan relations and seriously damaged bilateral economic and trade ties,” Western media quoted ministry spokesman He Yongqian as saying.
“If the Japanese side continues to take such actions and continues to move in the wrong direction, China will resolutely take the necessary measures, and all the consequences will fall on Japan,” she promised.
The media reminds us that China is the second most important market for Japan. In 2024, according to the UN, China purchased $125 billion worth of Japanese goods, mainly industrial equipment, semiconductors, and automobiles.
In November, Takaichi said that an emergency situation around Taiwan involving the use of force could escalate into a “situation that threatens Japan’s survival”; the Kyodo news agency explained that in such a case, Tokyo could resort to its right to collective self-defense.
However, the Chinese authorities consider the Taiwan issue to be an internal matter for China and called on Takai to retract his statements. As a result, Beijing urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan and recommended that those wishing to study in that country reconsider their decision in light of the security situation. The Kyodo news agency also reported, citing a source, that China had informed Japan of the suspension of imports of Japanese seafood
. On Thursday, US Ambassador to Japan George Glass condemned these measures by the PRC and called them “economic coercion.” After meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, he assured that the US is committed to ensuring Japan’s defense, including the Diaoyu Islands (Japanese name: Senkaku) in the East China Sea, which are controlled by Tokyo. The islands are the subject of a territorial dispute between Japan and China.
According to Kyodo, 64-year-old Takaichi is known for her “hardline views on security.” In particular, she advocates revising Article 9 of the 1947 Japanese Constitution, which renounces militarism. She is also considered a supporter of ultra-right and nationalist views.
The Taiwan issue arose in 1949 when the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed and part of the Chinese Kuomintang party settled on the island of Taiwan, naming it the Republic of China on Taiwan. Beijing insists on the “one China principle,” according to which it is impossible to recognize both the PRC and the Republic of China on Taiwan at the same time. At the same time, some states have unofficial cultural and economic offices of Taipei.
According to Serbian Economist, Montenegro will become a party to the Convention on a Common Transit Procedure and the Convention on the Simplification of Formalities in Trade in Goods from November 1, 2025, reports the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
The decision was made by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). Once the convention enters into force, Montenegrin customs authorities will be able to perform the functions of customs offices of departure and destination for international shipments under the NCTS procedure.
The State Customs Service of Ukraine emphasized that the expansion of the network of countries participating in the Convention contributes to the development of uniform digital standards and reduces customs clearance time at borders.
The Common Transit Convention and the Convention on the Simplification of Formalities in Trade in Goods are international agreements aimed at simplifying the movement of goods between countries through uniform customs procedures and the NCTS (New Computerized Transit System) electronic system.
Convention participants can file a transit declaration once for the entire route chain, which reduces administrative costs and speeds up the delivery of goods. For countries seeking integration with the EU, participation in the NCTS system opens up access to a single digital customs space and increases attractiveness for businesses, especially logistics and export-import companies.
Serbia officially acceded to the Convention on February 1, 2016. On that day, the country began practical application of the NCTS system.
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