Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria on Monday launched a joint mine-sweeping operation in the Black Sea to improve shipping safety, especially during the export of Ukrainian grain, Bloomberg reports.
The publication noted that the Istanbul-led initiative is the first major joint action by the Black Sea countries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and focuses on clearing mines drifting in certain areas of the Black Sea as a result of the war.
“Russia and Ukraine are key grain producers, and the war has jeopardized the safe passage of goods. Kyiv launched its own Black Sea export route last year after the failure of a secure corridor agreement backed by Russia, Turkey and the United Nations. It has successfully boosted exports and helped the economy grow faster than forecast, but the route remains risky,” Bloomberg writes.
Among the major maritime losses, the publication named a Russian missile attack near the key Ukrainian port of Odesa on a merchant ship, killing the captain and other crew members, as well as a ship hired by Cargill Inc. that was damaged in November by an explosion while leaving a Ukrainian port in the Black Sea.
Ukraine said in March that exports from its Black Sea ports had almost returned to pre-war levels after repeated attacks and disruptions following Russia’s full-scale invasion. However, ports around Odesa frequently face strikes from Russia that continue to interrupt operations, Bloomberg recalled.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Natalia Kalmykova and Ambassador of the Republic of Turkey to Ukraine Mustafa Levent Bilgen reached an agreement on cooperation in the field of rehabilitation of servicemen at a meeting.
“We are very grateful for the assistance provided to Ukraine by the Republic of Turkey. Now the list of such assistance has been expanded to include cooperation in the rehabilitation sector. A pilot project for the rehabilitation of military personnel has recently been launched. Its goal is to create an effective rehabilitation space with the participation of civilian and military health care facilities, social services, and local governments,” Kalmykova said.
As reported, the pilot project envisages, among other things, the creation of centers of excellence – institutions that will take the lead in rehabilitation.
Ukrainian Parliament Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk is on an official visit to Turkey on May 13-15.
According to the press service of the Ukrainian parliament’s apparatus, Stefanchuk will hold a number of bilateral meetings and negotiations in Ankara, including with the chairman of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Numan Kurtulmuş.
During the meetings will touch upon the topics of realization of the Formula of Peace of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular, the involvement of Turkey in the reconstruction process.
“The purpose of the visit is to deepen strategic cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey, to expand interparliamentary cooperation, as well as to overcome the negative consequences of Russian aggression, which threatens stability and development in the Black Sea region”, – stated in the message of the press service.
The Cabinet of Ministers proposes that the Verkhovna Rada ratify the Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and Turkey, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“Improving working conditions for Ukrainian entrepreneurs means expanding export opportunities. Today the government will approve and submit to the parliament a bill on ratification of the Free Trade Agreement between Ukraine and Turkey,” Shmyhal said at a government meeting on Tuesday.
According to the prime minister, duties on a significant number of Ukrainian goods, including 93% of industrial goods, will be canceled.
“Turkey is among our top five trading partners. Therefore, the Agreement creates new opportunities for Ukrainian business,” Shmyhal emphasized.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the Agreement provides for the abolition of import duties on about 93.4% of industrial goods and 7.6% of agricultural goods from Ukraine. After the end of the transition period of 3-7 years, Turkey will cancel import duties for another 1.5% of industrial goods and 28.5% of agricultural goods.
Ukraine, for its part, will cancel import duties on about 56% of industrial goods and 11.5% of agricultural goods.
After the expiration of the transition periods (2-5 years for industrial goods, 2-10 years for agricultural goods), Ukraine will abolish import duties for another 43.2% of industrial goods and 53.7% of agricultural goods.
In general, the Ministry of Economy added, the provisions of the Agreement cover trade in goods and services, the application of the provisions of the Pan-Euro-Med Convention to determine the origin of goods, intellectual property rights, the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures, the abolition of technical barriers to trade, e-commerce, customs cooperation, the commercial presence of enterprises, and the application of safeguard measures.
After ratification by the parliaments of the countries, the Agreement will enter into force 2 months after the last party receives confirmation of the completion of domestic procedures.
The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Turkey’s long-term foreign and local currency ratings to “B+” from “B”.
The ratings outlook is “positive,” according to a press release from S&P.
“We expect that following the municipal elections held in the country, the Turkish authorities will continue to fight inflation aggressively through tightening monetary policy and gradual fiscal consolidation,” the agency’s experts say.
S&P predicts a decline in Turkey’s current account deficit over the next two years, along with weakening inflation and slowing dollarization of the economy. At the same time, the agency’s analysts believe that the country’s inflation rate will remain double-digit until early 2028.
The Central Bank of Turkey is likely to keep the key interest rate at the current level of 50% until the end of 2024, according to S&P.
“We could upgrade Turkey’s rating again if the country’s balance of payments continues to improve, inflation slows, and domestic savings in Turkish lira increase, allowing the country to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves,” the agency said in a press release.
S&P may change the outlook on Turkey’s ratings to stable if pressure on the country’s financial stability or state budget increases, for example, if the lira’s depreciation fails to stop, or if the authorities abandon inflation control measures.
Earlier, Experts Club and Maksim Urakin released a detailed video analysis of how economic and political life is developing in Turkey, more detailed video analysis is available here – https://youtu.be/SUqOMFI5HbI?si=uEIZZOORj65VElUQ
You can subscribe to the Experts Club YouTube channel here – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Contrary to forecasts, Ukrainian corn has started to rise in price on world markets due to increased demand from China, Turkey, Egypt and the European Union, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“The expectations of the trade that with the arrival of a new corn crop from Argentina on the world market, demand and prices for Ukrainian grain would fall, did not materialize. Argentine new crop is sold at higher prices than Ukrainian corn. We can predict a rise in prices for corn from Ukraine in the coming weeks,” the analysts said.
According to them, China is actively contracting Ukrainian corn. Other importers, such as Turkey, Egypt, Italy, and Spain, have also started buying a lot of Ukrainian corn. In seaports, the conditional prices for it have risen to $142-145/ton and have been increasing for a week and a half. The supply is sinking, while demand is stable.
“It can be predicted that amid demand, prices will add $2-3 per tonne per week and reach at least $150/tonne on a CPT basis by the end of March,” the experts emphasized.
They said that in April, the main factor of corn price changes will be the information on the grain harvest in Brazil. In April, there will be more reliable information about the harvest in Brazil: the planted areas, soil moisture, and crop condition. This will affect the global market. If the drought continues in Brazil and the harvest is reduced, the price will rise. But for now, this is one of the scenarios. In case of rainfall in Brazil, the situation on the global corn market will be different.
On a DAP basis, Ukrainian corn is traded for delivery in March-April to Italy, Austria and Germany in the range of $192-197/ton, Pusk summarized.
