Oil refining capacity in Europe and the U.S. will decline over the next decade, while it will continue to grow in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, according to forecasts by S&P Global Energy experts.
Western governments are urging companies to expand refinery capacity to ensure uninterrupted supplies of critical resources during future crises, but investors are reluctant to fund new projects, which will create problems in the future—both in Europe and North America, the Financial Times reports.
This year, refineries in the U.S. and Europe are operating near full capacity as the industry struggles to cope with shortages caused by the war in the Middle East, and they are generating high profits.
According to a forecast by S&P Global Energy, European refinery capacity will decline by 20% over the next ten years through 2035, to a level slightly above 9 million barrels per day (bpd). Last year, facilities with a combined refining capacity of about 500,000 b/d were shut down in Europe, and the United Kingdom, for example, lost two of its six refineries.
S&P Global Energy also expects U.S. capacity to decline by 7% over this period, to 16.7 million bpd.
The energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East has not altered the industry’s trajectory, notes Daniel Evans, who is responsible for the oil refining market at S&P Global.
“Recent supply disruptions have forced a reassessment of the strategic importance of the refining industry in the West. But does this change the long-term fundamentals? I would say most likely not,” he noted.
Unlike in North America and Europe, companies in China, the Middle East, India, and Africa have built large, new, and highly competitive refineries.
Ukraine currently has 15 GW of electrical capacity available, including cogeneration and imports, and by the end of the year, this figure is expected to rise to 21.4 GW, provided there is no significant damage resulting from Russian attacks, First Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Denys Shmyhal said during Question Time with the government in the Verkhovna Rada on Friday.
According to him, nuclear power accounts for over 40%, thermal power plants for 25%, and hydropower for 15%.
“Six of the nine nuclear power plant units are generating electricity; three units are undergoing scheduled maintenance, and scheduled maintenance has already been completed on five units,” Shmyhal said.
The Minister of Energy noted that Ukraine continues to increase its power generation capacity, which is expected to reach 19.6 GW by November 1 and 21.4 GW by the end of the year, provided that the already restored capacity is not damaged by Russia.
“The power grid is operating stably, but everything can change depending on the intensity of Russian air attacks during the evening peak period,” Shmyhal emphasized.
CAPACITY, ENERGY, NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, POWER GENERATION, SHMYHAL
Finland is supporting the reconstruction of Ukraine’s war-torn energy sector by allocating 28.5 million euros from its development cooperation funds.
According to a press release from the Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the total cost of the power plant technology is 46.5 million euros, with Ukraine financing the remainder of the project on its own.
Wärtsilä Finland Oy was selected as the supplier. The power plants will be manufactured in Vaasa, which will also contribute to job creation, the development of expertise, and exports in Finland.
The Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrnafta is purchasing these power plants to ensure energy production in the country. Reliable energy production is of vital importance, especially during the winter months, when Russian attacks on energy infrastructure complicate daily life in Ukraine.
According to Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Ville Tavio, this project combines Finland’s support for Ukraine with the advantages of Finnish technology.
“Finland possesses world-class expertise in the energy sector, which can be of great help to Ukraine in its recovery efforts. I am pleased that Finnish technology and Finnish workers are contributing to strengthening the security of Ukraine’s energy supply. At the same time, this project promotes Finnish exports and employment,” Minister Tavio noted.
Finland’s funding for the project is provided through the Finnish-Ukrainian Investment Fund (FUIF). The FUIF’s goal is to support public investments in Ukraine using Finnish technology, expertise, and services. Finland’s financial resources will be used to cover the interest expenses and principal amount of the investment loan that Ukraine will receive. Finvera is providing a 100% export guarantee for this loan.
Azerbaijan intends to increase electricity exports to neighboring countries and enter the European energy market, said the country’s president, Ilham Aliyev.
“By expanding our export capabilities to neighboring countries, we will also enter the European market. After all, we have already entered the European market with our oil and gas, but we want to enter it with electricity as well,” Aliyev said in an interview with the Azerbaijani state television channel AzTV.
According to him, the only route for supplying electricity to Europe currently runs through Georgia and Turkey, but Azerbaijan intends to expand the number of export routes. In this regard, a feasibility study for the Black Sea Energy project has already been prepared.
In addition, in November 2024, as part of COP29, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement to lay an electrical cable along the bottom of the Caspian Sea.
“Azerbaijan will establish itself as a country that generates, receives, transmits, and exports electricity,” Aliyev said.
He also noted that the capacity of solar power plants in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic (NAR) could reach 500 MW, and up to 1 GW in the future.
“The main issue here is export capacity. To achieve this, of course, negotiations must be held with the relevant authorities in the respective countries, and these are already underway,” the president said.
At the same time, Aliyev noted that the existing power transmission lines from the NAR to Iran and Turkey have limited capacity, which needs to be increased.
“That is, for exporting 500 megawatts—or even 1,000 megawatts—of electricity, there are currently two routes: one to Turkey and the other to Iran. But in the future, this could also include Europe,” he said.
The head of state added that Azerbaijan’s plans to export electricity are in line with the interests of the countries “surrounding us.”
“It’s just that coordination efforts here must be carried out properly, at the necessary level, and negotiations must be accelerated. I can say that negotiations on this matter are currently underway with both Turkey and Iran. It’s too early to say anything for sure,” the president said.
As part of the implementation of the energy sustainability plan, distributed cogeneration facilities with a total capacity of 65 MW have already been built in Kyiv, according to Petro Panteleev, acting first deputy head of the Kyiv City State Administration.
“We have already built cogeneration plants with a capacity of 65 MW and diesel power plants with a capacity of over 16 MW,” he said at a press briefing on Monday dedicated to the progress of the Kyiv City Resilience Plan.
The level of readiness for infrastructure restoration, Panteleev added, has already reached 60%. In addition, the city is working to prepare its housing stock for the heating season.
According to the city official, Kyiv has allocated 800 million hryvnias over the course of the year for the repair and modernization of electrical switchboards. Work is planned this year at 742 facilities; so far, 20% of the plan has been completed.
As Panteleev noted, energy efficiency measures have already been implemented in over 2,000 residential buildings through municipal and state programs.
It was previously reported that the capital’s Resilience Plan allocates 37 billion hryvnias for the restoration and construction of facilities and infrastructure.
The European Union has transferred an additional 30 million euros to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund, thereby increasing its total contribution to the fund to 279 million euros, according to Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal.
“The funds received through this financial instrument are helping us restore energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, purchase urgently needed equipment for our energy companies, and ensure a reliable energy supply, first and foremost for critical infrastructure,” – Shmyhal was quoted as saying by the Ministry of Energy’s press service on its Telegram channel on Saturday.
