The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed will reduce the profitability of these crops, leading to a 30% reduction in soybean acreage in 2026, experts from the American Chamber of Commerce (ACC) reported during a press briefing in Kyiv.
“Our forecasts indicate a possible 30% reduction in soybean acreage compared to the previous season. The export duty acts as an economic barrier, making the cultivation of this crop less attractive to producers. Farmers won’t take losses every year—if the financial result is negative, they’ll simply change their crop mix,” the experts explained.
The business association noted that under normal conditions, corn could be an alternative, but currently its investment appeal is also in question due to rising production costs.
“Prices for fuel and fertilizers have risen significantly, particularly due to the escalation of the situation surrounding Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This significantly increases farmers’ costs for growing corn, which, combined with the low profitability of oilseeds due to tariffs (on soybeans and rapeseed – IF-U), puts farmers in a difficult position ahead of the spring planting season,” the briefing participants emphasized.
Experts expressed confidence that if regulatory policy does not change, there is a risk that farmers will abandon rapeseed and soybean cultivation in the long term. This will lead to domestic processors, who lobbied for the introduction of tariffs to obtain cheap raw materials, eventually facing a physical shortage of those materials due to reduced production.
As reported, pursuant to Law No. 4536-IX of July 16, 2025, a 10% export duty on rapeseed and soybeans was introduced in Ukraine effective September 4, 2025. The document provides for a gradual reduction of the rate by 1% annually, starting January 1, 2030, to 5% by 2035. At the same time, the law includes a preferential regime for direct producers and cooperatives, who are exempt from paying the duty when exporting their own-grown products.
Ukraine’s grain market is entering the 2026–2027 marketing year (MY, July–June) under significant pressure due to accumulated stocks and intensifying global competition, according to the information and analytical agency “UkrAgroConsult.”
“The key factor remains the accumulation of carryover stocks, which could reach about 10.7 million tons, putting pressure on prices,” analysts noted.
According to their forecasts, gross grain production in Ukraine in the 2026 season is expected to reach about 60.3 million tons, with about 51 million tons to be exported to foreign markets.
UkrAgroConsult identified the growing role of logistics, costs, and global competition as the main trends of the season. According to analysts’ estimates, export dynamics will be shaped by the need to unload the market, and the market itself will shift to a buyer’s market.
Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY) are projected at 4.1 million tons. This is 14% less than the previous season’s figure, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) reported on Facebook.
According to analysts, the main reason for the decline was a reduction in raw material volumes. Specifically, in the current season, the total area planted with sunflowers was 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous MY. Difficult weather conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, led to a decrease in yield to 2.0 t/ha.
“As a result, the seed harvest is expected to reach 10.1 million tons. This is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years,” experts predict.
Due to the smaller harvest, UCAB estimates processing volumes at 10.1 million tons, meaning oil production will drop by 13.1% to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the domestic market will consume only about 240,000 tons of the product.
“Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population migration, and military operations. Therefore, the vast majority of the product will be exported,” explained UCAB, noting that in 2025, sunflower oil alone generated the highest foreign exchange revenue among the entire agricultural sector.
The association expressed confidence that despite the negative production trends, Ukrainian sunflower oil retains its position as a key export commodity in the EU, Middle East, and Asian markets.
Barley exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are forecast at 2.8 million tons, which is 22% higher than the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
The association’s analysts noted that barley production has remained relatively stable during the years of war, although it has declined significantly compared to the pre-war period. In 2025/26 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.3 million tons of this crop, which is 0.4% more than in the previous marketing year, but 19.7% less than the average for the last five years.
Among the key trends of the season, experts highlighted the largest reduction in barley acreage among all grains due to the temporary occupation of territories and low export potential. The area under cultivation was 1.4 million hectares, which is 0.9% less than in the previous marketing year and 26.4% below the five-year average. At the same time, barley was the only grain crop to show an increase in yield to 3.9 tons/ha, which was 8.4% higher than the average for the last five years.
Experts emphasized that increased production and high carryover stocks allowed for increased shipments to foreign markets after a decline in the 2024/2025 season. At the same time, Ukraine continues to experience a prolonged decline in domestic barley consumption, which is estimated at 2.8 million tons in the current marketing year. Of this volume, 1.9 million tons are used for feed, and 0.2 million tons are used for food.
“Despite the largest reduction in acreage among all grains, barley managed to maintain production volumes thanks to increased yields. The decline in domestic consumption and the availability of carryover stocks will allow Ukraine to increase exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year, meeting the demand of countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East,” the UACB concluded.
Purchase prices for live pigs in Ukraine in the period from March 2 to March 8, 2026, are forecast to be 70–71 UAH/kg, according to the analytical department of the Meat Industry Association.
The industry association noted that pork prices in Europe have fallen to their lowest level since 2022. This factor, combined with the unpredictable situation regarding African swine fever (ASF), will begin to affect the Ukrainian market in March this year.
“Given the interconnectedness of markets, European price dynamics will remain an important benchmark for the domestic sector,” analysts emphasized.
According to the association, on the German VEZG exchange, the price of half-carcasses of standard pigs for the next week is set at EUR 1.55/kg (79.27 UAH/kg), and sows — EUR 0.78/kg (39.89 UAH/kg) excluding VAT. On the Polish exchange CennikRolnicze, the average price for live pigs is PLN 4.86/kg (UAH 58.9/kg) with a range of PLN 4.00-5.70/kg.
Experts emphasized that systematic control of ASF through vaccination and biosecurity should be the basis for market stabilization in these conditions.
Ukraine will export 23.8 million tons of corn in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), which is 8.3% more than in the previous MY, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
According to the association, production volumes are gradually recovering after the occupation of part of the territory: the harvest will reach 29.9 million tons (+11.2% compared to last year), although this is 6.8% less than the average for the last five years.
Analysts explained the improvement in gross harvest by an 11.6% increase in acreage to 4.5 million hectares. At the same time, due to heavy autumn rains, the harvest was delayed, and the average yield was 6.6 t/ha, which is 0.3% less than in the previous marketing year.
The UAC noted that in the 2024/25 marketing year, corn exports decreased by 25.6% (to 22.0 million tons) due to lower production and a decrease in carryover stocks from 6.4 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Experts estimated total domestic consumption in 2025/26 MY at 6.2 million tons, of which 5.2 million tons will be used for feed, 182 thousand tons for seeds, and 418 thousand tons for non-food processing.
“The Ukrainian corn market remains flexible. Despite the loss of land due to temporary occupation and difficult weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase acreage and gross harvest. The crop meets domestic demand for animal feed and is returning to export growth, remaining one of the mainstays of Ukrainian exports,” the UCAAB concluded.
