Business news from Ukraine

NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE IMPROVES NATIONAL CURRENCY RATE FORECAST FOR 2020

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its hryvnia exchange rate forecast for 2020 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank did, Ukrainian Finance Minister Oksana Markarova has said, without specifying the concrete figure. In all forecasts and in forecasts of the National Bank, the exchange rate for the next year is strengthened, that is, the rate on which the budget was based (UAH 28.20/$1). Obviously, it will not be like that anymore, the finance minister said in an interview with the Voice of America in Washington.
She added that soon the Finance Ministry and the government will receive an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture, on the basis of which changes will be made to the draft national budget for 2020.
The forecasts of all the organizations, the National Bank say that the rate is strengthening and this is a long-term trend. Therefore, there will be fluctuations, but we should expect that this strengthening is not some small fluctuation of this year, but this is a new normality, Markarova said.
As reported, since the beginning of 2019, the hryvnia exchange rate has strengthened by 10.3%, to UAH 24.835244/$1.
The National Bank of Ukraine does not officially announce its exchange rate forecasts, at the same time, it sends them to the government for drawing up the draft national budget.

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NBU SAYS UKRAINE COULD ISSUE $1 BLN EUROBONDS

The updated macro-forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes receiving $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility, as well as the issue of eurobonds worth $1 billion, deputy governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We expect that in the fourth quarter the new program is likely to start with the IMF, and Ukraine will receive $2 billion. And we also expect $2 billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” he said.
Sologub stressed that such an assessment is an expert commentary. According to him, if the funds arrive a little earlier or a little later, it will not have a significant impact on other macroeconomic parameters, except for international reserves.
The banker also estimated, based on the example of other countries and the size of Ukraine’s quota in the IMF, that the size of the new program could be in the range of $5-10 billion for a period of 36 to 48 months.
“We have no insight, this is our expert assessment,” he said.
Sologub also said that the National Bank laid down in its forecast another entry of Ukraine to foreign markets with eurobonds in the amount of about $1 billion as its expert assessment.

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NBU FORESEES $2 BLN FROM IMF IN Q4, 2019 UNDER NEW PROGRAM

The updated macro-forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes receiving $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility, deputy governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We expect that in the fourth quarter the new program is likely to start with the IMF, and Ukraine will receive $2 billion. And we also expect $2 billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” he said.
Sologub stressed that such an assessment is an expert commentary. According to him, if the funds arrive a little earlier or a little later, it will not have a significant impact on other macroeconomic parameters, except for international reserves.
The banker also estimated, based on the example of other countries and the size of Ukraine’s quota in the IMF, that the size of the new program could be in the range of $5-10 billion for a period of 36 to 48 months.
“We have no insight, this is our expert assessment,” he said.
Sologub also said that the National Bank laid down in its forecast another entry of Ukraine to foreign markets with eurobonds in the amount of about $1 billion as its expert assessment.

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NBU RAISES PURCHASE OF CURRENCY ON INTERBANK MARKET TO $44 MLN IN LAST WEEK OF JUNE

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the period from June 24 to June 27 bought $44 million in the interbank foreign exchange market, which is 8.6% more than a week earlier ($40.5 million).
According to the website of the central bank, $20 million was acquired at the best purchase and sale price (using the matching instrument), $24 million at a single rate (using the matching instrument).
In June, the National Bank bought $322.3 million compared with $203.6 million in May and $299.9 million in April.
In general, since the beginning of this year, the NBU bought $1.639 billion in the interbank market and sold $231.43 million.

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NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE INCREASES NUMBER OF SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT BANKS TO 14

The National Bank of Ukraine in accordance with the updated methodology has increased the number of systemically important banks to 14, whereas since 2016 their number remained unchanged at three, including state-owned PrivatBank, Oschadbank and Ukreximbank, the regulator has said.
The expanded list of such banks also includes state-owned Ukrgasbank and private Alfa-Bank with the merging Ukrsotsbank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, FUIB, UkrSibbank, TAScombank and Universal Bank controlled by Sergiy Tigipko, Kredobank, OTP Bank and Bank Pivdenny.
The National Bank noted that systemically important banks are the banks whose bankruptcy or improper functioning can lead to systemic risks, while obtaining this status imposes an additional burden on the banks as they must fulfill certain increased requirements to ensure their safety margin.
In particular, the National Bank of Ukraine established special values of quick liquidity ratio for such banks from January 1, 2020: at least 30% of current liabilities (for other banks 20%) and the maximum credit risk per counterparty at no more than 20% of regulatory capital (for other banks 25%).

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NATIONAL BANK OF UKRAINE CUTS FOREX PURCHASES ON INTERBANK MARKET

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only purchased foreign currency on the interbank foreign exchange market during the period from June 18 until June 21, 2019 and replenished its forex reserves by $40.5 million as compared with $135.1 million last week. Some $40.5 million was acquired at the best purchase and sale price (using the matching tool), the NBU said on its website.
In total, since the beginning of this year, the NBU has bought $1.595 billion on the interbank market, including $278.3 million in June, and sold $231.43 million there (the central bank did not sell foreign currency in June).

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