According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the last week of February with a moderate decline: Bitcoin fell to $65,900 on February 28 from $68,000 on February 22, corresponding to a drop of approximately 3%.
During the week, BTC fell to around $64,100 on February 25, then rebounded to $67,900 on February 26, after which it fell below $66,000 again. Ethereum fell by about 2% (to $1,930) over the same period, and Solana fell by about 4% (to $82).
According to CoinMarketCap, at the end of the week, the total capitalization of the crypto market was about $2.25 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance at about 58% and 24-hour turnover at about $93-96 billion.
Possible scenarios: baseline — consolidation in the $64-68 thousand range with neutral news background; positive — return to attempts to test $68-70 thousand with improved risk appetite; negative – a decline below $64,000 with an acceleration of the sell-off amid heightened geopolitical risks and pressure from global markets.
Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
Ukraine will export 23.8 million tons of corn in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June), which is 8.3% more than in the previous MY, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
According to the association, production volumes are gradually recovering after the occupation of part of the territory: the harvest will reach 29.9 million tons (+11.2% compared to last year), although this is 6.8% less than the average for the last five years.
Analysts explained the improvement in gross harvest by an 11.6% increase in acreage to 4.5 million hectares. At the same time, due to heavy autumn rains, the harvest was delayed, and the average yield was 6.6 t/ha, which is 0.3% less than in the previous marketing year.
The UAC noted that in the 2024/25 marketing year, corn exports decreased by 25.6% (to 22.0 million tons) due to lower production and a decrease in carryover stocks from 6.4 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Experts estimated total domestic consumption in 2025/26 MY at 6.2 million tons, of which 5.2 million tons will be used for feed, 182 thousand tons for seeds, and 418 thousand tons for non-food processing.
“The Ukrainian corn market remains flexible. Despite the loss of land due to temporary occupation and difficult weather conditions, farmers are managing to increase acreage and gross harvest. The crop meets domestic demand for animal feed and is returning to export growth, remaining one of the mainstays of Ukrainian exports,” the UCAAB concluded.
Dynamics of export of goods in January-September 2025 by most important items in relation to same period of 2024, %
Astarta, Ukraine’s largest sugar producer, supplied over 870,000 tons of agricultural products to foreign markets in 2025, the company reported on its website.
According to the report, exports of soybean products (oil and meal) increased by 15% compared to 2024. The main markets in this segment were Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Austria. In addition, the company exported sugar to 25 countries, mainly to the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) and Europe.
In 2025, wheat and corn were supplied to EU countries (Italy, the Netherlands, Spain), the United Kingdom, as well as Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Vietnam.
“Global trade uncertainty requires new approaches. We continue to export and adapt our work through interaction within our partner ecosystem,” said Vyacheslav Chuk, Director of Commercial Operations and Strategic Marketing at Astarta.
Astarta is a vertically integrated agro-industrial holding operating in eight regions of Ukraine. It includes six sugar factories, agricultural enterprises with a land bank of 220,000 hectares and dairy farms with 22,000 head of cattle, an oil extraction plant in Hlobyn (Poltava region), seven elevators, and a biogas complex.
According to the results of 2025, Astarta reduced its total revenue from sales of key product categories by 15.6% compared to 2024, to UAH 21.05 billion, while physical sales volumes of its main products fell by 23.5%, to 1.21 million tons.
Kernel, one of Ukraine’s largest agricultural holdings, reported EBITDA of $103 million in October-December 2026 fiscal year (FY, July 2025-June 2026), down 13% from the same period last year, according to a report on Friday.
According to the report, consolidated revenue in the second quarter of FY 2026 amounted to $1 billion 98 million, which is 4% less than in the second quarter of FY 2025, but compared to the previous quarter, revenue grew by 33% thanks to an increase in sales of grain, vegetable oils, and meal as the harvest campaign gained momentum and export activity accelerated.
Kernel noted that the loss from changes in the fair value of biological assets in the second quarter of FY 2026 amounted to $43 million, compared to $33 million in the second quarter of FY 2025.
The cost of goods sold increased by 28% compared to the previous quarter, mainly reflecting higher costs of goods for resale and raw materials used, as well as a 55% increase in delivery and handling costs due to higher insurance premiums amid increased Russian attacks on civilian vessels during the reporting period.
As a result, gross profit decreased by 20% year-on-year to $126 million, reflecting lower profitability in the infrastructure, trading, and oilseed processing segments.
At the same time, Kernel managed to reduce general and administrative expenses by 26% to $55 million, reflecting a decrease in payroll-related expenses.
The company’s net profit for October-December 2025 amounted to $13 million, which is 2.3 times less than in October-December 2025. It is noted that the group incurred financial expenses of $21 million, which is 21% more than in the previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in expenses related to the extension and modification of lease agreements, while other expenses in the second quarter of FY 2026 reached $20 million, mainly due to an increase in the Group’s social expenses.
It is noted that Kernel received an operating profit before working capital changes of $113 million in the second quarter of FY 2026, which is 2.3 times more than in the previous year. The strong growth mainly reflects a low comparative base, as the previous year’s result was significantly affected by non-cash trading gains recognized by Avere.
According to the report, changes in working capital resulted in a cash outflow of $249 million in the second quarter of FY 2026, to $331 million, primarily due to an increase in inventories of $209 million, to $644 million, as well as the temporary allocation of a portion of liquidity to liquid securities.
“This reflects a normalization of seasonal purchasing patterns as the company resumed its typical inventory build following the harvest in the first half of the fiscal year. The previous season was atypical due to slower sales by farmers and a smaller grain harvest, which limited inventory accumulation and distorted the normal working capital cycle,” the document says.
It is specified that stocks related to the oilseed processing segment increased by 23% compared to the previous quarter, to $348 million, thanks to growth in sunflower seed and vegetable oil stocks. Grain stocks grew more sharply, 2.3 times compared to the previous quarter, to $296 million, as the group accumulated corn and other grains during the peak harvest season.
In physical terms, edible oil volumes by weight increased by 8% compared to the previous quarter, to 106,000 tons, while sunflower seed stocks reached 334,000 tons. Grain stocks, mainly corn, wheat, and soybeans, increased 2.6 times compared to the previous quarter, to 1.6 million tons.
Net cash flow used in investing activities amounted to $145 million during October-December 2025: the outflow consisted mainly of $120 million invested in financial assets as part of the group’s liquidity management strategy and $25 million in capital expenditures, mainly related to the reconstruction of the transshipment terminal in Chornomorsk, agricultural equipment, backup power equipment, and grain railcars.
As of the end of 2025, Kernel’s total debt amounted to $782 million, up 8% from the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to more active use of credit lines to finance seasonal working capital requirements.
Net debt increased 3.4 times compared to the previous quarter to $451 million, while the leverage ratio as of December 31, 2025, decreased to 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA.
Overall, in the first half of FY 2026, consolidated revenue decreased by 1% compared to the same period in FY 2025, to $1 billion 924 million, EBITDA decreased by 14%, to $247 million, and net profit decreased by 33%, to $119 million.
