According to experts.news, a new heat wave is sweeping across the Balkans and a significant portion of the Danube basin. From July 31 to August 6, temperatures in several countries in the region will reach 35–40 degrees, which will exacerbate the drought and worsen conditions on the Danube, where water levels have already dropped to long-term lows and, in some places, record lows.
The highest temperatures are forecast for Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Hungary. In Belgrade, Novi Sad, Zagreb, Podgorica, Tirana, Skopje, and Budapest, temperatures are expected to reach 37–40 degrees. In Sarajevo, temperatures will reach 35–37 degrees.
In Bulgaria and Romania, the heat will initially be less intense, but by August 4–5, temperatures in Bucharest are expected to reach 36–37 degrees. In Moldova, temperatures will rise from 30 degrees on July 30 to 37 degrees on August 4–5. In the Odesa region and the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta, temperatures are expected to range from 27–32 degrees, but nighttime temperatures in early August may reach 24 degrees.
The situation in the upper part of the basin also remains challenging. In Vienna, temperatures are forecast to reach up to 39 degrees on July 31, and up to 38–39 degrees on August 3–4. In Budapest, temperatures from July 31 through August 5 will mostly range from 38–40 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms in Austria may cause a temporary rise in water levels, but the prolonged heat wave will prevent the accumulated precipitation deficit from being quickly offset.
On the Danube, Sava, and Tisa rivers in Serbia, water levels are below the low navigational marks. In Croatia and Serbia, shallowing has already led to the formation of large sandbars, small vessels running aground, and old sunken ships resurfacing, posing an additional danger to navigation.
Due to insufficient depth, barges and tankers are utilizing only 30–40% of their carrying capacity in certain sections. In July, Serbia received only about 25% of its planned volume of imported fuel via the Danube. Production at Serbia’s largest hydroelectric power plant, “Džerdap-1,” has fallen to about one-third of its usual level.
In Romania, the inflow of water into the Danube has dropped to approximately 1,650 cubic meters per second, compared to an average July figure of about 4,750 cubic meters. Low water levels have led to the shutdown of both power units at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant, which uses water from the Danube for cooling. In Hungary, restrictions have affected the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
In the Bulgarian-Romanian section, navigation has been restricted near the islands of Belene, Vardim, and Batyn. Vessels are forced to wait for passage clearance and reduce their cargo loads. At the end of July, a passenger motor ship also ran aground on the Danube, despite the restrictions on draft that were in effect.
Analysis of the Impacts on the Ten Danube Countries
In Germany and Austria, low outflow from the upper reaches means a reduction in the volume of water flowing downstream. Short-term downpours may cause localized rises in water levels, but sustained rainfall throughout the upper and middle basins is necessary for a stable recovery.
For Slovakia and Hungary, the main risks are related to restrictions on barge loading, a decline in river tourism, disruptions in the supply of fuel and raw materials, and strain on energy infrastructure. In Budapest, the Danube’s water level fell below previous lows, and tourist cruises on certain routes were suspended.
Croatia and Serbia are already feeling the direct impact of low water levels on the transport of fuel, industrial raw materials, and agricultural cargo, as well as on port operations. Sandbars and sunken vessels that have risen closer to the surface pose an additional hazard.
For Bulgaria and Romania, low water levels mean reduced vessel draft, queues at narrow sections, suspended ferry crossings, rising grain transportation costs, and risks to the energy sector. Romania is a key link in the route between Ukrainian Danube ports and Constanța, so delays are spreading throughout the entire Lower Danube corridor.
Moldova has a short outlet to the Danube via the port of Giurgiulești. It is located on the river’s maritime section and has greater depth than many inland ports, making it less directly vulnerable to the shallowing of the middle Danube. However, Moldovan cargo depends on the stable operation of the lower reaches of the river, the Romanian canals, and access to the Black Sea. Delays and rising freight rates on this route could increase the cost of the country’s imports and exports.
For Ukraine, the lower Danube is particularly important due to the operations of the ports of Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaysk. Critically low water levels are already limiting the normal loading of barges and delaying the fulfillment of contracts. As of July 20, the cost of transportation from Reni and Izmail to Constanta has risen to approximately $28 per metric ton, and some vessels are losing 30–60% of their cargo capacity.
The continued heat through August 6 will intensify evaporation and maintain pressure on the Danube’s water regime. Even with local rains, any improvement will most likely be temporary, as the water shortage is affecting the entire basin—from Germany and Austria to Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
For shippers, the most likely consequences will be a further reduction in barge loading capacity, the use of more vessels to transport the same volume, rising freight rates, delays in the delivery of fuel, grain, and industrial raw materials, as well as the partial rerouting of cargo to rail and road transport.
A significant improvement in the situation is possible only after a prolonged period of rainfall in the Alps, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and other parts of the basin.
GERMANY, HEAT, low water levels in the Danube, TRANSPORTATION, UKRAINE
During the first five months of 2026, Ukrainian companies were fined over 7 million UAH for failing to submit or for late submission of transportation data to the Territorial Mobilization and Social Support Centers.
According to OpenDataBot, which cites information from the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ Land Forces Command, 263 penalty orders were issued between January and May. The total amount of fines imposed was 7.057 million UAH.
Of this amount, 6.652 million hryvnias—or 94%—have already been paid voluntarily by the companies or collected by force into the budget.
In total, since 2014, 1,047 Ukrainian companies have received rulings for failing to submit information on their vehicles. Notably, 87% of all sanctions were imposed after the start of the full-scale war.
The rulings are issued against company officials responsible for submitting the information. These may include directors, accountants, or other employees entrusted with these duties.
Companies are required to report twice a year to the TCC and the SP on the availability and technical condition of their vehicles and equipment.
Original source: OpenDataBot – “7 million UAH in fines imposed on businesses this year for failing to submit information on vehicles to the TCC”, published on July 29, 2026.
From July 13 to 19, JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” (UZ) transported 647,100 passengers, and the most popular train last week was the Kyiv–Przemyśl route, which carried 13,800 people, according to a company announcement on its Telegram channel.
According to the published data, the average number of passengers per car during the reporting period was 378.
Meanwhile, the number of passengers in children’s groups that week totaled 21,600.
“The most popular destination is the Carpathians. The vast majority of children traveled to Tatariv, Vorokhta, and Yasinya. Ensuring seats for organized groups of children is a priority, so when tickets are issued for these trips, they are the first to receive them,” Ukrzaliznytsia emphasized.
It is noted that the number of military personnel transported via the special reserve from July 13 to 19 was 3,600.
According to data provided by Ukrzaliznytsia, from July 13 to 19, the highest demand was observed on the Kyiv–Lviv route, where 173,200 requests were recorded and 32,700 passengers were transported.
On the Kyiv–Odesa route, the figures were 107,900 and 23,500 passengers, respectively; on the Kyiv–Przemyśl route, 76,600 and 14,700; on the Kyiv–Kharkiv route, 66,900, with 20,200 passengers transported; and on the Kyiv–Dnipro route—57,100 and 15,600, respectively
Ukrzaliznytsia clarified that there were five passengers vying for each seat on the Kyiv–Lviv, Kyiv–Odesa, and Kyiv–Przemyśl routes; four on the Kyiv–Dnipro route; and three on the Kyiv–Kharkiv route.
Among other things, the company evacuated 243 people from the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions that week and operated trains for representatives of 15 diplomatic delegations.
In early June, Ukrzaliznytsia told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency that this year’s summer passenger travel season would be more challenging than last year’s due to rising demand and a reduction in the number of railcars.
Ukrzaliznytsia’s international passenger traffic has increased 50–60-fold since the start of Russian aggression and the closure of Ukrainian airspace, and is generating significant profits, according to Ukrzaliznytsia CEO Oleksandr Pertsovskyi.
“This is a profitable segment; pricing is fairly flexible there and is determined by bilateral agreements. We expect to generate up to 5 billion hryvnias in revenue and somewhere around 2 billion hryvnias in profit in this segment,” he said on the “What’s Up with the Economy” podcast produced by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES).
At the same time, Pertsovskyi noted that this result was achieved by repairing a “huge number” of RIC railcars and reaching agreements with all the railways of neighboring countries.
“From an economic standpoint, everything is fine here; the key task is to scale up these operations. We really wanted to launch a train to Bulgaria—another popular route—but politics got in the way because governments changed in Romania and in Bulgaria itself, so there are some complications,” added the chairman of the board of Ukrzaliznytsia.
According to him, they have not yet managed to convince Poland to allow wider Ukrainian railcars to run on European-gauge tracks, even though a pilot run demonstrated that this is possible and such railcars regularly run on European-gauge tracks toward Budapest.
Among the latest successful projects, he cited the transition of the train to Chisinau to a daily schedule instead of every other day, as well as the synchronization of service with Germany.
Regarding domestic long-distance trains, Pertsovskyi emphasized that the government’s introduction this year of an experimental Public Service Obligation (PSO) compensation model—which covers part of the company’s costs for such services—allowed this segment to break even for the first time.
However, the head of Ukrzaliznytsia clarified that there is still a need for capital expenditures to purchase new passenger cars, since renewing the fleet of 1,600 cars with an average cost of $1.5 million would require over $2 billion; therefore, it is positive that the state budget has allocated funds for the purchase of such cars starting in 2021.
As for the “Intercity” trains, according to Pertsovskyi, one was lost due to an enemy attack, and another due to a traffic accident.
“We are currently working on a more systematic, long-term solution for their repair. It’s not cheap, and since the trains aren’t new, manufacturers aren’t really prepared for this, but at the same time, we’re turning them into ‘transformers’: using fewer cars but getting them back into service,” said the chairman of the board.
Finally, he emphasized, the most unprofitable and problematic segment of passenger transportation remains—commuter rail.
“There is no solution here yet, because it’s stuck between the state budget and local budgets, but there is a willingness and unity within the government—and on our part—to pass a law this year on state procurement, the so-called public PSO, including for commuter (transportation). We would greatly appreciate your support and advocacy; this will make it possible to balance this segment as well, and then we will be in a stable economic situation,” Pertsovskyi concluded.
In 2025, Ukrzaliznytsia reduced its revenue from sales to external customers by 12.4% compared to 2024—to 91.24 billion—and increased its operating loss by 5.5 times—to 17.03 billion hryvnias.
Revenue from intercity passenger transportation on domestic and international routes increased by 11.8%—to 11.94 billion hryvnias—while the loss from these services rose by 9.1%, to 9.62 billion hryvnias.
Suburban transportation generated only 0.51 billion UAH in revenue and 9.996 billion UAH in losses for the company, which is 2.8% less and 7% more, respectively, than in 2024.
Finally, freight transportation declined by 17.1% to 67.87 billion UAH, while profit from this segment fell 3.5-fold to 5.82 billion UAH.
In Ukraine, a requirement takes effect on July 1 stipulating that all freight vehicles registered for the first time for international transport must be equipped with second-generation smart tachographs (G2v2).
According to a statement from the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development, this requirement is part of Ukraine’s obligations under the Agreement on the Liberalization of Freight Transport with the EU.
“We are consistently harmonizing our legislation with EU standards so that Ukrainian companies can operate under the same rules as their European counterparts,” Deputy Minister of Community and Territorial Development Serhiy Derkach is quoted as saying in the press release.
The ministry explained that second-generation smart tachographs will automatically record drivers’ work and rest periods, as well as determine the vehicle’s location.
However, the ministry emphasized that this requirement applies only to trucks that are registered in Ukraine for the first time on or after July 1, 2026, for the purpose of international transport.
It is noted that there are currently over 100 centers operating in Ukraine that issue and service cards for smart tachographs. As a result, more than 29,000 such cards have already been issued.
Training is also underway for inspectors of the State Service of Ukraine for Transport Safety on how to use the new devices, which will enable them to effectively inspect both Ukrainian and foreign vehicles, the press release added.
EU, Ministry of Development, tachograph, TRANSPORTATION, TRUCK
Freight volume in January–May 2026 increased by 4.1% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching 133.8 million metric tons, while passenger traffic decreased by 5.6% to 849.3 million passengers, according to a report by the State Statistics Service.
According to its data, 61.3 million metric tons of freight were transported by rail during the first five months of 2026, which is 3.3% less than during the same period last year, while freight turnover fell by 13.8% to 36.1 billion ton-kilometers.
Road freight transport in January–May of this year increased by 22.1% to 59.6 million metric tons, while freight turnover rose by 10.9% to 17.8 billion metric ton-kilometers.
The largest number of passengers in January–May 2026 was carried by road transport—398.4 million, which is 3.7% more than during the same period in 2025.
A 3.2% increase was also recorded for the metro—138.9 million.
At the same time, the number of passengers carried by rail decreased by 15.1% compared to the same period last year—to 21.6 million; by trams—by 23.1%—to 98.5 million; and by trolleybuses—by 15.6%—to 191.6 million.
As previously reported, the volume of freight transported in January–April 2026 increased by 5% compared to the same period in 2025, reaching 104.4 million metric tons, while passenger traffic decreased by 7% to 658.8 million people.
FREIGHT, PASSENGER, State Statistics Service, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORTATION
