Ukraine can expect only about a third of the citizens who left the country due to the war to return, and risks facing a second wave of migration after the ban on men leaving the country is lifted.
This forecast was announced by Ella Libanova, director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Issues at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, during her speech at the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) “People. Business. Economy. What’s Next?” in Kyiv on Monday.
According to her, in 2022, demographers estimated the potential return rate at 50%; however, as the war drags on, this figure has been steadily declining due to Ukrainians adapting to life abroad and the destruction within the country.
“If we look at the percentage of our women aged 20 to 64, 70% of them are employed. This is an absolutely incredible figure for the first wave of migrants. Therefore, if a woman is already working there, her child is attending school or university, and they have mastered the language, there are challenges with returning,” Libanova emphasized.
She also expressed concern about the risk of men migrating after the ban on leaving Ukraine is lifted, noting that the civilian sector may be unable to offer demobilized frontline soldiers a level of income comparable to military pay, which would prompt them to join their families who have already settled abroad.
Libanova clarified that as of July 1, 2026, there were 28.5 million people in territories controlled by Ukraine. According to Eurostat data and demographers’ estimates, as of June 30, 4.4 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in European Union countries, with at least another 1.6 million outside the EU (primarily in Canada and the United Kingdom). At the same time, the exodus of predominantly young people has exacerbated the aging of the population within the country, as one-third of migrants are children and adolescents under 18, and only 6% are people aged 65 and older.
Members of Parliament began the first reading of Bill No. 16000 on the State Budget of Ukraine for the coming year.
“We have received 5,236 amendments from you to the draft state budget for 2027. This is a record for the past 24 years, but that has not prevented us from carefully reviewing all of your proposals. According to preliminary estimates, incorporating the submitted amendments would require an additional 13.5 trillion hryvnias in total. That is nearly two budgets for next year,” said Roksolana Pidlasa (Servant of the People faction), chair of the Budget Committee, at a plenary session of the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday.
According to her, many proposals for the draft budget do not meet procedural requirements because they are unbalanced or the proposed funding sources are not supported by calculations and are not realistic.
Pidlasa also reported that the working group and the Budget Committee proposed incorporating 90 budget proposals across all areas of life—from defense to social policy.
The Ministry of Economy and Environment has begun developing Ukraine’s industrial strategy through 2030 and plans to present a draft for discussion with the professional community over the course of three months, Deputy Minister Vitaliy Kindrativ said.
According to him, the Federation of Employers of Ukraine (FEU), the Institute of Economic Modeling, relevant industry associations, and experts are involved in drafting the document.
“Our priority today is, on the one hand, to support the domestic manufacturing industry and, on the other, to help it enter foreign markets,” the deputy minister emphasized during the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) on the topic “People. Business. Economy. What’s Next?” on Monday in Kyiv, according to an Interfax-Ukraine correspondent.
Kindratov noted that the strategy will focus on sectors with high added value and the potential to enter foreign markets, particularly in machine building, the manufacturing industry, and agricultural processing.
He emphasized that once work on the document is completed, it will be discussed with relevant business associations, whose position will form the basis for its final approval by the government. Furthermore, in his view, a clear definition of priority sectors and government support programs will serve as an important signal for attracting foreign investment and capital into the Ukrainian economy.
For his part, Ruslan Illichev, CEO of the Federation of Ukrainian Industries (FUI), emphasized that the document must be based on the real needs of domestic businesses.
“This strategy must be based, first and foremost, on the perspectives of the industries operating in Ukraine. We need to take our most competitive existing industries and ask what they need to scale up,” the FRU head stressed.
Ilychev added that key components of the document should also include ensuring maximum localization in large government and infrastructure projects and coordinating overall industrial policy with European partners to integrate Ukraine into EU markets.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has published a resolution updating the arrangements for reserving persons liable for military service during mobilization and martial law.
In particular, according to Resolution No. 1328 of October 23, central executive authorities, other state bodies, public administration bodies whose jurisdiction extends throughout the entire territory of Ukraine, regional and Kyiv City State Administrations (military administrations if established) must, within ten days from the date this resolution enters into force, ensure the review and approval of the criteria used to determine enterprises, institutions and organizations that are critically important for the functioning of the economy.
Following the review of the criteria, an analysis of enterprises’ compliance with these criteria must be carried out, and if a criterion on the basis of which an enterprise was designated as critically important is removed, the decision designating it as critically important must be revoked.
The government has established that decisions designating enterprises as critically important that are valid on the date this resolution enters into force shall remain valid for the period for which they were adopted, except for those that have been revoked.
It is noted that decisions of the Minister of Defense to increase the number of persons liable for military service eligible for reservation, adopted before Resolution No. 1608 entered into force, shall remain valid throughout the period of validity of the decision designating an enterprise as critically important, but no later than December 8, 2026. Decisions of the Ministry of Defense to increase reservation quotas adopted after December 8, 2025, shall remain valid for the duration of the decision on critical importance, but no longer than the period specified in the relevant decision of the ministry.
The Cabinet of Ministers has also established a Coordination Center for Organizing the Reservation of Persons Liable for Military Service during Mobilization and Wartime.
It is noted that enterprises operating in the following sectors may be designated as critically important for the functioning of the economy and ensuring the population’s essential needs during a special period: the defense-industrial complex; the fuel and energy complex; housing and communal services; the extractive industry; the processing industry; agro-industrial production, including ensuring food security; retail trade; construction; transport and logistics; information technology; banking; healthcare; communications; as well as enterprises carrying out emergency rescue and other urgent work (emergency rescue services); and enterprises operating in a sector approved by the Coordination Center following a substantiated request from a central executive authority or another state body responsible for formulating and/or implementing state policy in the relevant sector.
It has been established that the proportion of persons liable for military service eligible for reservation may exceed 50% based on the recommendations and proposals of the Coordination Center.
Substantiated proposals to increase reservation quotas shall be submitted to the Coordination Center by the relevant state body. Grounds for the Coordination Center to refuse to consider such proposals include, in particular, the establishment of facts of systematic violations by the head of a critically important institution of the legal requirements governing the organization and maintenance of military registration records. This includes, in particular, the existence of two or more documented violations within the past 12 months and/or the imposition of administrative liability on the head of the institution for committing such violations.
It has also been established that the number of persons liable for military service holding positions in representative offices of donor institutions and organizations implementing international technical assistance projects who are eligible for reservation must not exceed 50% of the number of employees liable for military service directly involved in carrying out the tasks of a single project, and must not exceed seven people.
Under a decision of the State Secretary of the Cabinet of Ministers, adopted taking into account the recommendations of the Coordination Center, the number of persons liable for military service eligible for reservation may exceed seven people, but must not exceed 50% of the total number of employees liable for military service.
The number of employees liable for military service who are eligible for reservation must not exceed 95% in critically important institutions designated by the Ministry of Defense as critically important in the defense-industrial complex, the fuel and energy complex, and their contracting organizations, or among domestic manufacturers of transformer equipment for the energy sector that carry out construction, repair, restoration, manufacture and/or supply of equipment, provide services, or implement other engineering and technical measures aimed at ensuring the uninterrupted operation of Ukraine’s integrated power system and gas transmission system during a special period.
The proportion of persons liable for military service eligible for reservation may exceed 95% under a decision of the Ministry of Defense or the Ministry of Energy, adopted taking into account the agreed recommendations of the Coordination Center.
Among other things, the government recommended that enterprises intending to obtain critically important status ensure the timely submission of documents to central executive authorities, other state bodies and public administration bodies in order to obtain such status.
Ukraine and Romania discussed the development of electricity interconnectors, the use of gas corridors, and the expansion of cooperation in the field of gas production during the first online meeting between Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy Denys Shmyhal and Romania’s Minister of Energy Dumitru Căsălicea.
“The agenda included the region’s energy security and the implementation of joint energy projects,” Shmyhal wrote on his Telegram channel.
According to him, the parties focused on the development of electricity interconnectors between the countries—which would provide nearly 1 GW of additional transmission capacity—and discussed deepening bilateral cooperation in this area.
Logistical issues related to fuel supplies were also discussed. Shmyhal informed his Romanian counterpart about Ukraine’s proposals to increase the capacity of border crossing points and open new transit routes.
Particular attention was paid to the use of the Vertical and Trans-Balkan gas corridors and the development of new interconnectors. The Ukrainian side noted Romania’s role in implementing the roadmap for the Trans-Balkan route, particularly in introducing more competitive tariff conditions.
“We also count on Romanian companies’ interest in storing part of their gas in Ukrainian gas storage facilities as part of the development of the Vertical Corridor,” Shmyhal noted.
Following the meeting, the parties agreed to work together to establish cooperation between Ukrainian and Romanian companies in the field of gas production and field development.
Source: https://t.me/Denys_Smyhal/13224
Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction should involve not only the rebuilding of destroyed infrastructure and enterprises, but also a structural transformation of the economy—specifically, a shift from a raw materials-based model to the production of high-value-added goods. This was stated by expert Stakovychenko Igor, according to the publication “Glavred.”
In his assessment, the reconstruction could serve as an opportunity for the technological modernization of Ukrainian industry, increasing productivity, and strengthening the competitiveness of domestic enterprises in international markets.
“Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction is not just the largest infrastructure project in the history of the independent state. It is a chance to change the structure of the national economy, to transition from a raw materials-based model to the production of high-value-added goods,” Stakovichenko noted.
According to a joint assessment by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission, and the UN, released in February 2026, the country’s needs for recovery and reconstruction over the next decade amount to nearly $588 billion.
Transportation infrastructure, the energy sector, housing, industry, and the agricultural sector will require the largest investments. At the same time, recovery efforts must continue even before the war ends, despite security risks.
Among the main challenges for the economy, experts highlight not only physical destruction but also a shrinking labor force, a shortage of skilled workers, logistical constraints, and insufficient access to financing. Under these conditions, restoring production capacity alone will not guarantee its effective operation.
Promising areas for development could include agricultural processing, energy, information technology, and the defense industry. In particular, the modernization of energy infrastructure creates opportunities for the development of distributed generation and improved energy efficiency, while defense technologies could serve as the foundation for establishing new high-tech manufacturing facilities.
At the same time, the private sector will remain a key factor in the country’s recovery. International financial assistance is necessary to overcome the consequences of the war; however, long-term economic growth will also require private investment, job creation, and the expansion of export capacity.
To attract capital, Ukraine must ensure the protection of property rights, access to credit, a predictable tax policy, a reduction in administrative burdens on entrepreneurs, and an effective judicial system.
According to Stakovichenko, the key criterion for successful reconstruction should not be the number of restored facilities or the amount of funds disbursed, but rather the economy’s ability to create new industries, jobs, and added value.
Thus, post-war reconstruction could serve as a tool for Ukraine’s transition to a more modern economic model focused on technology, productivity, and competitive manufacturing.
ECONOMY, INDUSTRY, INVESTMENT, RECONSTRUCTION, UKRAINE, СТАКОВИЧЕНКО
