According to Interfax-Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine has completed a significant portion of its negotiations and discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and will soon adopt and announce a new, substantial package of foreign exchange liberalization measures. As NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy stated during a press briefing on Thursday, the upcoming liberalization measures will apply to both individuals and businesses.
“We have completed a significant portion of the negotiations and discussions with our colleagues at the International Monetary Fund. Accordingly, a significant package of foreign exchange liberalization measures will be announced, affecting individuals, including businesses. The National Bank has always prioritized the interests of Ukrainian businesses regarding foreign exchange liberalization,” the regulator’s head noted.
Pyshnyy emphasized that stimulatory foreign exchange liberalization has remained one of the National Bank’s key priorities since 2023. According to him, the regulator supports measures that have a positive effect and stimulate the country’s economic recovery and development.
As previously reported, in the materials for the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, published on its website, the IMF notes that currency liberalization should depend on the fulfillment of key preconditions—including deeper foreign exchange markets, well-anchored inflation expectations, and sustained financial stability—while ensuring that these are balanced with economic needs.
According to experts.news, a new heat wave is sweeping across the Balkans and a significant portion of the Danube basin. From July 31 to August 6, temperatures in several countries in the region will reach 35–40 degrees, which will exacerbate the drought and worsen conditions on the Danube, where water levels have already dropped to long-term lows and, in some places, record lows.
The highest temperatures are forecast for Serbia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, and Hungary. In Belgrade, Novi Sad, Zagreb, Podgorica, Tirana, Skopje, and Budapest, temperatures are expected to reach 37–40 degrees. In Sarajevo, temperatures will reach 35–37 degrees.
In Bulgaria and Romania, the heat will initially be less intense, but by August 4–5, temperatures in Bucharest are expected to reach 36–37 degrees. In Moldova, temperatures will rise from 30 degrees on July 30 to 37 degrees on August 4–5. In the Odesa region and the Ukrainian part of the Danube Delta, temperatures are expected to range from 27–32 degrees, but nighttime temperatures in early August may reach 24 degrees.
The situation in the upper part of the basin also remains challenging. In Vienna, temperatures are forecast to reach up to 39 degrees on July 31, and up to 38–39 degrees on August 3–4. In Budapest, temperatures from July 31 through August 5 will mostly range from 38–40 degrees. Isolated thunderstorms in Austria may cause a temporary rise in water levels, but the prolonged heat wave will prevent the accumulated precipitation deficit from being quickly offset.
On the Danube, Sava, and Tisa rivers in Serbia, water levels are below the low navigational marks. In Croatia and Serbia, shallowing has already led to the formation of large sandbars, small vessels running aground, and old sunken ships resurfacing, posing an additional danger to navigation.
Due to insufficient depth, barges and tankers are utilizing only 30–40% of their carrying capacity in certain sections. In July, Serbia received only about 25% of its planned volume of imported fuel via the Danube. Production at Serbia’s largest hydroelectric power plant, “Džerdap-1,” has fallen to about one-third of its usual level.
In Romania, the inflow of water into the Danube has dropped to approximately 1,650 cubic meters per second, compared to an average July figure of about 4,750 cubic meters. Low water levels have led to the shutdown of both power units at the Cernavodă Nuclear Power Plant, which uses water from the Danube for cooling. In Hungary, restrictions have affected the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
In the Bulgarian-Romanian section, navigation has been restricted near the islands of Belene, Vardim, and Batyn. Vessels are forced to wait for passage clearance and reduce their cargo loads. At the end of July, a passenger motor ship also ran aground on the Danube, despite the restrictions on draft that were in effect.
Analysis of the Impacts on the Ten Danube Countries
In Germany and Austria, low outflow from the upper reaches means a reduction in the volume of water flowing downstream. Short-term downpours may cause localized rises in water levels, but sustained rainfall throughout the upper and middle basins is necessary for a stable recovery.
For Slovakia and Hungary, the main risks are related to restrictions on barge loading, a decline in river tourism, disruptions in the supply of fuel and raw materials, and strain on energy infrastructure. In Budapest, the Danube’s water level fell below previous lows, and tourist cruises on certain routes were suspended.
Croatia and Serbia are already feeling the direct impact of low water levels on the transport of fuel, industrial raw materials, and agricultural cargo, as well as on port operations. Sandbars and sunken vessels that have risen closer to the surface pose an additional hazard.
For Bulgaria and Romania, low water levels mean reduced vessel draft, queues at narrow sections, suspended ferry crossings, rising grain transportation costs, and risks to the energy sector. Romania is a key link in the route between Ukrainian Danube ports and Constanța, so delays are spreading throughout the entire Lower Danube corridor.
Moldova has a short outlet to the Danube via the port of Giurgiulești. It is located on the river’s maritime section and has greater depth than many inland ports, making it less directly vulnerable to the shallowing of the middle Danube. However, Moldovan cargo depends on the stable operation of the lower reaches of the river, the Romanian canals, and access to the Black Sea. Delays and rising freight rates on this route could increase the cost of the country’s imports and exports.
For Ukraine, the lower Danube is particularly important due to the operations of the ports of Reni, Izmail, and Ust-Dunaysk. Critically low water levels are already limiting the normal loading of barges and delaying the fulfillment of contracts. As of July 20, the cost of transportation from Reni and Izmail to Constanta has risen to approximately $28 per metric ton, and some vessels are losing 30–60% of their cargo capacity.
The continued heat through August 6 will intensify evaporation and maintain pressure on the Danube’s water regime. Even with local rains, any improvement will most likely be temporary, as the water shortage is affecting the entire basin—from Germany and Austria to Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
For shippers, the most likely consequences will be a further reduction in barge loading capacity, the use of more vessels to transport the same volume, rising freight rates, delays in the delivery of fuel, grain, and industrial raw materials, as well as the partial rerouting of cargo to rail and road transport.
A significant improvement in the situation is possible only after a prolonged period of rainfall in the Alps, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, and other parts of the basin.
GERMANY, HEAT, low water levels in the Danube, TRANSPORTATION, UKRAINE
According to Interfax-Ukraine, this article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of April 2026. The analysis is based on data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, the State Customs Service, the International Monetary Fund, Eurostat, BEA, BLS, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE, and other official institutions. Monthly and quarterly statistical data published after the end of the reporting period were used for April indicators.
Maksim Urakin, Ph.D. in Economics and founder of the information and analytical center Experts Club, presented an overview of the key trends that shaped the state of the Ukrainian and global economies in April and early May 2026.
Ukraine’s Macroeconomic Indicators
As of the end of April, the Ukrainian economy remained macro-financially stable, although inflationary, currency, and foreign trade risks had intensified. Compared to March, consumer inflation accelerated, international reserves declined for the third consecutive month, and the trade deficit continued to widen. At the same time, the government ensured funding for defense, social benefits, and critical budgetary needs, while the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained control over the foreign exchange market.
According to a preliminary estimate by the State Statistics Service, Ukraine’s real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 0.6% compared to the first quarter of 2025. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the decline was 0.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Nominal GDP amounted to 2,047.2 billion UAH. This negative trend was attributed to electricity shortages, infrastructure damage, delays in external financing, weak investment activity, and adverse weather conditions at the beginning of the year. At the same time, private consumption remained relatively stable, while the manufacturing sector, trade, and certain service sectors showed growth.
In its April forecast, the National Bank revised downward its estimate for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2026 to 1.3%. The main reasons were further damage to energy and logistics infrastructure, a larger electricity shortage, high energy prices, and weaker first-quarter results. The NBU expected economic growth to be supported by consumer demand and investments in reconstruction and the defense-industrial complex, but did not forecast a rapid transition to a sustainable recovery.
“The first-quarter results confirmed that the Ukrainian economy remains extremely sensitive to energy, military, and fiscal shocks. Positive domestic demand and business resilience can no longer fully offset the losses from infrastructure destruction, electricity shortages, and weak exports. The 1.3% growth forecast implies actual stagnation on a per-capita basis. “Therefore, the main priority should be not only to maintain financial stability but also to restore production capacity,” Urakin noted.
The inflation situation worsened in April. Consumer inflation accelerated to 8.6% year-over-year, up from 7.9% in March. Prices rose by 1.4% over the month and by 4.9% since the beginning of the year. Core inflation rose to 7.6% year-over-year, inflation for services reached 13.3%, and the increase in fuel prices hit 36.1% year-over-year.
The main source of inflationary pressure was the rise in energy and fuel prices, which increased business costs for logistics, electricity, and production. Additional factors included wage increases, the pass-through of the hryvnia’s earlier depreciation to consumer prices, and rising costs of certain food products and transportation services. Bread, grains, sunflower oil, fish, restaurant services, and household services saw the fastest price increases.
The NBU’s April forecast projected that inflation would accelerate to 9.4% by the end of 2026. A return to a steady decline was expected in 2027, when inflation was projected to slow to 6.5%, and to reach the 5% target in 2028.
On April 30, the National Bank’s Board kept the policy rate at 15% per annum. The regulator explained the decision by the need to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets, keep inflation expectations under control, and ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market. The NBU’s forecast called for keeping the rate at 15% at least until the second quarter of 2027. In the event of further intensification of price pressures, the regulator did not rule out the use of additional measures, including a rate hike.
“The acceleration of inflation to 8.6% and the sharp rise in fuel prices left the National Bank no room to continue its policy easing cycle. Under current conditions, the 15% rate is not so much a tool for curbing lending as it is a mechanism for safeguarding confidence in the hryvnia. The risk of a premature rate cut now significantly outweighs the potential short-term effect on economic activity,” Urakin emphasized.
The foreign exchange sector remained under control but required significant support from the regulator. As of May 1, 2026, Ukraine’s international reserves stood at $48.215 billion, having declined by 7.3% in April. This marked the third consecutive monthly decline in reserves.
In April, the NBU sold $3.577 billion on the foreign exchange market, while inflows into the government’s foreign currency accounts totaled only $377.9 million. $716.6 million was allocated to service and repay foreign-currency government debt, and Ukraine paid another $255.3 million to the IMF. The losses were partially offset by a positive revaluation of financial instruments amounting to $378 million. Despite the decline, the reserves were sufficient to finance 4.9 months of future imports.
“The decline in reserves from nearly $52 billion to $48.2 billion in a single month is significant, but not yet critical. Far more important is the underlying cause: the private foreign exchange market remains structurally in deficit, and international inflows do not always coincide with the timing of intervention needs and debt payments. Therefore, the stability of the hryvnia will continue to depend on the regularity of external financing and Ukraine’s ability to narrow the trade gap,” Urakin believes.
According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine’s trade turnover in January–April 2026 amounted to $46.1 billion. Imports reached $32.2 billion, while exports totaled $13.9 billion. Thus, the trade deficit for the four-month period was approximately $18.3 billion, with imports exceeding exports by a factor of 2.3.
Ukraine imported the most goods from China—$8.7 billion—followed by Poland—$3.1 billion—and Turkey—$2.2 billion. The main destinations for Ukrainian exports were Poland—$1.5 billion—Turkey—$1.2 billion—and Italy—$857 million.
In the import structure, machinery, equipment, and transportation accounted for $13.3 billion; fuel and energy products—$5.3 billion; and chemical industry products—$4.6 billion. Exports were primarily driven by food products at $8.5 billion, metals and metal products at $1.3 billion, and machinery, equipment, and transportation at $1.2 billion.
“The increase in the trade deficit to $18.3 billion in just four months is one of the main macroeconomic challenges. A significant portion of imports is objectively necessary—these include energy resources, equipment, transportation, and defense products. However, the export base remains too narrow and reliant on raw materials. Without the development of processing, machine building, the defense industry, and service exports, Ukraine will continue to offset the trade deficit with international aid and reserves,” Urakin emphasized.
The budgetary situation remained tense but under control. From January through April, the general fund of the state budget received 1.04 trillion UAH. Total cash expenditures from the general fund amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH, which is 13.8% more than during the same period in 2025. In April alone, General Fund revenues totaled 302.6 billion hryvnias, while expenditures amounted to 433.1 billion hryvnias.
Expenditures on security and defense over the four-month period reached 854.1 billion hryvnias, or 63.3% of all General Fund expenditures. In April, 283.1 billion hryvnias were allocated for these purposes. UAH 555.5 billion was spent on public sector wages and related benefits, UAH 235 billion on social security, UAH 205.4 billion on subsidies and transfers to enterprises, UAH 151.4 billion on goods and services, and UAH 103.2 billion on servicing the national debt.
International grants for January–April totaled 228.2 billion hryvnias, with 55.1 billion hryvnias received in April alone. In total, 1.43 trillion hryvnias flowed into the general and special funds of the state budget over the four-month period, while state budget cash expenditures amounted to 1.7 trillion hryvnias.
“The budget remains functional, but its structure is entirely dictated by the war. When nearly two-thirds of the general fund’s expenditures are directed toward defense and security, the capacity to finance long-term development remains limited. Under these conditions, it is particularly important that international aid cover the budget’s civilian needs, while domestic resources are directed as effectively as possible toward defense, energy, and industrial recovery,” Urakin noted.
The Global Economy
As of the end of April 2026, the global economy remained resilient, but the geopolitical and inflationary environment had deteriorated significantly. The war in the Middle East caused energy prices to rise, heightened inflationary expectations, and forced major central banks to postpone further monetary easing.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund projected global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, assuming the conflict would be limited in duration and scope. The IMF warned that a longer war, deepening geopolitical fragmentation, new trade disputes, and high public debt could significantly worsen the outlook.
The U.S. economy maintained positive momentum. According to the BEA’s revised estimate, real GDP in the first quarter of 2026 grew by 2.1% on an annualized basis compared with the previous quarter. Growth was driven by investment, exports, and government and consumer spending.
At the same time, inflation in the U.S. continued to accelerate. In April, the CPI rose by 3.8% year-over-year, following a 3.3% increase in March. Core inflation stood at 2.8%, while energy inflation reached 17.9%. In just one month, energy prices rose by 3.8%, and gasoline prices by 5.4%.
On April 29, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.5–3.75%. The Fed cited elevated inflation, rising global energy prices, and high uncertainty surrounding events in the Middle East.
The eurozone showed significantly weaker economic momentum. According to a preliminary Eurostat estimate released on April 30, eurozone GDP in the first quarter grew by only 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0.8% year-over-year. This indicated that the region’s economy was effectively stagnating.
Annual inflation in the eurozone accelerated to 3.0% in April, up from 2.6% in March. In the European Union, it rose to 3.2%. Services, energy, and food made the largest contributions to the rise in prices.
On April 30, the European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.0%, its main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and its marginal lending rate at 2.40%. The ECB emphasized that risks of rising inflation and a slowdown in economic growth had intensified due to the energy shock.
In the United Kingdom, by contrast, inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in April, down from 3.3% in March. Core CPI fell to 2.5%, and services inflation to 3.2%. At the same time, motor fuel prices rose significantly due to the external energy shock.
On April 30, the Bank of England kept its base rate at 3.75%. Eight members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported this decision, while one voted to raise the rate to 4%.
“April showed that the global cycle of rapid interest rate cuts has effectively been put on hold. The U.S. faced accelerating inflation to 3.8%, the eurozone to 3%, and central banks were once again forced to focus on energy risks. For Ukraine, this means more expensive global capital, more challenging conditions for exports, and additional pressure due to fuel prices,” Urakin noted.
China’s economy grew by 5.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. Nominal GDP reached 33.419 trillion yuan. Industrial production increased by 6.1%, the services sector by 5.2%, and foreign trade in goods by 15%. At the same time, real estate investment fell by 11.2%, indicating that structural problems persist. In April, China’s CPI rose by 1.2% year-over-year and by 0.3% month-over-month. Average inflation for January–April stood at 0.9%. Meanwhile, retail sales in April grew by only 0.2% year-over-year, indicating weakness in domestic consumer demand.
India maintained the highest growth rates among major economies. Following the transition to a new statistical base, the official estimate for real GDP growth in fiscal year 2025/26 was raised to 7.6%, and nominal GDP growth to 8.6%. The main drivers remained the services sector, domestic consumption, construction, and government investment.
Turkey again faced a sharp spike in inflation in April. Consumer prices rose by 4.18% month-over-month and by 32.37% year-over-year. Year-to-date inflation stood at 14.64%. The figure exceeded March’s level of 30.87%, indicating the instability of the disinflation process. At the same time, Turkey’s GDP grew by approximately 3.6% in 2025, confirming the economy’s ability to sustain business activity even amid high price pressures.
Brazil showed more balanced dynamics, although inflation also accelerated. The country’s GDP grew by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 12.7 trillion reais at current prices. In April 2026, the IPCA index rose by 0.67% month-over-month, and annual inflation reached 4.39%, up from 4.14% in March. The largest contributions came from food, medical goods, and services.
“China, India, Turkey, and Brazil demonstrate four distinct development models. China maintains high growth rates thanks to industry and exports, but still faces challenges with domestic demand and real estate. India relies on demographics, services, and investment. Turkey sustains growth at the cost of very high inflation. Brazil is moving more slowly but is trying to strike a balance between economic activity and price stability. “For Ukraine, the main conclusion is that long-term growth is impossible without its own manufacturing, technological, and export base,” Urakin believes.
Conclusions
As of the end of April 2026, Ukraine maintained macrofinancial stability, but key indicators pointed to increasing risks. Real GDP contracted by 0.6% year-over-year in the first quarter; inflation accelerated to 8.6% in April, with core inflation rising to 7.6%, while the policy rate remained at 15%.
International reserves fell to $48.2 billion, a decrease of 7.3% over the month. The trade deficit for January–April reached $18.3 billion. Revenues to the general fund of the state budget totaled 1.04 trillion UAH, while expenditures amounted to 1.35 trillion UAH. UAH 854.1 billion, or 63.3% of all general fund expenditures, was allocated to security and defense.
Positive factors included substantial reserves, a controlled exchange rate policy, international financing, steady consumer demand, business adaptability, and the development of defense production. The main risks were the continuation of the war, the destruction of energy infrastructure, rising fuel prices, labor shortages, weak exports, and the budget’s dependence on foreign aid.
The global economy also entered a more challenging period. The IMF projected global growth of 3.1% in 2026 but warned that downside risks predominated. Inflation in the U.S. accelerated to 3.8%, and in the eurozone to 3.0%, while the central banks of the U.S., the eurozone, and the United Kingdom kept interest rates unchanged. China grew by 5% in the first quarter, India maintained a growth rate of over 7%, while Turkey once again faced inflation exceeding 32%.
“April 2026 showed that Ukraine’s stabilization model remains viable, but its financial buffer is shrinking. The simultaneous acceleration of inflation, depletion of reserves, and widening of the trade deficit signal that external aid cannot be the sole foundation of economic stability. Ukraine needs to transition from financing its immediate survival to creating a new production model. This model should be based on energy self-sufficiency, the defense-industrial complex, agricultural processing, machine building, logistics, digital technologies, and exports of high-value-added products. “Only such a transition can transform macrofinancial stability from a temporary safety net into the foundation for long-term development,” concluded Maksym Urakin.
Ukrainian male and female veterans won medals at the 2026 World Medieval Combat Championships in Denmark, according to the Ministry of Veterans Affairs.
“From July 23 to 26, 2026, Spøttrup Castle in Denmark hosted the 2026 Medieval Combat World Championships—one of the largest international medieval combat tournaments, which annually brings together athletes from dozens of countries around the world… Ukraine was represented at the competition by the Ukrainian National Medieval Combat Team, which included male and female veterans as well as active-duty military personnel. They have already proven their dedication to Ukraine by defending it with weapons in hand, and now they are proudly representing our country on the international sports stage,” the ministry’s statement reads.Specifically, Ukrainian veterans won one first-place finish, six second-place finishes, and four third-place finishes in various competitions.
It is noted that the Ukrainian veterans’ team’s participation in the 2026 Medieval Combat World Championships is not only a sporting representation of the state but also a vivid testament to the resilience of Ukrainian veterans, their strength of spirit, and their drive for new victories.
Medieval combat is a modern international full-contact sport in which participants compete in historically accurate armor using safe replicas of medieval weapons. The World Championships include both individual and team disciplines.
The Ukrainian men’s épée fencing team won silver medals at the 2026 World Championships, currently being held in Hong Kong.
The team consisted of Roman Svitkar, Nikita Koshman, Yevhen Makienko, and Mykhailo Krasniuk. This is Ukraine’s second medal at the current World Championships and the sixth time in history that Ukrainian épée fencers have stood on the podium at the World Championships in team competition.
On their way to the final, the Ukrainians defeated the teams from Sweden (45–35), Poland (41–40), Switzerland (39–37), and Israel (45–44). In the final match, the Ukrainian team lost to Kazakhstan with a score of 40–45.
For Roman Svichkar, this is the third World Championship medal of his career; for Nikita Koshman, it is his second; while Yevhen Makienko and Mykhailo Krasniuk earned their first World Championship medals.
The last time the Ukrainian men’s épée team won a World Championship medal was in 2019, when they also took silver.
As of June 2026, approximately 3.9 million people in Ukraine remain internally displaced, according to a report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM).
“Although the proportion of internally displaced persons has remained at about 12% of the population since 2023, the report shows that the longer displacement lasts, the more difficult it is for families to meet their basic needs. Nearly seven out of ten internally displaced persons have been away from home for more than two years. This indicates the increasingly protracted nature of displacement in Ukraine,” the report states.
At the same time, people continue to be forced to leave their homes: in January–June of this year alone, approximately 132,000 people were forced to flee.
“Stable displacement figures should not be interpreted as a sign of stable living conditions. Many displaced families are depleting their savings, cutting back on essential expenses—including healthcare—and moving to less suitable housing in an effort to meet their basic needs. Long-term support remains essential to help people regain stability and make informed and voluntary decisions about their future,” said Dejan Keserović, Deputy Head of the IOM Mission in Ukraine.
According to the report, 87% of displaced families were forced to resort to at least one coping strategy to manage their situation. Most commonly, people spent their savings (75%), reduced their use of utilities (59%), and cut back on healthcare expenses (53%). One in five households also reported moving to lower-quality housing, and 17% reported being behind on rent payments.
Safety remains the main criterion in people’s decisions about the future: 82% of internally displaced persons indicated that they would like to return home only after hostilities have ceased. At the same time, an increasing number of people are considering the possibility of integrating into the communities where they currently live: the proportion of those interested in local integration rose from 51% in March to 58% in June 2026. This underscores the need to provide support to displaced families where they are, while also monitoring the risks of premature or unsafe returns.
Approximately 2.15 million people, or 56% of all internally displaced persons in Ukraine, come from territories that were fully or partially occupied at the time of the survey. They are more likely to face protracted displacement, significant hardships, and more limited opportunities for return.
“The report’s findings show why emergency assistance alone is not enough. People need long-term support in the areas of housing, livelihoods, access to healthcare, protection, and other essential services. This will help them make informed and voluntary decisions—whether to integrate where they currently live, move to another location, or safely return home when conditions permit,” IOM emphasized.
The report is based on the latest survey of the Ukrainian population, conducted by IOM from April 23 to June 30, 2026, with support from the Humanitarian Fund for Ukraine, the European Union, and the governments of Canada and Sweden.
