Yevgen Osipov, CEO of the agricultural holding “Kernel,” anticipates—in a stress scenario—a 12-million-metric-ton decline in grain production in Ukraine next year due to a possible reduction in planted acreage by farmers, if no solution is found within the next six months to resume exports, according to a correspondent for the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“It is difficult to make such forecasts today. We hope that some solutions will be found in the next six months. If no practical solution is found, then, objectively speaking, the area under cultivation will be reduced. In such a stress scenario, we estimated this would result in a shortfall of 12 million metric tons of grain next year,” he said at the “Forbes Ukraine” Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to Osipov, with seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 20 million metric tons of the 50 million metric tons of agricultural products needed—that is, 40% of the required volume—so companies are having to pivot to other business models.
“Based on our own experience with the most recent export corridors, about 50% of the operations were inefficient; we need to find new ways. Because right now, for businesses, it’s a matter of building a new business model. In other words, the old business model doesn’t work there anymore. That’s why, for our part, we’re focusing on processing and exporting processed products,” Osipov noted.
According to him, under its new business model, “Kernel” is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value, while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers, pay them, and export processed products.
Osipov also added that, due to security and logistical constraints as well as external factors, it is currently not realistic to expect that the Danube ports will be able to handle the same volume of shipments that Ukraine had in 2022–2023.
As previously reported, in its September report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine by 0.6 million metric tons compared to the August forecast—to 26 million metric tons—and its estimate for other grains (excluding wheat and corn) by 0.5 million metric tons, to 7.29 million metric tons, and maintained its corn production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons. Thus, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s total grain production this year at 65.09 million metric tons.
Ukraine’s retail trade turnover in January–August 2026 rose by 8.8% compared with the same period in 2025, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS).
According to its data, in nominal terms, retail trade turnover in January–August of this year amounted to 1.968 trillion UAH.
In August, retail trade turnover increased by 3.3% compared to July of this year, and by 7.6% year-over-year compared to August 2025.
The State Statistics Service notes that retail trade turnover (for legal entities) in January–August 2026 increased by 8.9% compared to January–August 2025, totaling nearly 1.363 trillion UAH.
Retail trade turnover in August rose by 3.1% compared to July of this year and by 7.5% year-over-year (as of August 2025).
According to the statistics agency, retail turnover in Ukraine grew by 7.5% in 2025.
The State Statistics Service notes that these figures do not include territories temporarily occupied by the Russian Federation or parts of territories where hostilities are (or were) taking place.
Electricity exports from Ukraine on September 14–20 decreased by 17.3% compared to the previous week, to 109.3 thousand MWh, while imports increased by 12.2%—to 18.6 thousand MWh.
“Overall, electricity sales were nearly six times higher than purchases,” the DIXI Group analytical center reported on Wednesday, citing data from Energy Map.
As the center noted, weather conditions had the greatest impact on electricity trade during the reporting period. A cloudy start to the week, combined with a gradual seasonal decline in solar power generation, reduced the daytime power surplus, and the largest decline in exports occurred during daylight hours. At the same time, comfortable temperatures, mostly without precipitation, did not create peak loads on the power grid. Industrial consumption remained low due to Russian attacks.
According to Energy Map, Hungary accounted for the largest share of last week’s exports—53.8 thousand MWh, or 49.2%. Moldova accounted for 36,2 thousand MWh (33.1%), Romania for 19,0 thousand MWh (17.4%), and Poland for 0,3 thousand MWh (0.3%).
Compared to the previous week, exports declined across all destinations: to Poland by 72% (due to insignificant supply volumes), to Romania by 28%, to Moldova by 22%, and to Hungary by 8%. Exports to Slovakia remained at zero.
Hungary also remained the main source of imports, accounting for 8,900 MWh (47.8%). Poland accounted for 5,900 MWh (31.4%), Romania for 3,800 MWh (20.6%), and Moldova for 0.04 thousand MWh (0.2%).
As previously reported, in August 2026, electricity imports to Ukraine increased by 5% compared to July—to 184,000 MWh—while exports jumped by 63.8% to 380,900 MWh, marking the highest monthly export volume since September 2025. As a result, Ukraine maintained its status as a net exporter for the second consecutive month: sales exceeded purchases by nearly double.
Around $680 billion in financing annually is needed to transform global agrifood systems by 2030, but the effectiveness of international programs will depend not only on the amount of funding, but also on farmers’ and agribusinesses’ access to finance, markets and economic incentives.
According to SEEDS, financing issues were discussed in Rome during the FAO Global Conference “Actions in One Health in Agrifood Systems,” which took place on September 21–23 and was dedicated to implementing the One Health approach in agrifood systems.
According to FAO estimates, the annual financing requirement for the transformation of agrifood systems in low- and middle-income countries amounts to around $680 billion. Of this amount, approximately $425–426 billion should go directly to investments, with another approximately $255 billion allocated to social protection systems.
International expert on sustainable agriculture and agrifood systems and founder of Sapienza.media Kateryna Zvierieva, who participated in the conference, stressed that the volume of international financing alone does not guarantee results if resources do not reach direct producers.
“We can develop effective environmental and veterinary solutions, but they will not become widespread practice if the farmer does not have access to financing, sales markets and economic incentives for their implementation,” she said in a comment to SEEDS.
Rwanda became one example of effective fundraising. About $25 million in financing from the Pandemic Fund was accompanied by the mobilization of approximately another $160 million in additional resources and related investments. The program is aimed at strengthening epidemiological surveillance, early warning systems and coordination between human and animal health services. FAO, WHO and UNICEF are involved in its implementation.
During the conference, programs in Zimbabwe and Afghanistan were also discussed, where the One Health approach is used to combine veterinary safety, healthcare, food security and support for agricultural production. Participants stressed that animal diseases, climate risks and water-related problems often extend beyond individual states and require regional investment programs.
The reduction of international assistance remains a separate problem. Representatives of the European Commission drew attention to the need to involve the World Bank, IFC, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and private capital more broadly in financing, since grant resources are insufficient for a large-scale transformation of the agricultural sector.
For Ukraine, these approaches are particularly important due to the need to simultaneously restore agricultural production, infrastructure, the veterinary system and water resources, as well as adapt the sector to EU standards.
According to Zvierieva, international programs should be accessible not only to large institutions, but also directly to agricultural enterprises, cooperatives and small producers. Farmers, in her opinion, should be involved in the development of such programs already at the planning stage, since it is they who can assess the real cost of introducing new technologies and the economic risks for farms.
FAO also emphasizes that without the involvement of the private sector, financial institutions and direct producers, it will be impossible to overcome the global financing gap in agrifood systems.
Source: SEEDS — “$680 billion for the transformation of agrifood systems”
Ukrainian transport companies may receive compensation amounting to 10–15% of their investments in the modernization of vehicles and equipment to meet European Union standards, according to Gabriel Blanc, head of the working group on Ukraine’s reconstruction at the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighborhood.
According to “Interfax-Ukraine”, this mechanism applies to companies that take out loans from Ukrainian banks and invest in technologies that meet EU standards.
“We have what is known as a cashback mechanism: if a company takes out a loan from a Ukrainian bank and invests in technologies that meet EU standards, we can offer a refund of 10–15% of the investment amount,” Blanc noted during the event “Regional Business Dialogues on European Integration: The Transportation Sector” in Lviv.
According to him, Ukraine has currently fully implemented less than 10% of EU transport rules and standards, and has partially implemented less than half. Key tasks include harmonizing social and market regulations in the road transport sector, strengthening enforcement of compliance, and developing inspection and investigation bodies for rail and water transport.
Among the investments that Ukrainian carriers may need to make in order to operate according to European standards, Blanc cited the installation of second-generation smart tachographs, the purchase of Euro 6-compliant vehicles, and compliance with driver working time requirements. He noted that for small and medium-sized enterprises, such costs can be substantial, especially during wartime.
At the same time, the European Commission views this modernization as an investment in Ukrainian businesses’ future access to the EU transport market and their long-term competitiveness.
Support for transportation companies can be provided both directly to large Ukrainian enterprises and through banks. Currently, the ten largest Ukrainian banks are utilizing risk-sharing mechanisms, which helps reduce credit risks, particularly for small businesses, enterprises in frontline regions, and relocated companies.
The total portfolio under the risk-sharing mechanism already exceeds EUR 6 billion. The EU plans to further scale up financing programs for Ukrainian companies that are investing in bringing their operations into compliance with European standards.
The Lviv region is preparing to sign an agreement to develop a feasibility study for the construction of the Warsaw–Rava-Ruska–Bryukhovychi–Lviv European-standard railway line.
According to “Interfax-Ukraine”, this was announced by Maksym Kozytskyi, head of the Lviv Regional Military Administration, during the forum “Regional Dialogues with Business on European Integration” in Lviv on September 24.
According to him, the new line is intended to provide a European-standard rail connection between Lviv and Warsaw. Options are being considered for the line to terminate either at Lviv’s main railway station or at the Sknylivsky station.
“An agreement on the development of a feasibility study is set to be signed soon. This feasibility study will be submitted to the railway authority, prepared in accordance with their technical specifications, and will cover a narrow-gauge connection between Lviv and Warsaw,” Kozytskyi noted.
Funding for the development of the feasibility study is planned to come from regional and local budgets.
Separately, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration highlighted the extension of the European-gauge track to Uzhhorod as a promising project. In his view, this could partially relieve traffic at the road border crossings on the western border and create additional opportunities for the development of the Carpathian region.
Among other railway projects, Kozytskyi mentioned the already completed Nyzhankovychi–Khyriv–Smilnytsia line. According to him, the Ukrainian side has completed the necessary work, and the further launch of the route depends on agreements with the Polish side.
He also highlighted the need to expand certain sections of the Kyiv–Chop highway. The development of rail and road infrastructure, according to Kozytskyi, should strengthen the role of the Lviv region as one of Ukraine’s key logistics hubs.
The Warsaw–Lviv standard-gauge railway project is of particular importance for integrating Ukraine’s transportation system into the European network, as the standard track gauge in most EU countries is 1,435 mm, while Ukraine traditionally uses a 1,520 mm gauge.
