U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed during talks in Beijing to expand cooperation in trade and agriculture, and also discussed the situation in the Middle East, Ukraine, and on the Korean Peninsula, according to CCTV.
The meeting took place on May 14 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing during Trump’s state visit to China. According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry and Xinhua News Agency, the leaders of the two countries discussed the bilateral agenda and exchanged views on key international and regional issues, including the situation in the Middle East, the crisis in Ukraine, and the Korean Peninsula.
Xi Jinping stated that China and the U.S. should build “constructive and strategically stable relations,” and also emphasized the importance of a cautious approach to the Taiwan issue, calling it the most critical aspect of Sino-American relations. According to Xi, mishandling this issue could lead to a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations.
According to the official Chinese account of the talks, Trump expressed his readiness to work with Xi to strengthen communication and cooperation, resolve differences, and develop U.S.-China relations. He also introduced the Chinese leader to representatives of American business who had traveled to China with him.
The talks took place against the backdrop of efforts to maintain the trade truce between the U.S. and China, reached in October 2025. Topics discussed included U.S. companies’ access to the Chinese market, Chinese investment in the U.S., trade, energy, and agricultural supplies.
For Ukraine, the very fact that the Ukrainian issue was discussed at the level of U.S. and Chinese leaders is significant. Beijing retains influence over Moscow and remains one of the key external players whose stance shapes the diplomatic context surrounding the war. However, the published reports do not indicate that the parties reached any specific agreements specifically regarding Ukraine.
The situation in the Middle East was a separate topic of discussion. Against the backdrop of tensions surrounding Iran and risks to energy supplies, the U.S. is interested in China playing a more active role in mitigating risks to global trade and energy routes. Washington is also seeking economic outcomes from the meeting, including trade and investment agreements.
EU member states and the European Parliament have so far failed to agree on the internal mechanism for implementing the trade agreement with the United States, despite pressure from Washington and the threat of new tariffs on European automobiles.
Negotiations between representatives of the European Parliament and EU countries took place on the evening of May 6 and lasted more than six hours, but no final decision was reached. According to Bloomberg, Cyprus, which currently holds the presidency of the Council of the European Union, confirmed that the parties discussed possible amendments to the transatlantic agreement concluded in the summer of 2025, but failed to reach a final compromise.
The issue concerns EU-US trade arrangements announced in July 2025. Under the agreement, Brussels is expected to abolish tariffs on a range of American industrial goods, while Washington maintains a baseline tariff rate of 15% on a significant share of European exports. Stricter conditions remain in place for steel, aluminum, and copper, including 50% tariffs.
The main dispute within the EU is related not so much to the principle of the agreement itself as to guarantees in case the United States fails to fulfill its obligations. The European Parliament insists on additional safeguard mechanisms, including the possibility of suspending concessions if Washington violates the arrangements. Some EU countries, by contrast, support a faster approval of the deal in order to avoid further escalation of the tariff conflict.
The situation escalated after threats by US President Donald Trump to raise tariffs on cars and trucks from the EU from 15% to 25%. Brussels fears that this would hit Germany and other countries with major automotive exports particularly hard. According to Reuters, most EU countries are interested in completing the procedure as quickly as possible, while the European Parliament demands stronger safeguards be built into the agreement.
Chairman of the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade Bernd Lange stated that the negotiations had moved forward, but that “there is still a way to go” before a final decision is reached. The next round of consultations between the European Parliament and EU member states is scheduled for May 19 in Strasbourg.
For the European Union, this dispute is a test of its ability to conduct a unified trade policy under pressure from the United States. Some countries emphasize the need to quickly remove the risk of new tariffs for industry, while others fear that an overly soft EU position would create a precedent in which Washington could secure concessions through threats of additional duties.
For European businesses, the main uncertainty is currently linked to the automotive sector, industrial supplies, and transatlantic production chains. If the EU fails to coordinate its internal position in time, the risk of higher US tariffs will remain, and trade relations between the world’s two largest economic blocs could once again enter a phase of acute confrontation.
According to Serbian Economist, Ukraine has resumed negotiations with Serbia on establishing a free trade area, as the current level of trade between the two countries remains relatively low. Ukrainian Ambassador to Serbia Oleksandr Litvinenko stated this in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine. According to him, a free trade zone could revitalize bilateral economic ties and, at the same time, fit naturally into the European integration of both countries. Among the promising sectors, the diplomat cited mechanical engineering, particularly agricultural machinery.
For the Serbian Economist, what matters in this story is not only the political signal but also the plain arithmetic. According to official data from the Statistical Office of Serbia, in 2025, Serbian exports to Ukraine amounted to €179.6 million, imports from Ukraine to €212.2 million, and total trade turnover reached approximately €391.8 million. At the same time, Ukraine’s share of Serbian exports and imports remains at only about 0.5%, which indeed confirms the thesis that the scale of trade is still limited.
The current range of trade between the countries still appears rather narrow and largely consists of raw materials. According to data from the Ukrainian Embassy in Serbia, the main items of Ukrainian exports to Serbia are iron ore and ferrous metals, wood and wood products, as well as plastics and polymer materials. More detailed product statistics show that among the largest Ukrainian shipments to Serbia were iron ore worth $61.6 million, hot-rolled iron products worth $11.9 million, and semi-finished iron products worth $8.92 million.
From the Serbian side, exports to Ukraine currently consist mainly of fertilizers, plastics and polymer materials, electrical machinery, ferrous metals, soap, and rubber.
If we look at the potential impact of the FTA in practical terms, the most logical outcome appears to be an expansion of trade in those niches where one side can offer the other either cheaper or scarcer goods. For Ukraine, in addition to the metallurgical and raw material products already being exported to Serbia, these could include agricultural machinery, certain types of metal products, wood processing, value-added food products, and niche consumer goods.
For Serbia, the most potentially attractive goods on the Ukrainian market in the event of an FTA could be fertilizers, polymers, electrical equipment, pharmaceuticals, rubber products, tires, and auto parts. In other words, an FTA could theoretically shift trade from a narrow exchange of raw materials toward a greater number of processed goods on both sides.
A separate sensitive issue is Serbia’s status in the WTO. Serbia is still not a member of the World Trade Organization. The latest European Commission report on Serbia explicitly states that the process has stalled primarily due to the lack of a WTO-compliant law on GMOs and due to unfinished market access negotiations with a small number of WTO members. Belgrade has not concluded some of the bilateral negotiations required for WTO accession, and older Serbian documents listed Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, and the United States among the problematic partners.
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Trade in Ukrainian goods in 2025 remained highly concentrated and with a pronounced import bias, according to a study by the Experts Club analytical center on the top 50 trading partners as of December 31, 2025.
As noted in the study, the top ten countries account for about two-thirds of total trade, with China alone accounting for almost a fifth of turnover. Experts Club founder Maxim Urakin emphasizes: “The overall picture is consistent with the aggregated statistics for 2025: Ukraine’s imports are estimated at about $84.8 billion, exports at about $40.3 billion, and trade turnover at about $125.1 billion.”
China has become Ukraine’s largest partner in terms of trade turnover in the TOP-50 sample – $21.04 billion, with imports of $19.23 billion and exports of $1.82 billion, resulting in a negative balance of $17.41 billion. Urakin believes that “there will be no quick solutions to balance the trade deficit with China without strengthening Ukraine’s industrial export positions” and suggests focusing on localizing part of the supply chains for Ukrainian needs, contract manufacturing, and expanding agricultural and food exports with deeper processing.
Poland ranked second in terms of trade turnover with $13.02 billion, followed by Germany with $9.06 billion, Turkey with $8.95 billion, and the US with $5.69 billion. Commenting on the European direction, Urakin draws attention to the risks of regulation: “The risk factor here is not so much economic as regulatory and political… the issue of quotas and restrictions periodically returns to the agenda.” In his opinion, the key to expanding presence in the EU market is “quality of entry” — standards, traceability, certification, and integration into value chains.
The study also notes the role of markets where Ukraine has a positive trade balance, as well as the importance of trade hubs and logistics. In particular, among the areas that could potentially provide rapid growth with reduced logistics costs and stable maritime routes, the countries where exports already exceed imports stand out, as well as European logistics hubs through which part of Ukraine’s flows pass.
Speaking about the prospects for 2026, Experts Club highlights as key factors the conditions of access to EU markets, institutional agreements with regional partners, and logistics, including the security of sea routes. “The most applicable growth points for Ukraine are a combination of markets with an already positive balance and instruments that reduce barriers: agreements, standardization, and logistics,” Urakin concluded.
Last month, BETS PE held 118 trading sessions for the purchase and sale of natural gas in the medium and long-term market, as well as 4 trading sessions each day in the short-term market.
BETS formed 301 starting positions in January, February, March 2026, in the GTS and UGS. In total, about 66 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold in the medium and long-term market. In the short-term market, 7.05 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold.
In January, the quoted prices in the mid- and long-term market ranged from UAH 19,312 to UAH 22,640 excluding VAT. There was an upward trend in prices during the second half of the month. The initiators of the auctions formed starting positions mainly for sale.
Last month, deals were concluded in the “Transborder” section on the terms of delivery at a point on the border. The total volume under these agreements amounted to 100.44 thousand mbtu at prices in the range of 34.58 – 35.6 euros.
Natural gas was also sold using differentials from the TTF: 17 million cubic meters at a premium of EUR 7.69-9.62.
On the short-term market, exchange rates fluctuated daily in the range of UAH 19,300-22,296.99 excluding VAT with an upward trend. In addition to the intraday market, deals were concluded on the UEEX day-ahead market with a total volume of 1,351 thousand cubic meters.
“January confirmed the continued high activity on the natural gas market, despite price volatility. Although trading volumes decreased compared to the previous month, participants remain involved in transactions in the medium and short-term segments of the domestic market, unlike in December, when there was more activity in the trade of imported natural gas. The Ukrainian Energy Exchange continues to ensure the stable operation of the trading infrastructure, creating effective conditions for interaction between trading participants,” said UEEX CEO O. Kovalenko.
In 2025, due to changes in trade rules with the European Union, Ukraine was unable to supply EUR2 billion worth of agricultural products to foreign markets, 95% of which were not supplied to the European market, said Oleksandra Avramenko, chair of the European Integration Committee of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC), at the conference “Agribusiness in Ukraine.”
The expert recalled that 2025 was a generous year for Ukraine’s cooperation with the European Union. For the first time in history, Ukraine had three trade frameworks with the EU. The first was autonomous trade measures (ATMs), i.e., unilateral references introduced by the European Union to support Ukraine. They were in effect until June 2025. The second was a transition period after the end of the ATMs, which lasted five months. The third came into effect on October 29, 2025.
“Destabilization and lack of predictability (in trade with the EU – IF-U) led to the fact that as of December 1, 2025, Ukraine had not exported EUR 2 billion worth of agricultural products, 95% of which were not exported to the European Union. In other words, products that were not exported to the EU were not exported anywhere. This is quite critical in our circumstances,” Avramenko noted.
She stressed that having a new trade regime is much better than not having one.
The expert expressed hope that during 2025, Ukrainian exporters will gain some experience in supplying products to the European market under the new rules and will have a better understanding of the new trade mechanism in 2026.
Avramenko also recalled the Cyber Measures mechanism introduced by the EU as part of the updated trade agreement, which allows any country that feels pressure from Ukrainian agricultural products to apply to the European Commission, which will conduct an investigation and, if necessary, impose restrictions on imports from Ukraine.
The expert also stressed the importance of Ukraine implementing the European Union standards set out in 20 regulations by the end of 2028.
